Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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The Green arrow should actually point to the black bar (one bar to the right). I was in a hurry at the end of the day. Sorry for the confusion. The colors (of the Price Bars) are simply reversed from what we normally see on an uptrending Dip.
- Spydertrader
Spy, would you mind walking through this series of bars... You have it listed as an HVS, but I did not perceive it as that at the time. The big red bar seemed to me like an FTT. And if the next bars DO form an HVS, doesn't there need to be an additional FTT somewhere since it came in from the top, and must come out from below, barring any overriding signals of change? What did I miss? I suppose if the big red bar IS an FTT, which signifies a change in sentiment, then we are coming into the HVS from the bottom and out from the top........ right? 
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1486481">
Also, from the chat:
"Spydertrader (May 31, 2007 3:34:25 PM)
15:10 shows priuce headed higher on decreasing balck ok so what do we have eliminated ? Can't be cccc (too much volume) can't be hitch (price bars to volatile) can't be a dip (highs and low equal, so we might have stall or HVS"
I caught the HVS there, but just wanted to note that I had increasing black where you had decreasing black. Leave it to Qcharts to come up short on vol #s...
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1486481">
Also, from the chat:
"Spydertrader (May 31, 2007 3:34:25 PM)
15:10 shows priuce headed higher on decreasing balck ok so what do we have eliminated ? Can't be cccc (too much volume) can't be hitch (price bars to volatile) can't be a dip (highs and low equal, so we might have stall or HVS"
I caught the HVS there, but just wanted to note that I had increasing black where you had decreasing black. Leave it to Qcharts to come up short on vol #s...
See Attached. I have a channel (Pink Lines) drawn in slightly different than your (thin lined) Orange Channel. The different slopes of our two channels create how we both viewed the Price Action at that time. The first red bar in my chart creates a Left Trend line bounce. As a result, I cannot consider this bar an FTT. The next Bar (black on my chart, purple on yours) does form an FTT, but it does so only in the context of the Pink Channel (Yellow Highlight). After this bar (black on mine / purple on yours) Price exits the Pink Channel effectively ending that trend.
However, on a more Coarse Resolution Level (Orange or Brown Channel on my chart), the 13:35 bar does not show decreasing black Volume with increasing Black Price as we would expect after an FTT. As a result, we know we have a flaw. All that remains is for us to figure out what kind of flaw we see.
While the 13:35 bar forms, we can eliminate several flaws from consideration. CCC we can throw out right away (as Volume remains way too high). Also, we can axe a Hitch from consideration (as Price Volatility is too high). Still in the 13:35 Bar, we see our possibilities now as Dip, Stall and HVS. As we see the 13:35 Bar approach its time to close (13:40), we now eliminate Stall from our list (as we would need to see increasing red Volume and Price being driven lower). Dip remains a possibility until we see the 13:40 bar open and Price head higher. This leaves us with an HVS. We know flaws represent continuation on the Forest / Tree level. As such, we need to determine how we entered the HVS, so we can determine how price plans to exit.
Back to the very first red bar again we see the Left Trend Line Bounce caused Price to head up and into the HVS. As a result, we expect continuation to take us up and out of the HVS. Now that we have correctly determine the Price action, all that remains is for us to make sure we have no over-riding signal for change (FTT or FBO) while awaiting the increasing black PRV Volume which alerts us to the upcoming Break Out of this Lateral Channel.
On your chart, you did have an FTT (Orange Channel) which provided a signal for change (reverse long from the previous short position). See, you really do know this stuff. Don't let your mind confuse you.
Allow yourself to know that you do know.- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1486522>
For those having difficulty distinguishing between Flaws and FTT's, take a look at my chart posted above. Go through each Traverse (bar by bar) and note how many Traverses show an FTT forming after a Flaw or after a Volatility Expansion.
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
I hope everyone finds the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
This is something that concerns me, I have the same time frame you have but my 13:40 vol is inc black, NK's is dec black making the HVS much more obvious. I see Spyders is the same as mine however he still has HVS labeled. Its just a little frustrating when small details like that paint a different picture.
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