Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from ljyoung:

Anyone have any thoughts, experience, words of wisdom, etc.
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"All things being equal," you correctly calculated the offset values based on our discussion yesterday. However, the first bar of the day created an environment where things developed in a decidedly unequal fashion - creating a large gap up at this morning's open. When such an event occurs, one does need to recalculate STR-SQU during a relative 'calm' period of the opening few bars. Jack advises waiting until market 'sync' at Bar Three. I do not require a 'waiting period' for recalculation, but one does need a relative 'market calm' moment in order to correctly 'do the math.'

- Spydertrader
 
When such an event occurs, one does need to recalculate STR-SQU during a relative 'calm' period of the opening few bars. Jack advises waiting until market 'sync' at Bar Three. I do not require a 'waiting period' for recalculation, but one does need a relative 'market calm' moment in order to correctly 'do the math.'


Gracias. It always amazes me how obvious something is when someone else points it out to you. Yes - a 246 point opening gap would definitely fall into the category of a significant dysequilibration [the "dys" prefix is a medical term meaning painful or unpleasant]. A beautiful AB (adjacent bar) square wave odd harmonic in the early YM trace (bars 3 and 4) was perhaps the market's response to said perturbation.

lj
 
Quote from Tums:

If you can't pull fake dollars after 11 months, you really have to do an introspection and ask yourself WHY.

1. Why are you still here?
2. Are you really drawing "perfect" charts??? (I don't recall seeing your "perfect" charts.)
3. Is this a psychological thing? or methodological thing?
4. Why can't you pull fake dollars? Why? Are you doing a real time journal? If you aren't, then stop thinking about trading NOW. Go get a piece of paper and write down your thoughts in real time during the day.
5. What have you discovered in your debrief? (I bet you don't even do debrief. or your debrief is "thinking" while picking your navel.)

If you can't pick out two pt3 trades a day in sim, no amount of video can help you.

My recommendation is to:
1. post your "perfect" charts everyday. (try doing this for a month.)
2. draw on your chart where you could have entered a pt3 trade. (pick only the safest trades.)
3. study those formations. Understand why these are "safest".
4. close your eyes and commit these formations to your memory as if they are playing a video in your mind.


Do this for a month and you won't have to ask for entry/exit in the ES journal.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1695024#post1695024
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Tums is right on the money (pun intended).

I think "success at EACH step along the way" *still* isn't getting through to some or *still* isn't emphasized enough.

- Success at realizing the PV relationship
- Success at annotating basic tapes and point 3 channels
- Success at confirming alignment of those annotations with changes in volume
- Success in understanding and recognizing non-ideal price formations such as flaws, CCCs, etc.
- Success at picking the most basic channel entries and exits. Enter on point 3's, exit when dominants lose pace completely.
- Success at trading more sophisticated entries, such as on pt. 3 channel ftts.
- Success at incorporating the intrabar analysis tools into chart analysis
- Success at incorporating a set of tools for more advanced trading.

I myself am simply trading point 3 entries at this point, without even looking at the intrabar analysis tools. Even if you don't use those tools, the trading is consistently profitable when you master the PV relationship in real time on a single chart.

I'm still on sim, but for me personally I've already made and lost enough money so that sim vs. real capital is not as much of an issue as it is for others. My purpose is to document continual improvement of *consistency* in my day-to-day PNL. I have quickly realized that even with the most basic trading strategy, used in conjuction with channels and the PV relationship, there can be more than enough profit to blow away the track records of some of the best known traders.

Success at EACH STEP OF THE WAY.

RT
 
You think that was an easy one (pt 3 up)? Personally, I didnt anticipate it. I did short after the FBO and made 3 ticks but the way the bars formed, I didnt see a pt 3 up there. After the 1:00 bar on increased red, I couldnt get my mind to see pt 3 up.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Quote from RoughTrader:

That being said, while I was typing I missed a perfectly good pt.3 entry to the upside :mad:

RT
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Quote from The Swordsman:

You think that was an easy one (pt 3 up)? Personally, I didnt anticipate it. I did short after the FBO and made 3 ticks but the way the bars formed, I didnt see a pt 3 up there. After the 1:00 bar on increased red, I couldnt get my mind to see pt 3 up.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?
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In the yellow circled area, you see the bar that I have annotated as "3". The bar is overall red, but there is a upward bounce component. The following bar shows PRV comparable to the end V of the previous bar. That previous bar contained the bounce, so the actual "down move" volume is less than the current bar PRV. That is the signal that the current bar is moving in a dominant traverse, and we get long in the middle of the bar.

RT
 

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How are you seeing this bounce component? After 13:10, I see the 13:00 bar as the FTT and have 13:35 as pt 3. Gaussian-wise this makes sense to me. But prior to that, I dont see enough evidence that the mkt wont continue heading lower after the 13:00 bar. For all we know, this 13:00 could lead to a new faster paced pt 3 down. Perhaps you are just ahead of me knowledge wise and therefore I need to step up :D

Are you using the one minute chart to see what was happening intrabar for 13:00? Or is it something else?

Quote from RoughTrader:

In the yellow circled area, you see the bar that I have annotated as "3". The bar is overall red, but there is a upward bounce component. The following bar shows PRV comparable to the end V of the previous bar. That previous bar contained the bounce, so the actual "down move" volume is less than the current bar PRV. That is the signal that the current bar is moving in a dominant traverse, and we get long in the middle of the bar.

RT
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Quote from The Swordsman:

How are you seeing this bounce component? After 13:10, I see the 13:00 bar as the FTT and have 13:35 as pt 3. Gaussian-wise this makes sense to me. But prior to that, I dont see enough evidence that the mkt wont continue heading lower after the 13:00 bar. For all we know, this 13:00 could lead to a new faster paced pt 3 down. Perhaps you are just ahead of me knowledge wise and therefore I need to step up :D

Are you using the one minute chart to see what was happening intrabar for 13:00? Or is it something else?
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Yes, you are correct, my bar annotated "3" is an ftt for the trend to the downside. An ftt can be a point 1 OR a point 3 for a new channel, depending on how the channel reversal unfolds.

The key item here is the volume. It (PRV) is clearly picking up compared to the end-of-bar volume of the previous bar. Additionally, our point 1 and *tentative* point 3 show an up-sloping 1-2-3 formation in the process of confirmation.

I am not using any intrabar analysis tools to make the decisions (other than PRV).

RT
 
Quote from RoughTrader:

That being said, while I was typing I missed a perfectly good pt.3 entry to the upside :mad:

RT
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That's why I have my signals programed in audio alerts. ;-)


BTW, excellent step by step success road map.
 
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