Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

[Aurum]

FTT has been defined.

Since BO and FBO are part of the beginner identification and action sequence, could we define those also?

My understanding (correctly or not) is that a breakout occurs when price crosses the current right trendline to the "outside" of the channel.

In other words, if you have an up channel, a BO occurs when price goes down through the RTL.

A failed breakout, ambiguously, is when a BO has happened, but price retreats back into the channel it broke out from.

 

[hypostomus]

Aurum. No disrespect, but it remains to be proved that it works on all time frames. The present tutorial will presumably prove that it works on 5 minute. I am merely representing the views of a wide audience here who believe that a workable system is a testable system, and I am pointing out and collecting the rules as they are presented. Mike.

 

[Bearbelly]

Quote from makosgu:

In time we will get to this. I have spent a bunch of time in this arena and have a whole bunch of "engineering tools" that quantify this. At a very simple level, you can consider the resolution. For every ONE tick that ES moves, you will find that YM will have moved MORE THAN ONE YM tick. This is a fine resolution item. What you will then need to back out and picture is whether or not the two pairs behave similarly/reliably. Again, there are engineering analytics that can be used... This is months down the line...

Regards,
MAK

Durn. I want to open my presents now.

 

[Aurum]

None taken Hypo, and I better understand your viewpoint.

Will you be running concurrent tests on the NQ, using a different timeframe?

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from hypostomus:

Rules, or just accidents of the examples?

Accidents of the examples.

Quote from hypostomus:

My question about the 20 SMA was not meant to be flippant, I assumed you were going somewhere with it, and when to start it is a rule. Best regards. Mike.

I did not take your question as flippant. The 20 SMA won't fall into a 'Rule' Category in the normal sense. The 20 SMA appears more as a mile marker or sign post - providing context along the route travelled. I'll have more on the 20 SMA when we discuss the DOM / Time and Sales Tool. For now, a trader should simply observe the changes (based on context), which result from price and volume, as price approaches the 20 SMA.

Good Trading to you.

- Spydertrader

 

[EdgeHunter]

Quote from Magna:

Spydertrader (along with a few others) are graciously taking a tremendous amount of their time and energy to attempt something here that few at ET have ever done.

Amen to that...

Constantly creating and posting disciplined, articulate and lengthy threads is very taxing and time consuming...

This is like building a book from scratch...

cj...


HAVE STOP <img src="http://www.enflow.com/p.gif"> WILL TRADE

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from Aurum:

Since BO and FBO are part of the beginner identification and action sequence, could we define those also?

I refer to BO and FBO as end effects (along with another FTT). In other words, I look for what occurs after an FTT. For the purposes of this Journal, I define an FBO as failing to break out of the right side trend line, or after doing so, fails to remain outside the trend line (right side) for one bar. I define a BO as price breaking through the right side trend line, and remaining outside the channel for at least one bar. See attached examples where two trends fight for dominance.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1310580>

 

[hypostomus]

Spydertrader. Thank you for the clarification. Then perhaps you can relieve me of a difficulty I faced trying to trade FTTs in NQ. In the examples you showed, you did not identify the first bar failing to touch the left side as THE FTT. (A less respectful correspondent might cry "Hindsight!".) Am I missing a subsidiary rule? I must add that I am not asking merely to be argumentative. The pain of losses trading FFTTs (false FTTs) still lingers. Which is why I now trade head-and-shoulders supported by other reversal indications, regardless of what the lines are saying. To preview where I am going, how MUCH of a failure constitutes a failure? Rules, rules, rules. Best regards. Mike.

Edit: Also, I notice that sometimes you start the channel on the second bar indicative of a reversal, rather than always using the first bar. Raising another rule question, how much of a reversal makes you call a reversal? Itchy fingers and confused minds need rules to avoid losses.

 

[foible]

Quote from Aurum:

I've always understood the statement to be an IF...THEN construct. IF sufficient liquidity exists in the given market on the given timeframe, THEN the FTT works (on that timeframe.)

That's more or less how I see it. I'm only adding the observation that markets which seem illiquid and noisy on one fractal become smooth and liquid on another. Once you find the fractal which represents sufficient liquidity, the FTT will work.

 

[Bearbelly]

Hypo

Are you referring to this bar? It gets pretty complicated at times. This could be considered an ftt in the green channel but not in the red channel so we need to know which channel has precedence. Since the red channel is a retrace on the green channel I suspect that this bar is not an ftt but Im still learning.

<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1310628">