Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
- Start date
- Status
Bear,
You don't necessarily have to be trading. Just write down on a paper in real time your actions (ie your turns) as you identified your FTTs. At the end of the day you should see the number of points you would have taken.
Over several days, you will see how you are performing. That is the success part.
I consider this completely different from using a simulated trading. In a simulated trading account, you start seeing your P/L and that influences your decision making.
Our goal here is to use the given tools and strive to always be on the right side of the market (without regard to profit and loss). The P/L will take care of itself because you will always be on the right side of the market.
I'm glad you brought this up, the blue box illustration. Is it possible that the Chicago PMI # that was released at 9:45 caused this price action? I think a 9:45 economic release is also pretty atypical.
Quote from makosgu:
What a way to end the month... FOMC...Here's my chart. The blue box was atypical. Things don't ALWAYS go our way. Just the majority of the time... LOL!!!
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1345947>
Regards,
MAK
After reviewing the journal so far, I have a question regarding the basic rule âFTT to FTT reverseâ. I have previously assumed that the only way to get from one FTT to the next would be via a newly formed channel, with new points 1, 2, and 3, its associated traverses, and then the FTT that signals the end of the current channel and the beginning of the next..
However, I notice on the attached chart (posted 12-31-06) that after the orange FTT you annotate an FTT for an earlier green channel, thus giving us a direct step from one FTT to the next, whereupon you annotate a signal to reverse.
Am I correct in thinking that the rule âFTT to FTTâ refers to this situation of a direct step, rather than an FTT that signifies the ending of the most recently formed channel?
However, I notice on the attached chart (posted 12-31-06) that after the orange FTT you annotate an FTT for an earlier green channel, thus giving us a direct step from one FTT to the next, whereupon you annotate a signal to reverse.
Am I correct in thinking that the rule âFTT to FTTâ refers to this situation of a direct step, rather than an FTT that signifies the ending of the most recently formed channel?
Although Volume on my own charts appears a little different than the attached example shown by Mak, I do not view the price action as all that atypical. Understanding that we all see things differently, decreasing red volume combined with decreasing price tells me to expect the trend to change (See Jokari Window). While we do not yet know for sure how or when our larger (grey) channel plans to materialize (in fact, we do not even know it exists in the normal sense), we can expect a coming change in trend by understanding how price first must retrace (decreasing red in this example) before it can reverse. Since we do not see the anticipated increasing red volume (in fact volume turns black), we can know for sure we simply experienced a retrace (non-dominant volume) of an uptrend. Interestingly, we do not even need to know the parameters of the uptrend to know the clue provided by decreasing red volume. We simply need to have our eyes focused on the correct 'resolution' level. For beginning traders that resolution is coarse.
I hope the above explanation provided some clarity for you without mucking up the water further.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1346347>
As always, very clearly explained. Thanks!
Welcome Back from your trip.
It would depend on one's orientation with respect to 'resolution' level (See earlier post with three levels annotated). However, one can drop down to finer resolutions in an effort to catch all the FTT's which appear directly or indirectly from channel to channel. I have recommended beginner traders stay at the most 'coarse' of resolution levels until they gain experience. Perhaps, it is this resolution phase shift which has caused you difficulty in the past?
- Spydertrader
Well, we all know that Jack is Jack. He has a number of particulars. Sometimes, a misunderstanding occurs due to the nature of forums and boards which can often cascade in to various tagential discussions. From time to time, I take a look to see what Jack is up to but then again, I do that with many posters. After much effort, what I have realized is that often he and I may be on completely different routes with regards to our "process" of going from A to B. Interestingly enough, time after time, I find myself discovering many of the same breakthroughs which Jack often describes very differently. In a way, this type of process has enabled me to slice and dice things from a very broad spectrum of interpretations. It is part of my engineering background which drives me to make an effort to know completely what it is that I am learning.
The point is that regardless of what others think, only you will know whether or not you are being successful. Spyder and I have had a number of discussions. We think we have a pretty good idea of where the successes are and our experience has been that without a "bread and butter" plateau to build from, the road becomes riddled with difficulties. Such an orientation provides a different spin on posters who ask why we aren't on Forbes or have surpassed Buffet. Right off the bat, it is a telltalke sign that they are playing in a little league ballpark simply because they do not understand what it means to pull out capital regularly from a reservoir that is never empty. It makes the where is your $20M and house in the hills questions silly. So, BE SUCCESFUL! BE! Several of the tools to come do not have an ER2 or NQ equivalent. If one can't be successful with PV/Channels, then the road ahead will likely be frustrating. One day when the SPM thread has run it's course, I will join their thread, speak their talk with Sharpes/RR/Drawdowns, add volume, post the backtest and have t28 run with it. In the meantime, experience using PV/Channels and sort out whether you know where, when, and how they work.
Regards,
MAK
- Status