Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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ProCrast..thx for your reply, and thx for the e-book you put together.

Our charts for today, are very similar. AND to spydertraders.!!
I know I'm getting a lot of this, and that to quite a large degree it's subjective..
ie ...even though some of my FTT ,s etc where at slightly different times to spydertraders (and others) many of the trades would still have yielded a small profit or a wash at worst.

It's also therefor a question of how one responds to what the market is doing (telling) us in this present moment.

But I do want to be as sure as is possible that my differences are not down to some technical aspect of this methodology that I haven't mastered yet..

FT
 
Quote from spooz_trader1:

Maybe others can chime in as well. I for one would be interested in hearing them... :)

spooz
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How about this as a way to see where the bigger channel might form:

1. Fast paced tape.
2. FTT of tape, BO (the retrace).
3. You are now looking for a new point 3, NP3 (the resume).
4. Put in a provisional Left TL connecting the last full traverse with the FTT (ie a shallower trend line.)
5. Clone the line from Pt 1 of the original tape.
6. Watch closely to see if NP3 forms on this cloned, provisional RTL. If it doesn't, well that tells you something too. :)

I'd be interested to hear if this is "approved" as channels are created from the right side only.
(Apologies if we're not using NP3 terminology here.)
 
following continual re-reading...

Dismiss, don't even concider my reference to "subjectivity" ,
MAKS post from another thread explains things... (who was I kidding..? only myself !!) :)

"Personal, I do not like to SUBJECTIVELY INTERPRET pictures especially wrt trading. My trading does not incorporate interpretations because there is only one question. How much is this picture worth? Looks like an FTP or IT IS an FTP??? IT IS an FTP, that picture is worth alot! Ok, I am in FTP modus. Looks like an FTP, what should I do... Well, I know what to do when IT IS an FTP so should I treat what looks like an FTP as if it were an FTP??? Personally, I do not like to include these type of interpretive pictures. As a result of not knowing the picture I sideline and then debrief why I didn't recognize the picture! For me, knowing what the picture is allows me to take the necessary actions. As a result, there are no surprises.

In kindergarten, we learned our alphabet using pictures. We were presented a picture of a particular letter and our brains made a connection between the picture and the letter. There is no confusion in whether the letter "A" looked like a letter "B". After all the letters were connected to pictures, we began creating pictures of clusters of letters (ie. pictures of words).... clusters of words for speed readers (ie sentences)... clusters of key words...etc...

The kinda pictures lead to shoulda woulda coulda actions. Personally, I have gone to great lengths to produce tools that are crisp. It is FAST pace not a kinda looks like a FAST pace. It is STRetching! There are no maybe's about it when I data gather. Maybe lead to Monday morning quarterbacking. If the picture of now is unknown, my action for that scenario is very simply SIDELINE. In other words, I know what I am supposed to do when I see X, therefore if I don't know X, surely I cannot know what to do... Who am I kidding...

Some traders like to use interpretive stuff and I am sure they have their reasons... As long as I can remember, I cannot remember ever being uncertain whether the letter "A" was actually the letter "B". Monet was arguably gifted. What is certain about traders is that there are losers and winners. That picture is clear. Trades occur at a price and time. That is clear. Collections of trades have a direction. A pair of collections from correlated instruments will have a single leading collection... These pictures are very clear for me..."

MAK!


FilterTip

"every day I wake up and realize I know nothing and then I smile "
 
procrast

I do not agree with your 1300 comment on your Feb 2 chart about b^b being a LTL breaker. I think a b^R would be more of a LTL signal that the top may be reached and a new STL MAY be starting.

A b^b in my interpretation during a LTL only signifies that the volume surge completed and a new volume surge is taking place pushing prices higher.
 
8833:
As I read your post I think there is some confusion with nomenclature.

1) I think you are confusing "/\" with "\/" as used by Procrast.

/\ = rising, then falling

\/ = falling, then rising

if you look at his chart in this context does it make sense?


2) when you say "LTL" I think you mean "long trend channel", rather than "Left Trend Line" as it is used by Mak and others.

3) So in a long trend channel b/\b would mean a shift has occurred from increasing black volume to decreasing black volume. Per the Jokari window this means expect change which is what Procrast was saying around 13:00 on his chart.

4) IMO this chart has also shown an excellent example of another issue. Look at the 13:15, 13:20 and 13:25 ES bars and note that each closed successively lower yet is colored black.

Shouldn't black price bars = rising price within our nomenclature?

This is due to QCharts coding bar colors from open to close, rather than close to close.
 
