Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[ivob]

Quote from Pr0crast:

I like the idea of debriefing some real trades this month that either turned out well or not. I know some of us (myself included) are playing around with execution (sim trading, real trading, etc), and as many have mentioned, it is a bit different when you're really in there pressing buttons. You really see what still needs work and what is gelling.

In my case, I am having a tough time "staying cool" during HVS/flaw type things. I SUSPECT that's because these past few days there has been so much volatility that an HVS is 2-4 points tall.

Here is an example of a trade I made today where my "lost my cool" and exited for a wash, when had I somehow stayed in it I would have netted 8-9 pts. I entered on the same bar as the FTT, then exited on the third bar after that, where the HVS lashed back at me. Is it reasonable to exit like this? Should I have placed some sort of limit sell order just outside the very bottom of the HVS to catch the potential down move after I closed my initial position? If I am supposed to be holding here, what is my thought process as the 2.5 pt bar slaps me in the face?

My entry is perfect here. I can't help but to think that if I was able to "see" that this was an HVS somehow, that I would have made the 8-9 pts that were on the table for this quick trade.

Comments or suggestions?

When the second bar of the HVS did not close higher than the first one you could have known it was an HVS. Even if you didn't notice the HVS you should have held it as there is no signal of change. (no FTT + no RTL broken)

If you draw a tape from the FTT down, that tape was not broken.

regards,
Ivo

 

[ivob]

Quote from PointOne:

I've mentioned this to Spyder already:

The elephant in the room is: how will you perform when real money is on the line.

If you are not sure you cannot perform the same (that is: follow the same rules) then you're not ready to use real money or trading too big because unconsciously you're not convinced the method works if you follow the rules.

If you lose 2 points - stop. If you have 2 points profit going into a FTT then reverse.

IMO that's tampering with the rules and from one thing comes the other. If you stop when you lose 2 points you will beat yourself up missing a great opportunity after that, then you will take an opportunity that's not really an opportunity, etc etc. My opinion is we have to follow the rules exactly. If you follow the rules, feel good about it. If you could have made more but you did follow the rules, feel good about it. If you could have made a profit getting out at some point but you had a small loss but you did follow the rules, feel good about it. If you made a profit but the rules told you to get out (you saw a clear FTT but held on to it), feel bad about it.

If we simtrade, real trade or the size we trade is not part of the rules. For me personally I honestly think trading one real ES contract at this moment is too much to remain objective so I prefer 50 SPY or simtrading. I need some successes first and increase size little by little and I don't care how small the successes are as long as it is consistent which means no losses on a daily basis.

regards,
Ivo

 

[PointOne]

Quote from ivob:

because unconsciously you're not convinced the method works if you follow the rules.

Excellent point. More work needed there for sure. I'll cancel the yacht order for this summer.

Re. Spyders debrief above:
I thoroughly recommend everyone read and re-read the mistake and recovery rules relating to the possible Pt3 pink channel until their eyes bleed. Pure gold.

 

[ivob]

Hi all,

I have a question about FTT's. A very important part of this method is identifying the FTT's.

Is there anything you can say about the FTT's. What kind of FTT's are reliable and which ones are more likely to be a flaw? There must be a difference between them.

For example I like the FTT where a bar stops like two ticks before LTL and then quickly snaps back. I like it because (for me) it is obvious and risk is (IMO) limited because when price does touch LTL you can get out immediately and this is not far from your point of entry. Also I like FTT's that have much higher volume than the bar before it. I don't like FTT's when there's another peak in the same channel and the FTT goes exactly as far. These often end up in laterals. I have problems identifying FTT's that are stretched out over several bars. I find FTT's where the bar is taller than the bars around it reliable. I dislike FTT's in a channel that was just formed one bar before it (these often are not FTT's). I like FTT's with a large shadow on one side. I do not like FTT's when price stays on the same level a for a long time (after all how good can the trade be if everyone can get in)

These are just my observations. I am very interested in reading your opinion about this so pls share.

regards,
Ivo

 

[Tums]

Quote from PointOne:

Today's Nikkei chart for those interested. AM was well behaved (like a smooth downhill race course), the PM was more technical with a lot of HVS (like moguls / bumps). Note pace change.

Forest view FTT kept you on the right side all day although holding through the HVS is tough (fan from Pt1 repeatedly) as TL is walked across.

(If this is useful I will continue to post NK and DAX charts as I cannot contribute as much to the ES discussion.)

can't wait to hit the double diamonds.
Thanks P1 ! Excellent Chart. Great analogy.

 

[Bearbelly]

Quote from Pr0crast:



Again, not to detract from the syllabus, but I think this month is a perfect opportunity for those of us who are comfy with the gaussian stuff to talk/debrief about actual trades more and find out where the "kinks" are so we can work them out together before piling on the next layer of complexity. [/B]

I agree. At some point you have to start trading for real and I dont care how much you practice when you switch to cash you will find a different world. This is why I was asking earlier about the safest trade to take. What is the point of going any farther with the syllabus if you cannot make any money with what we have covered so far? As Mak says. Success builds upon success.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Scalped a point on the FTT at the blue arrow and got out at the red arrow at the 20-period EMA. Next bar is sideways after that while I was posting so will just watch. Still newer than most here

 

[Optionpro007]

Quote from optioncoach:

Scalped a point on the FTT at the blue arrow and got out at the red arrow at the 20-period EMA. Next bar is sideways after that while I was posting so will just watch. Still newer than most here

My goodness, I am really new, but you.....

There is not trading out of RTH for straters.

 

[El OchoCinco]

I am not new to futures trading, just adding in some of these ideas to what I do and finding it blends well. I have to simplify things first to see it clear. I am posting it here to share and get feedback in case I am missing something. For example if it was a horrible entry and I just got luck than I would like to know

Quote from optionpro007:

My goodness, I am really new, but you.....

There is not trading out of RTH for straters.

 

[bundlemaker]

I don't know how to handle these type of bars. I'm expecting a decrease of red volume, but %-wise get more. So this should have been called an FTT. Yet, when I was watching it, I knew it wasn't.