Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[illiquid]

Ok thanks for the answer.

 

[dkm]

Here are my notes for today, produced from monitoring just the 5 min ES chart. Hopefully this might show up some flaws in my thinking (no pun intended)

09:44 dominant long, magenta tape
09:51 turn?
09:53 low prv, range contraction
09:56 vol accel, new high
10:00 FTT?
10:03 red bar, still looks like FTT
10:09 high +prv HVS?, no R2R
10:11 draw RTL for black channel, new pt 3
10:17 low prv, FTT?
10:21 1st break of low
10:36 lateral, adjust RTL again
10:39 forming pt 3? no R2R again
10:40 yes, new pt 3 (draw in green channel)
10:47 +prv but not as high as last Gaussian
10:56 FTT? –prv , approaching RTL, looking for BO
10:58 fbo?
11:01 yes, +prv, no R2R again
11:05 long trend continues
11:11 lower prv, FTT?
11:14 FTT still poss, new high as bar closes
11:16 hi prv, long continuation, no R2R again
11:21 FTT? Red prv, anticipating RTL BO
11:24 looking good for BO out of green channel
11:26 low prv – looking for r2r to confirm FTT
11:34 short traverse pauses at 1433, inc prv black
11:37 lateral
11:39 long thrust but not hi prv, forming yet another new pt3 for shallower wider channel?
11:41 lower prv, looks lateral, no sign of r2r
11:47 lower prv, lateral forming L2R traverse? If so, should have new pt 3 soon and r2r
11:52 vol approaching du
11:54 ftp
11:56 ftp bo long, increasing prv. Does this negate FTT?
12:03 looks like fbo. No sign of r2r. Going into lunchtime
12:16 unexpected strong upthrust, high prv, channel context?? Wider lateral? Olive channel
12:24 FBO
13:11 BO of Olive channel r2r…..real or fake?
13:22 looks real r2r increasing prv
13:24 dominant short – looking for pt 2
13:32 pt 2 formed? Start of LTR traverse, R2B Gaussian
13:41 looking for pt 3 and new R2B
13:52 pt 3 formed – draw violet short channel
13:58 RTL traverse, on the lookout for next FTT
14:06 at LTL, hi prv – if we don’t get a BO then this is where I should exit the short
14:08 decreasing prv – end of traverse? Still at LTL
14:11 prv increasing, possible BO, volatility expansion of channel, HOLD
14:16 looking like FBO so this would be exit – start of L2R traverse
14:21 increasing prv short – disrupting traverse – flaw
14:24 prv of this bar has fallen – LTR traverse resuming
14:26 increasing prv long, pushing to RTL – poss B2B?
14:32 arrive at RTL – increasing prv long, BO here?
14:34 – price arrives at 1433 again – previous S and R, (Olive channel), could be pt 2 of new long channel? If vol decreases on retrace then maybe so (anticipating B2R). If red vol increases then we have another RTL short traverse
14:37 prv very low, bar contraction
14:46 lateral bo of channel, vol du
14:49 long traverse continues, BO confirmed, looking for pt 2 on new long channel
14:56 bar colour change, pt 2? Peaking prv, looking for decreasing red vol. Vol at close of bar is less than prev bar – pt 2 in? Looking for a pt 3 around 1431
15:03 lateral so far,
15:12 increasing prv long – low of this bar pt 3 of narrow long channel? Or just fbo of lateral?
15:17 no follow through, prv very low. Still anticipating price to fall for new pt 3
15:21 heavy short prv, R2R – new short channel? 15:10 bar was probably an FTT. My anticipated pt 3 goes out the window
15:26 Looking for pt2 of new short channel
15:29 strong bounce, pt 2 in? looking for decreasing vol on LTR traverse.
15:48 pt 3? Draw red channel. Looking for RTL short traverse.

 

[bundlemaker]

PRV seems to be fooling me. At critical points, what was a green (red) bar shifts to red (green) and what you thought was confirming something did the opposite. When you have this happen several times intra-bar on the same bar I’m at a loss as to proper course of action. Also, does a high volume inside bar mean anything?

When PRV is moderately increasing, say you’re half way through the bar, and price is only a tick or so away from the previous bar’s close, is there anything you can do with PRV? Or does one wait until the close of the bar in that instance? Or is this perhaps where the medium and fine course tools might come into play?

