Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Note the differences between the Gaussians of the 'Large' Forest (Carryover Channel) from the previous day and the 'Smaller' Forest or 'Tree' level Gaussians. Always know 'where you are' and what context (resolution level) through which you currently monitor the markets.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1402684>
 

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Quote from Mr_Black:

Hi Spider...How do you qualify 9:30 and 9:40 Bars on My chart
FTT > FBO's or Dip's....??????? I mean 10:30 and 10:40 am
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The 10:30 bar represents a volatility expansion of the down channel. The 10:40 bar shows an FTT (and a retrace to the right trend line of the up channel) where Price Fails to Break Out (FBO).

- Spydertrader
 
Chart for this morning.

Did not make real mistakes. Caught the first taped FTT and then the ride down to 1405. The subsequent move up caught me by surprise so my profit was very small (got out at RTL breaking). But of course I should have drawn the down channel at bars 10:05, 10:10 and 10:15. Then I would have noticed the taped FTT at 10:15 and / or break of RTL right there.

Another indication was increasing black volume from bars 10:20 - 10:25 after decreasing black volume. Always obvious afterwards :-)

I'm getting a good feeling for the breakouts.

Currently I'm short from around 1415 .
regards.
Ivo
 

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Spydertrader,

I had annotated the red 10:30 bar as a Point 3 on the downward channel. It had all the markings of a Point 3 with progressively decreasing black volume that led to it. However, it did not turn out that way.

How/when could one have known that this was not a Point3 ? I keep having this recurring problem.

Edit: I nailed the Point 3 at 11:20 on the upward channel though.

Thanks.
 
Quote from ivob:


Another indication was increasing black volume from bars 10:20 - 10:25 after decreasing black volume.
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I have black volume decreasing between 10:15-10:30.
 
Quote from KK70:

How/when could one have known that this was not a Point3 ? I keep having this recurring problem. I nailed the Point 3 at 11:20 on the upward channel though.
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The bar you marked as a Point Three, also turned into an FTT at its low. Easy to see based on your view of the near past bars, how you could view the Price Action as a Point Three Down Channel - espcially, if you missed the earlier Point Three Down Channel (See chart above). If you note the YM during that same time frame (Attached), you see the YM within an up channel during the same time period you mention above. However, even if you missed all of these clues, the next bar (10:35 AM) gives you increasing black Volume. Even if you missed the increasing black on a PRV basis, Price breaking through your RTL is the market's way of saying, the down channel has ended.

After a Point Three, one must see increasing volume in the same direction of the trend, and within the size of the current Point Three Forest or Tree (continuation). When a trader does not see a signal for continuation, then the only other possible conclusion is change.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1402944>
 

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ES 19 Mar 07
Managed to recognise most of today's pt3's far too late to make use of them. Also, did not recognise context of carry over channel.
 

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