Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
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Quote from Cocaine:
I see that you projected the YM higher based on your up channel but that R2R Gaussian is confusing to me and you saying the the color mechanism can sometimes be lopsided makes me nervous that it cannot be trusted. The YM could just have easily busted through the RTL and then it would seem the Gaussian predicted it? If you dont mind answering, what did you think when you saw the Gaussian and what convinced you that the action is was still "hold" or contination? Thanks Mak
So we see that there are 2 problems for you here. If you are nervous, you do not know what is going on. Reversing is more advanced then exiting. R\/R and B\/B are "CHANGE" signals. R/\B and B/\R are "CONTINUATION" signals. I stated in my post that I annotate traverses and retraces of channels. Each retrace and each traverse are their own channels. The detail you picked off was without context and I was attempting to try and clarify within my own context of how I saw things. What you aren't seeing as of yet was how much of the bar was BLACK before it went RED. Some pages back, I started annotating the dominants with how the color changed within the bar. There were several bars were a large DOMINANT went RED -> BLACK -> RED again all within the same 5M bar. This is what I mean by lopsided-ness. If you do not see these details, you miss a very subtle detail which is usually not important in the forest view. BUT IN ANY EVENT, let's look from your side of the picture. SAY, YOU DID REVERSE! Things are humming along and everything should be good for you. Why is there nothing to be nervous about??? BECAUSE, if things FAIL to XO your RTL, then the BO has FAILED and you either FBO/EXIT (skill level 2) or FBO/REVERSE (skill level 3) and CONTINUE on the right side. My end all for everything is the forest view and the RIGHT SIDE. At any resolution there is a right side. You are getting hung up in R\/R that you are asking why didn't it do what I THINK it should have done. I run into situations like this all the time. HOWEVER, I do not get nervous because there is always a fail safe, THE RTL! We encourage everyone to stick to the forest view. Forest view says, pt3 => GO, XO RTL => NO GO! At some point, you build up enough skill such that the details of the legs of the forest mirrors the details of the forest... THEN you are ready to step down in resolution or step up in profit taking... Check out my annotation at that point, it was a drifting non dominant short RETRACE. I did note the gaussian as you pointed out. Did you see the following B\/B. If you didn't, what about the fail safe FBO of the the RTL! I was penciled in for the pt3 on the forest view so I was biased against a short channel. The cards don't always fall my way...
MAK
Hi Mak
I see what you mean about the failsafe RTL of the non-dom red retrace (in which the R2R occurred). Unfortunately, I dont see how we have the thick green up channel fully annotated at this time as it hasnt formed. Am I incorrect here? I only see pt 3 of the channel formed after the 9:58 surging bar (maybe you had yours on the 9:56 bar as you are way more in tune than me). Once that happens, it becomes clear to me that dominant traverse is back in tact. Unfortunately, the market would have zoomed away from me by the time this is realized (I didnt place this trade or any other trades, merely projecting what would have happened had I BEEN trading).
Also, I am trying hard not to zoom in but remain at forest level so I do not notice how much of the volume was black before turning red. This seems like a vital detail. I assume we should not concern ourselves with this as of yet?
I see what you mean about the failsafe RTL of the non-dom red retrace (in which the R2R occurred). Unfortunately, I dont see how we have the thick green up channel fully annotated at this time as it hasnt formed. Am I incorrect here? I only see pt 3 of the channel formed after the 9:58 surging bar (maybe you had yours on the 9:56 bar as you are way more in tune than me). Once that happens, it becomes clear to me that dominant traverse is back in tact. Unfortunately, the market would have zoomed away from me by the time this is realized (I didnt place this trade or any other trades, merely projecting what would have happened had I BEEN trading).
Also, I am trying hard not to zoom in but remain at forest level so I do not notice how much of the volume was black before turning red. This seems like a vital detail. I assume we should not concern ourselves with this as of yet?
Understood. I draw my thick ones in long before I get my pt3. You've seen several examples today but that is just me so it is cheating for now... The zoom away was program trading. That is a down the line type of thing. However, you should be on the 5M ES. If you are glued to the YM this will problematic also. This is another cheating aspect for me as I usually regard both simultaneiously. For, example the current lateral is and was evident on the 5M but not the YM. On the YM, there are a few flaws. On the ES, it is pristine... On the YM, we are getting short drift... Also STICK to the forest level. You mentioned reversing which is not forest level and thus my comments to find out why you were seeing what you saw. Do not zoom. There are no vital details that you are missing at the forest level. We are simply noting things that are sub forest. If you are looking for rt support, go into the chatroom and follow along...
My esignal just crashed and I lost my entire days worth of annotations on both YM and ES. All that hard work, poof, gone!
I guess I can redo the day but this is frustrating.
I guess I can redo the day but this is frustrating.
Misery loves company
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