Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from bi9foot:

Ivo, Hopefully this answers your question. I am referring to the 2 bars highlighted by light purple rectangle.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1373636</img>
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Hi yes, it is clear. Thank you.

So in general price need to touch RTL first before it can make an FTT (FTT happens always when traversing right to left). But volatilty expansion is an exception to this. After all price does touch LTL right before VE takes place.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

Hi yes, it is clear. Thank you.

So in general price need to touch RTL first before it can make an FTT (FTT happens always when traversing right to left). But volatility expansion is an exception to this. After all price does touch LTL right before VE takes place.
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Price did touch the right trend line - back at Point Three. Price then hit the left trend line, started to retrace, then resumed its downward movement. Here, Price failed to reach the left trend line. You appear to be operating under the mistaken belief that price needs to go all the way back to the right trend line before it can form an FTT. Please remove this incorrect 'rule' from your mindset.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from KK70:

Folks,

What is the correct action @ bar 15 (the bar ending @ 10:45) through bar 18? The forest level trend is down and bar 15 touches the LTL on high volume. Then bars 16 and 17 retrace to the RTL on lower up (black) volume. A resumption of the downtrend (or at least a potential FTT somewhere between the LTL and RTL after a brief down bar) was what I was anticipating at this point. However price continued going upwards after BO of the RTL and eventually stalled on bars 19-24.

Bar 15 cannot be defined as an FTT because price did traverse to the LTL. So at the forest level, when does one shift from short to long? Bar 18 (ie on the close > RTL)? The only advance warning clue I found was the high black volume on the 10:46 YM bar; is that single piece of information sufficient to indicate a change in trend?

TIA.
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You get out when price crosses RTL. However, that would be a little late on the ES (on my screen). YM gave the clue IMO because there was an FTT exactly at 10.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from KK70:

What is the correct action @ bar 15 (the bar ending @ 10:45) through bar 18? The forest level trend is down and bar 15 touches the LTL on high volume.
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Let's say you do not believe the price action to which you refer resulted in an FTT on the ES. Certainly you do see an FTT on the YM at the same time (See attached). Since the YM leads the ES, and you have a signal for change on the YM, we follow the market signal and expect price to head higher from this point. Decreasing black volume marks a retrace of a channel. When the Gaussian changes from decreasing black to increasing black (a \/-B2B), we have a reversal (breakout of the channel).

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1374365>

Quote from KK70:

Bar 15 cannot be defined as an FTT because price did traverse to the LTL.
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See my previous answer as it also applies to your question above:

Quote from Spydertrader:

Price did touch the right trend line - back at Point Three. Price then hit the left trend line, started to retrace, then resumed its downward movement. Here, Price failed to reach the left trend line. You appear to be operating under the mistaken belief that price needs to go all the way back to the right trend line before it can form an FTT. Please remove this incorrect 'rule' from your mindset.

- Spydertrader
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Quote from Spydertrader:

A great day to 'see' the market.

- Spydertrader
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Hi Spyder,

Still working on the opening and the first few bars.

Am I right when I say that the bias for the market before opening was up but that it was not confimed by increasing black volume?

After all the market opened higher so a up channel could be drawn providing a pt 3 would be formed (on increasing black volume). As volume was decreasing the first four bars I was expecting the fifth bar to form this point 3 on increasing black volume. It quickly became evident it didn't and instead formed a point 3 on a down channel. Am I concluding the right thing here?

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from Bearbelly:

Do you find the ftt signals in the afternoon to be as reliable as those in the morning? I have a much more difficult time reading them when the volatility drops so I pretty much avoid trading in the pm. Curious if others are doing ok with it.
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When volume and volatility occasionally drops off later in the day, some have found difficulty following the FTT's. If you experience similar difficulty, then I recommend taking a very hard look at Gaussians. Rather than focus bar to bar, try to anticipate a bigger picture (Forest level) Gaussian. Start to do this in the mornings as well (when higher volume and volatility exist). With practice, you'll begin to 'see' the bigger picture much clearer, and as a result, lower volume in the afternoon's won't fool you one bit.

- Spydertrader

No comment on you finally removing the indicators. :D :D
 
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