For example here is what happens to me: 30 seconds into the bar it looks like a FTT, at 2 ½ minutes it looks like a flaw, the next bar it looks like an FTT, next bar’s volume suggests it really wasn’t an FTT, the following bar’s initial PRV negates that idea, etc.

I am definitely beginning to see the Gaussians within 4 or 5 bars after they form and sometimes even while it’s forming (which is pretty neat) and use it in the decision process.

 

[C99]

Nice effort DKM. My goal for next week is to get a similiar real time log going.

One Q on your chart, bar 57 which is the same one I asked Mak about you have labeled as a FBO. I think BO and FBO can only occur on the RTL. So is your bar mislabelled or am I wrong in my understanding of that?

 

[thenewguy]

Here is mine for today....

Thanks,

TNG

 

[Spydertrader]

Note Highlighted Areas on Chart

- Spydertrader

 

[dkm]

Quote from C99:

Nice effort DKM. My goal for next week is to get a similiar real time log going.

One Q on your chart, bar 57 which is the same one I asked Mak about you have labeled as a FBO. I think BO and FBO can only occur on the RTL. So is your bar mislabelled or am I wrong in my understanding of that?

This is a point that occurred to me only recently so I sought clarification, and the answer is:

Quote from Spydertrader:

Yes. A Bounce is an FBO, and Beginners Exit off an FBO.

- Spydertrader

So my understanding now is that if price reaches the left trend line and does not break through it i.e. it begins a left to right retracement, then it should been considered as an FBO and an exit is in order. After thinking about this, it is quite logical. A break through the left trend line will mean (a) the channel is getting wider and (b) price is moving in the desired direction, giving the rule HOLD when seeing a BO. If it fails to BO i.e. bounces, then exit. On bar 57 we did get a BO and the channel widened, but then price retraced back into the channel rendering it an FBO.

 

[spooz_trader1]

Quote from bundlemaker:
PRV seems to be fooling me. At critical points, what was a green (red) bar shifts to red (green) and what you thought was confirming something did the opposite. When you have this happen several times intra-bar on the same bar I’m at a loss as to proper course of action. Also, does a high volume inside bar mean anything?

When PRV is moderately increasing, say you’re half way through the bar, and price is only a tick or so away from the previous bar’s close, is there anything you can do with PRV? Or does one wait until the close of the bar in that instance? Or is this perhaps where the medium and fine course tools might come into play?

Bundlemaker,

Thanks for bring this up. I too would like to foster some discussion on this if it's relevent at this point in the thread. I referred to this as "intrabar PV" a short while back but I didn't explain it as clearly as you did.

I spent a good part of the am logging PRV in a spreadsheet. Unlike my previous days logging, I just focused on PRV & PV. I noted if PRV was increasing, decreasing within the bar as well as how the current bar Vol compared to the previous bar. I also noted price "turns" intrabar. I noted in an "Anticipated" column what I should expect based on my current knowledge of PV.

"Turns" are tricky for me to analyze in real-time. In hindsight, you don't see the turn unless you drill down and analyze the bar open & close. And you don't know how many "turns" were in the bar.

If this is off-topic (or will be addressed with future tools), I apoligize and everyone just ignore this for now. Otherwise, it would be cool to foster some discussion on this topic.

Thanks,

spooz

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from dkm:

So my understanding now is that if price reaches the left trend line and does not break through it i.e. it begins a left to right retracement, then it should been considered as an FBO and an exit is in order. After thinking about this, it is quite logical. A break through the left trend line will mean (a) the channel is getting wider and (b) price is moving in the desired direction, giving the rule HOLD when seeing a BO. If it fails to BO i.e. bounces, then exit. On bar 57 we did get a BO and the channel widened, but then price retraced back into the channel rendering it an FBO.

When defining an FBO or a BO, I use the convention outlined in this post. You have the thinking correct, but you need to switch you left and right. Keep in mind, we are looking at what happens after the FTT.

When we have an FTT, and we have price fail to breach the right trend line, we call it an FBO. When price continues to exceed the left trend line, we call it a volatility expansion and add additional (and parallel) trend lines.

While one can look at the Bar 57 example and note price failed to break through the left trend line, one could say it too provided an example of an FBO. In reality, the price action at that time simply provided an example of a LTR retrace.

Hope that helped.

- Spydertrader

 

[EstebanUno]

Quote from dkm:

Here are my notes for today, produced from monitoring just the 5 min ES chart. Hopefully this might show up some flaws in my thinking (no pun intended)

...

Good post, dkm. Very helpful. Your thinking seems "flawless" to me.