I've been quietly following the thread off and on this week, while preparing for a 1 month trip away from the US and the Internet. Haven't had time to post, but I did continue to draw channels, gaussians, and to annotate for 3 of the days.

I'll be playing catch up big time when I return. But thanks to PrOcrast and his wonderful pdf of month one, I should come back with a better understanding of ES Chart: Price, Volume, Channels, and the FTT!

Thanks to everyone for maintaining such a constructive atmosphere here. And thanks to the experts for their dedication and generosity. See you in March!
 
ES chart 2 Feb 07 attached

Spyder:
A question regarding channels that do not start with an FTT.

We occasionally get a situation where point 1 of a new channel will be on the left trend line of the old channel. This is often the case after a period of volatility expansion (see point X on attached chart). In this situation, am I correct in thinking that all we have in the toolset at present to identify the appearance of the new channel would be the B2B guassian switch?
 

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Quote from dkm:

A question regarding channels that do not start with an FTT: Am I correct in thinking that all we have in the toolset at present to identify the appearance of the new channel would be the B2B guassian switch?
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Because we currently find ourselves focusing exclusively on recognizing and acting upon the formation of an FTT, I have intentionally avoided mentioning 'other' times when the market signals change instead of continuation. I have purposefully omitted additional 'change' signals at this time in an effort to keep people focused on the Coarse Level resolution. After all, at Coarse Level (Forest), an HVS, Hitch, Dip, Stall and even CCC, signal continuation (or hold if entered, wait if sidelined). Under medium and fine resolution (Trees, Limbs and Leaves (even Bacteria on Leaves, on Limbs, on Trees, in the Forest), the HVS, Hitch, Dip and Stall formations signal a change (reverse) - albeit for a very short period of time.

Understand, if traders never progress beyond the Coarse Level resolution, they can make a very fine living - simply by "trading between the FTT's." As such, I want to make absolutely sure everyone can use the tools to perform two very specific tasks:

1. Quickly locate an FTT
2. Quickly spot their errors when they think they saw an FTT but really didn't

Later in the Journal (when we arrive at 'putting it all together'), we will focus on the differences between continuation and change at all levels of resolution. At that time, we will use tools we do not yet have available to pinpoint the left trend line turns (and all signals of 'change'), as well as, the FTT's.

For now (and to answer your question), we do not have the tools - nor the experience required - to monitor left trend line 'change' vs 'continuation' signals. As such, remain focused on the FTT's at the Coarse level resolution.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from dkm:

ES chart 2 Feb 07 attached

Spyder:
A question regarding channels that do not start with an FTT.

We occasionally get a situation where point 1 of a new channel will be on the left trend line of the old channel. This is often the case after a period of volatility expansion (see point X on attached chart). In this situation, am I correct in thinking that all we have in the toolset at present to identify the appearance of the new channel would be the B2B guassian switch?
More...

dkm,

My thoughts on the "X" point noted on your chart came to light at the end of the day during my debrief. We had a stall about 11:00 with a number of lower volume black bars followed by the red expansion bar. A lower volume hitch (?) and two more increasing volume red bars. This had all of the makings of an accelerating down trend. The door was slammed on that down trend with the black bar at 11:45 (bar 27) that had more volume than the proceeding red bars and almost made it into the Extraordinary volume level (16,000 on my notes). Just my thoughts FWIW.

Filtertip,

Something that I have done is keep a separate 5min ES chart on which I don't put any annotation. This makes it easier for me to "see" the bigger picture. Similar to pushing your chair away from the screen. This other chart is also where I have "Mikeytraders" stacked volume. The only problem is that in TS, unless one saves a picture of the stacked volume chart at the end of the day, all of that info is lost.

JDAndy
 
R/R

When I look at the chart in the Volume context that you explained I understand prOcrast chart better. There is definitely a FTT and from your explanation I see how it relates to the Jokari diagram.

I guess am a little biased here and would rather see higher absolute volume with a long tail ( long tail = Bar close in bottom
third of Bar price range) to be convinced of the FTT. Around lunch time, due to the lack of volume, a small meanlingless price hiccup is quite likely. That's how I viewed the 1300 bar. But again there was definitely a FTT.

The above comments is based on my bias and may not be relevent here.

Are FTT's alway FTT's ? Spyder would probably say yes. Possibly I have some preconceived ideas that are not true.

I was using LTL = Long Trend (upward sloping ). STL = Short Trend ( downward sloping )
RTL= Right Trend Line, LTL = Left Trend Line
 
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