Here is my reply to a PM I received today in reference to callmate's chart from earlier today and my post that followed. Thought it might be of interest.
First the DT FTT on the 1045 bar let me know to expect price to go down. Could be a retrace so let's watch what happens at the RTL. Barely increasing blk volume compared to the volume that made the DT. So I check the YM and see blk volume about the same, not increasing. So now I think, pt 2 down, and wait for a pt3 to form. Yes the YM matched the HOD but on LESS volume AND since the ES didn't follow, I assume the ES is WEAKER. Therefore I wait to go short on inc red vol.
Notice this same scenario repeated again starting with the FTT at 1150.
The confidence comes from lots of screen time and KNOWING that I do in fact KNOW what to 'expect' next and if 'it' doesn't show up, then exit and regroup.