Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Chart for the morning.

I caught the 1st point three at 1445.25 and stayed in until 1449 and a couple of (easy) points on the way down.

If only I had reversed right there at 1449 :-) Sometimes you forget the best exit is the best entry to the other side. You are in position and you know "something is wrong" so you get out. This time it was an FTT and YM gave an early indication. If you really trust your feeling you reverse.. The timing was very good both on entry and exit.

Current situation is we had BO but I am not confident price will continue to go up because we were still in a tape on ES (so I expect another pt3 down after the tape is broken or at least an attempt) + I just saw another FTT in the new up channel. (or should I call it a failed pt3 up after BO)

Furthermore volume and volatility was decreasing when RTL was broken indicating our down channel will be wider...

Anyway I am out because of volume issues I think price won't do really much until the afternoon.

regards,
Ivo
 

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Today, Monday, was an outside bar on both ES and YM.

This means a new tape pt1.

The price FBO up then BO down.

The volume was relatively low so we're near a channel RTL.

We anticipate an R to L traverse. But we have to be prepared for an RTL BO too.
Quote from TIKITRADER:

This is what I have for the ES daily chart this evening.
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Today, Monday, was an outside bar on both ES and YM.

Una pregunta, por favor, cnms2. When you do the "carry-over" from the prior session (which I agree is absolutely essential) is it protocol to take the 3:55-4:00 bar as the final bar for the ES session and similarly the 3:58-4:00 bar for the YM [albeit that the session on Friday was shortened]?

TIA

lj
 
I guess your question is not related to the quote ...

Anyway, I don't use the kind of carryover you're talking about, but from what I've read you should treat it as a continuum, so you should include the last bar of the previous day. You should also be aware of the max and the min prices of the post market session.
Quote from ljyoung:

Today, Monday, was an outside bar on both ES and YM.

Una pregunta, por favor, cnms2. When you do the "carry-over" from the prior session (which I agree is absolutely essential) is it protocol to take the 3:55-4:00 bar as the final bar for the ES session and similarly the 3:58-4:00 bar for the YM [albeit that the session on Friday was shortened]?

TIA

lj
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Quote from FerdinandAlx:

The afternoon of November 26th 2007:
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Was there anyone here who thought the 15:40 bar was change?

What is the correct thinking here? Volume too high for it to be an FTT? Channel was very steep and there had not been a retrace yet so expect another pt3 down?

The next bar (15:45) had flaw volume so had you gone long at 15:40 then you would have held here.

Of course the next bar is breakout of FTP telling you the long side is not the right side. However this could have costed 2 points.

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

Was there anyone here who thought the 15:40 bar was change?
Ivo
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Yes. Paricularly with the intrabar shift, although this makes interpretation of volume somewhat tricky.

What is the correct thinking here? Volume too high for it to be an FTT?

Many FTT's occur on peaking volume so I don't think vol can be "too high"

Channel was very steep and there had not been a retrace yet so expect another pt3 down?

Since the initial pt 3 at 13:35 there were numerous flaws and ve's so anticipation of an FTT was appropriate imho.

The next bar (15:45) had flaw volume so had you gone long at 15:40 then you would have held here.

Of course the next bar is breakout of FTP telling you the long side is not the right side. However this could have costed 2 points.

Using coarse tools only (ES, YM and prv) I don't think that a price movement of 2 pts is unusual before seeing a signal that shows that an "ftt" was actually a flaw. Assuming that one went long at the close of the 15:40 bar (1419) one should be anticipating a rally with decr black vol. The fact that the 15:45 bar is red shows that what we have here is a flaw and the appropriate action would be to reverse at or near the close (1417.75), a loss of 1.25 pts. In hindsight, what we have prior to 15:40 is an hvs; a flaw that the "tree level" trader should hold through, but this is easier said than done when one is anticipating an ftt.
 

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