Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Pr0crast]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Correct. Especially on 'spike' type Price Bars, one needs to begin mentally to 'see' a Gaussian shift happening within the bar - without manually changing fractals on your chart (or looking at another chart of a lower fractal).

- Spydertrader

Yes, very important, and pretty common sense too if you think about it.

Example: Look at a doji bar (opens and closes at the same price). Most charting software considers that a "black" bar. Just because the charting software considers it a black bar, that doesn't mean that YOU should.

You should develop a mental process that looks at the price bar and immediately deducts what % of the corresponding volume bar is ACTUALLY black or red.

Don't trust the software. Trust your brain.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from KK70:

So how then would you have played the earlier 10:00 AM move? Would you have gone long at 10:05 and short again at 10:26?

If you look at my chart annotations for the time period in question, you should see two different Point Three down channels during the time frame you mention. Price did break the RTL on the original Point Three down channel (Burt Red color) only to create a new Point Three channel (red) fanned out at a slightly decreased angle. In between the BO and the new Point Three down channel, I had a Point Three Up channel (Kelly Green) which formed an FTT at (what came to be) Point Three of The red down channel. I see the ES following the YM almost exactly during this time period. Please review my chart annotations and let me know if you still see things differently.

- Spydertrader

 

[Jander]

Quote from KK70:

Yes, and more importantly, I am wondering if it is right to go long between 10:00-10:06 based on the YM FTT.....

Dont look at it as right/wrong. This is not right/wrong type of stuff. Everyone who trades this method will probably accrue a different # of points at the end of the day.

You will hear alot of people saying 'eventually you will learn to profit from your mistakes'. 1 of 2 things happens on that bar

1] No mistake... you long on the ftt and exit on the FBO

2] It was a mistake... price continues on the expected path for a couple of bars and you realize hey, price is respecting this RTL.. you exit with a small profit

Mistake or not...same end result

 

[BA_Trader]

Quote from ivob:

Wouldn't it help to just see that spike type Price bar in a lower fractal?

I agree with Ivo here... the YM tells the story of the opening beautifully.

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from ivob:

Wouldn't it help to just see that spike type Price bar in a lower fractal? Just to see how it is build up? I mean, it could be going up on high volume and go down on low volume. When you see this exact bar divided into 5 bars (or even 2 would do) it's easier to see. After all it is an important bar.

Did you really just ask me if it is O.K. to do what I just finished instructing you not to do? Please review today's posts. You may have missed someone else commenting on the pitfalls of not following directions.

Of course, you are an adult and should feel free to do anything you like.



- Spydertrader

 

[ivob]

Quote from BA_Trader:

I agree with Ivo here... the YM tells the story of the opening beautifully.

You probably mean that you agree with Bearbelly because he brought it up BTW I also agree with him.

regards,
Ivo

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from BA_Trader:

I agree with Ivo here... the YM tells the story of the opening beautifully.

Looking at the YM is fine. Breaking down the ES into one minute bars on another chart is not. Keep in mind, we have another tool coming up in a few days, which just might add some clarity on spike bars.

- Spydertrader

 

[KK70]

I see it now! Thanks Spyder and Jander (and ivob too).

 

[Tums]

Quote from Spydertrader:

Looking at the YM is fine. Breaking down the ES into one minute bars on another chart is not...

thanks for the directive, message received laud and clear.

 

[spooz_trader1]

Hey Fellow PV'rs, attached is a drill to force you to think about Gaussians. If you are interested, give it a try...

The attached chart shows "theoretical" Gaussians. These Gaussians reflect price action in the form of channels and traverses within the channels.

Your job, if you decide to accept this drill, is to:

1) Draw the Forest-level channel(s).
2) Draw the traverse(s) within the Forest-level channel(s), if they exist. Simply use lines, no need to draw bars.

[Hint: it may be easier to do (2) first, followed by (1). This is what you do in real-time, right?]

3) Label any FTT's, FBO's, BO's, etc that you may encounter (or "anticipate")
4) Above the Gaussians, but within the Volume pane, draw any Forest-level Gaussians, if they exist.
5) If you use the "Forest Guidelines", mark any important "end effects" related to the guidelines.
6) If this "snippet" did not represent the entire day, what would you "anticipate" to happen next? For this question, assume the last "B" is a Gaussian peak.

On the channel(s) and traverse(s), try and be precise as possible. In other words, peaks and troughs are important. No more Hints...

I'll be happy to post the answer later. Sure, there may be more than one right answer. If no one attempts to post an answer, I'll get the message that it was a stupid drill and prolly won't post the answer.

spooz