Quote from Steve Tvardek:
One thing I am having a tough time w/ is when we have, say a down channel drawn with our 3 pts. Then a bar or two prints fully outside the RTL, but then price goes back and continues to traverse in the original direction (down). We then recycle pt 1 to alter the channel. How can we tell in realtime if this is a true breakout of the RTL or just one of those times where we lessen the steepness of our channel? Is this a "zoom in" question? I understand how to annotate the situation but cant seem to figure out in advance to annotate faster.
As an example, lets use Spyder's ES chart from today and the final two down channels of the day (first we get red channel and then we get orange channel using same pt 1). Does anyone know the answer 
I also hesitated when seeing this realtime. What caused me to stay on the short side where the following things:
- first black bar at 15:35 (actually grey on my screen because open=close). Nothing wrong here. It did not take out the previous bar on the upside and volume is lower than the previous bar.
- second black bar at 15:40. Bar did not close above 15:30 bar. In fact, after reaching its high sellers came in and pushed it even below the middle of the bar. The volume was higher which caused me to immediately draw a trendline starting at the last FTT which was the 15:05 one on my screen. The volume told me :"This bar has marked an important point, you have to draw something".
- I actually saw these three bars as an HVS because they have the same low. I don't know much about HVS but I do know it's a pause and it means hold cause price will continue. Price was just pausing for a little while.
- On bars like this I often zoom to 3 minute view. I am not trying to introduce something we shouldn't do but I just cannot help it. I wanted to see better how this bar was formed by seeing it broken apart. Seeing these few bars in this fractal it becomes even more obvious that at 15:38 sellers came in after price went up a little and also the HVS was more obvious (5 bars exactly lined up).
- YM shows also sellers coming in and increasing volume at 15:38. The volume was very obvious (more obvious than on ES). You had to wait till the end of the bar though.
Then something more subjective:
- After an FTT price seems to retrace just to a point where you tell yourself now it MUST go down or I do not believe in this move anymore. That's what it did. I guess this is the "second chance" to get on board that the market tends to give. For us beginners it's the first chance BTW. (point 3 = point to enter if it was you pt 3).
- I was very sure of the FTT at 15:05. And after a screaming FTT I found you just need to relax and give the new channel time to be formed. After all we front run the breakout traders and other people who trade after the fact. The FTT comes early in the move, the earliest possible as far as I know. It comes so early that often I find it hard to believe that price could turn very much (causing me to bail out with just a few ticks profit; not this time) but I have seen it does, over and over again.
So there is not one thing but just a combination of things that said "HOLD".
regards,
Ivo
