Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from hypostomus:

The attached chart shows how illusory raw volume can be when compared to volume normalized by total price movement within the bar (the green histogram). This is one of many reasons why I argue that volume is irrelevant, that price leads volume, and that the alleged PV relation is fraudulent. My apologies to Magna for the intrusion. You may keep the indicator with my compliments. Since it is volume-derived, it's worthless, too. FWIW, the simple trend following rules in the helper pane show that Friday you could have saved yourself a lot of SCT work by just going long all day.
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I guess I just have to give all the money back then :(

Since it was just my imagination. :p :D :cool:
 
If you're tired of looking at the ES, here's a nice DAX move from Thursday following a FTT which shows the PV relationship. I was monitoring at the time and yes, I did push the button in that cyan circle:

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1326658>

Note: at time of entry there was no indication of the size of the subsequent move. That would be prediction and we don't do that.
 

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Quote from hypostomus:

The attached chart shows how illusory raw volume can be when compared to volume normalized by total price movement within the bar (the green histogram). This is one of many reasons why I argue that volume is irrelevant, that price leads volume, and that the alleged PV relation is fraudulent. My apologies to Magna for the intrusion. You may keep the indicator with my compliments. Since it is volume-derived, it's worthless, too. FWIW, the simple trend following rules in the helper pane show that Friday you could have saved yourself a lot of SCT work by just going long all day.
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hippo,

Can you humor me and explain what exactly this proves? All I think when I look at your chart is... "poorly annotated." You can argue that "volume is irrelevant" all you want, but money does the talking around here, my friend! :cool:

"Fraudulent" and "worthless" are pretty hostile words to be using here. Like I've said to you before, if you are interested in fostering worthwhile discussion, you might want to phrase things in a more positive light, else people are going to dismiss you as an egotistical troll. Just some friendly advice. From everyone else's perspective, you aren't here to learn (as you clearly haven't read this journal in its entirety), nor are you here to argue-- you seem just want to state your "point" in hopes that you'll get a reaction out of somebody out there in cyberspace. Unfortunately for you, half of the readers and contributors on this journal have already put you on "ignore." What a useful feature :)

Good trading to you.

-Pr0crast
 
It is not "poorly annotated", it is meant to be a thought-provoking exercise for the student. It proves nothing, but is merely suggestive that your precious volume is due to price variation, not the other way 'round. The proofs I save for my own personal pleasure. You will not see much hint of them in 5 minutes. Thank you for the statistic on how much I am ignored. Hugely informative.
 
Hi Spyder and all,

Been a lurker for a while and have one question.Do you feel The methods you employ work on EOD data,specifically daily and weekly bars??

Any insight appreciated

Tao
 
Quote from hypostomus:

The attached chart shows how illusory raw volume can be when compared to volume normalized by total price movement within the bar (the green histogram). This is one of many reasons why I argue that volume is irrelevant, that price leads volume, and that the alleged PV relation is fraudulent. My apologies to Magna for the intrusion. You may keep the indicator with my compliments. Since it is volume-derived, it's worthless, too. FWIW, the simple trend following rules in the helper pane show that Friday you could have saved yourself a lot of SCT work by just going long all day
More...

Hi Hypo,

I have no axe to grind one way or the other regarding price and volume,but I would be curious to how you view the following...

If a large institution calls up Goldman and asks for a bid on 3,000,000 shares of Google,I think we both would agree that the bid will be substantially below the last sale...

Is price leading volume,or is volume leading price???
 
Quote from taowave:

Been a lurker for a while and have one question.Do you feel The methods you employ work on EOD data,specifically daily and weekly bars??
More...

Any market, Any time frame - provided sufficient liquidity exists.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Any market, Any time frame - provided sufficient liquidity exists.

- Spydertrader
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Before i go thru each journal,have you made any specific refernces to EOD trading on daily and weekly bars???

The only refernces I have from Jack is the reduced profitabilty of EOD relative to intraday...
 
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