Replace the above acronym FTT with any noun of your choosing. Then, repeat the question out loud. Can you see (hear) yourself sounding silly?
"Are elephants always elephants?"
"Are trees always trees?"
"Are pencils always pencils?"
Of course, the answer to the above questions (as well as the original) is a resounding Yes.
With respect to your assertion regarding preconceived ideas, I suspect you already know the answer, but have not yet fully made the necessary paradigm shift.
Please do not take my remarks as an attempt to 'single you out' from the crowd. I believe many following along often feel similarly to your current state of mind, and I merely have chosen your comments as a springboard to provide some clarity.
"Forget what you THINK you know."
I often often written and spoken the above instructions to many as they begin the Journey toward understanding the Hershey Methodology. I provide the advice out of the knowledge that holding onto one's preconceived notions hinders one's success. I provided a clear example of such during my introduction of the YM as a leading indicator of ES Price movement.
The reason preconceived ideas and experience thwart a trader's progress along the Hershey learning curve is easily understood. So much of the methodology falls into the category of 'counter-intuitiveness' that failing to set aside firmly held beliefs and truths, blocks the assimilation of knew ideas.
A fundamental paradigm shift is required in order for the learning trader to understand what the methodology is all about. The system does not provide entry and exit signals. Rather, the methodology allows the trader to differentiate between continuation and change. In other words, this isn't a traffic light with green for go and red for stop. It's driving on an expressway through Texas at night with nothing on the road for miles and miles (continuation) when suddenly a coyote runs onto the road (change). You don't stop your car and wait for the coyote to pass. You switch lanes or risk running into the animal and smashing your car.
Now, no instrument on your dash board told you when to expect the coyote, but when you saw it appear on the asphalt, you knew exactly what to do - alter your direction. Toss into the analogy one of those road signs which say "Coyote Crossing Next 4 Miles" (context) and suddenly, you begin to anticipate the arrival of the animal. By anticipating a coyote (FTT) crossing the road on this specific stretch of roadway (peak volume at a Gaussian) you have the ability to react quicker. Add some of those extremely luminescent head lights (The YM) and you can see the coyote (FTT) even sooner.
Can you see how understanding the differences between continuation and change within a certain context requires a hair's width shift in mental viewpoint? Just as you don't need to know when exactly a coyote plans to run onto the road (you only need to know what to do when you see it), so too, do you not need to know where or for how long price plans to trend in its current direction. We only need to recognize when a change occurs.
The FTT provides the signal for sentiment change. It does so in any market - on any time frame (provided sufficient liquidity exists). By focusing on the differences between continuation and change each of the tools we use provides the exact input (at the exact time) needed for correct decision making and (more importantly) timely action. Jack calls this input 'complete data sets.'
Right now (because we aren't using all the tools), we often have incomplete data sets. Making decisions based on incomplete data sets, often results in errors. In this fashion, I have intentionally handicapped everyone in an effort to teach the lesson of how making mistakes can often result in profitable trades.
Focus on the current tasks at hand, and in time, the picture will come together for everyone. If by my analogy above, I have added confusion, rather than, provide clarity, please let me know, and I will attempt to provide another example.
Good Journey to you all.
- Spydertrader
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