Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Due to the rather large Forest Size Today, I found myself annotaing (1,2,3) on the smaller Forests / Trees and watching the Gaussians on the larger fractals - bigger 'Forests'.
- Spydertrader
Hi,
The UV of ES at closing is only 0.04, quite low of 65-day avg and down 2pts, while YM is pretty high at 10.02 and lost 5pts, not much. I wonder why??
Didn't realize the degree of importance of Gaussian untill doing realtime. Thanks to Spyder and Mak and others for your teaching.
So, may I say, volume come before price is a statement not an assumption.
The UV of ES at closing is only 0.04, quite low of 65-day avg and down 2pts, while YM is pretty high at 10.02 and lost 5pts, not much. I wonder why??
Didn't realize the degree of importance of Gaussian untill doing realtime. Thanks to Spyder and Mak and others for your teaching.
So, may I say, volume come before price is a statement not an assumption.
Hmm - this morning was a bit of a train wreck in areas totally unrelated to trading, and I guess I allowed that baggage to come across in the message I was attempting to convey to you. That is, I sincerely admire, respect and appreciate all that is presented within this journal - from both you and the A-team and all the various posters who are "doing the work".
It is I who should apologize for posting w/ ruffled feathers, if that is how it was received - think nothing of it. I'm taking a mulligan, and writing it off as a momentary lapse in normal behavior - heheh.
Have a nice evening ...
Computer glitches all day left me out of the market except for 1.50 points in between freezes and corrupt files.
However I went back and decided to look for forrest channels and added the channels.
My AH HAAAA moment today was that each point 1,2 or 3 is often made up of tapes in sort of a Z pattern. As the chart attached indicates you can have one leg off of the point 1 identified after the fact when a direction change occurs. Then a tape moves in a retracement type of pattern off of Point 2 and itself reverses on a breakout of that tape forming Point 3. If you are late to the action you can go in on the breakout of the channel that is formed when the market moves off of Point 2, waiting for the Point 3. This is on the Forrest level. In my chart it is the first dark green upward channel with the Points and tapes identified.
The larger the moves the easier it is to find of course. In the first channel I mentioned above you could go long on the point 3 breakout and ride until the FTT or BO later on. For example, you go long at the 9:25 AM bar close at 1403.25 and you would be kept in I believe until the 9:50 AM bar near 1406.50.
This helps me on large swings to find the Point 3 entry and catch a potentially long move if I am not already in on the move from Point 1 to 2.
Anyway, today's channels in hindsight made it a little easier to visualize 1,2 and 3s.
However I went back and decided to look for forrest channels and added the channels.
My AH HAAAA moment today was that each point 1,2 or 3 is often made up of tapes in sort of a Z pattern. As the chart attached indicates you can have one leg off of the point 1 identified after the fact when a direction change occurs. Then a tape moves in a retracement type of pattern off of Point 2 and itself reverses on a breakout of that tape forming Point 3. If you are late to the action you can go in on the breakout of the channel that is formed when the market moves off of Point 2, waiting for the Point 3. This is on the Forrest level. In my chart it is the first dark green upward channel with the Points and tapes identified.
The larger the moves the easier it is to find of course. In the first channel I mentioned above you could go long on the point 3 breakout and ride until the FTT or BO later on. For example, you go long at the 9:25 AM bar close at 1403.25 and you would be kept in I believe until the 9:50 AM bar near 1406.50.
This helps me on large swings to find the Point 3 entry and catch a potentially long move if I am not already in on the move from Point 1 to 2.
Anyway, today's channels in hindsight made it a little easier to visualize 1,2 and 3s.
great work and greatpost.
YOU are on your way!!!!
Good going coach.
As a personal note, and something that might affect trading this system in the future. By using bars instead of candles I think it is easier to follow precisely how the bar forms during the 5 min period.
I am not sure it is so easy to do with candles.
Just a thought.
While I do plan to go more in depth on this subject after we have discussed all the fine resolution tools, let's do a 'quick and dirty' estimation of costs.
ES tic = $12.50
ES point = $50.00
Tree Level ~ 8 - 12 RT (16-24 'in and out') Trades per day. I purposefully inflated the number of trades a 'Tree Level Resolution' Trader would make here.
At $5.00 USD Round Trip (per contract), we have $60.00 dollars (12 RT trades x $5.00 USD per RT) per contract per day in commissions. One contract traded in and out 12 times (twelve round trip trades) racks up 60 bucks in commissions at our $5.00 per RT level. A gross profit of 1.75 points per day on one contract more than covers these costs. As to slippage and Bid / Ask Spread, These 'so called' costs are covered by the gross profit. In other words, If price moved 2 points from your entry and one exits on the bid, the net profit is 1.75 points. The spread is almost always one tic (I say almost because in rare occasions the spread does widen to 2 tics). To cover this 'spread cost' a trader still only needs to profit 1.75 points per day in order to cover commissions and the one tic spread - and still have a net profit. As to slippage, well, we don't place 'target' entry and exit points. The trade provides a profit or it doesn't. If a trader thought they were exiting from there long position at 1400, and instead, found themselves filled at 1399.00, then the 'slippage' would either subtract from the profit or add to the loss on the individual trade. Since a trader only needs to end up the day with a gross profit of 1.75 points to walk away with a small net profit, 'slippage' doesn't effect 'costs' of trading. It may effect one's profitability, but not 'costs.'
As you can see, if one does the math (even when adding in higher than average transaction costs, and higher than average trades per day), a trader needs to end up the entire day barely profitable in order to cover the daily costs.
$60.00 = Commissions and Fees
$12.50 = Bid / Ask Spread
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$72.50 = Total cost per contract per day
$75.00 = Total profit on 1.5 ES points / per contract
Remember, the minimum points per day one needs to profit in order to cover all costs and commissions is 1.5 ES points per contract. Anything above 1.5 points per day (per contract) you keep (with a promise to pay Uncle Sam's IRS a few bucks along the way).
I hope the above provides some clarity.
- Spydertrader
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