Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?
Not too good for me. I'm still trading the beginner method, entering on the Point 3 and exiting on the LTL BO. Most of the problems come from not getting in right at the top of the LTL (PT3), and getting small losses on the BO if it is soon after the entry.

I also incur larger losses if I try to get in too early, where the trend line needs to be fanned out. Waiting for me usually turns in to a reversal rather than a retrace.

How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?
All of the above. I still can't seem to make the right call. If I hold and wait for the price to establish itself along the trend lines I often watch profits slip away as the price retraces and then reverses. If I exit early, I see the price continue right along the trend line. Sometimes I think I just have been born under an unlucky star, but I realize I'm probably just guessing because I still am not recognizing the signs correctly.

Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?
I can go back and draw the gaussians and channels perfectly after everything is done, and my real-time drawings look very similar to everyone else's, however trading still seems to always produce negative results.

Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see improvement?
I continue to see difficulty in execution of trades. I see improvements in drawing the channels and Gaussian.

Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussian and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate continuation or change?
Getting better at the channels and gaussians but the STR/SQU has me stumped. I'm thinking I may be setup wrong because it seems to be indicating in reverse, ie: when I see RED price is going up? See screen shot for how I am setup. This was taken today at about 2:18.

strsqz.gif


and finally ....

How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?
I'm thinking the STR / SQU might help with some of my problems detailed above. Unfortunately I have not been able to 'SEE' it yet. I'd appreciate some feedback on if I'm just 'SO FAR' off track that STR / SQU will be of no help, or if I'm on the right track or not.

That's kind of personal plea for help, but other than that what you are already doing for the group is fantastic. Especially so of the recent posts where you detailed example charts.

Thanks,
Bryan
 
--- How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?

Mostly good, still recognizing HVS and CCC too late.

--- How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?

Calm for the most part, confused when getting seemingly conflicting change signals.

--- Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?

Yes, the majority of the time.

--- Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see improvement?

Gaussians and their relation to the channels is way better. Still some trouble with "change" and resolution level, that should come with time.

--- Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate continuation or change?

Yes on Channels and Gaussians. Use STR/SQZ "when" it signals, mostly for confirmation.

and finally ....
--- How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?

Clarification when trading all the FTT's: we need more than one indicator/signal for change. If we get more than one signal for change on the YM, do we wait for the ES to have a change signal as well?

The thought process and change signals as we go through these periods today would be helpful: 10:40 - 11:10 and 13:30 - 14:10

The afternoon section was much easier to read in hindsight, but during that time it wasn't as clear. Usually problems in these areas caused by narrowing ranges or longer stalls, and trying to "read the direction or find change" until the late realization it's a stall, pennant or CCC formation.

Those are actually minor areas. Overall things are going good.
 
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?

I am monitoring the market and feel good that I am reading it much better than say 4 months ago.


Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?

I am getting better at spotting the FTTs and point 3s.

Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see improvement?

I still have difficulty matching Gaussians with Channels but more screen time with like minded people will definitely see marked improvement in the coming months.

Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate continuation or change?

Drawing the Channels correctly real time and marking the Gaussians help to anticipate continuation/change.

How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?

For me simply being able to draw the channels (“just doing it”) has been a turning point. Thank you for the journal and being here to answer everyone’s questions.
Thank you to Ezzy, all the “Tucsons” in particular to Pr0.
 
I am trading cash with moderate success. I am entering on point 3 and exiting on what I percieve to be an ftt which is about 50/50. I am trading 5min Es with PRV. The guassians on YM have helped me a bit. Str/sq has done nothing for me so far.
 
--- How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?

Finding an ebb and flow of getting it and then losing the plot.
Each time I lose the plot I have decided to go back to the beggining, and trading only from p3 is working well.

Spotting HVS only in hindsight.

Main issues are intra-bar. I'm fine if price continues without much of a pause but reading the point of change is failing me. Is it change or a slight pause /slight retrace. ?
How much of a move constitutes change baring in mind spread/commission a tick or two late etc..?

--- How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?

Calm wrt to P3, as I'm using a RTL as a stop.
Although as with today's late sell off I would prefer to bank profits before price retraces to RTL and at times I am not clear if another P3 is forming or we get BO.

--- Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?

Mostly, although finding change without clear FTT difficult. Much of today (before sell off) is good example or what could seem like change (to me) but with no follow through on next bar.

--- Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see improvement?

Continue to see improvement on Foret level (P3) and gaussian on tree level.
Difficulties as above wrt intra bar change.
--- Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate continuation or change?

Probably not as much I would like or is required.
I am ok with Forest level although not keen on just holding for retrace all the way back to RTL.

Have not been able to use St/Sq with Esignal.

and finally ....
--- How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?

Although FTT are part of Forest level ie P3 to FTT even if only using FTT to close, I have tried to open on an FTT but again the intra bar reading is not good. I might see increased PVR on a black bar having bought off an FTT for example, thus thinking all is well for the up move, only for bar to close red. I understand the amount of vol is relative but sometimes price continues against me sometimes not. I don't really know how quickly I ought to react on the downside and also too often I find I was better to have taken a small profit as I'm unable to see if the ticks against me are "change" or "noise"

Biggest lesson, when things get confussing I just start at the beggining again with the coarse forest level and wait patiently for a P3.

A huge thankyou Spyder for your continued efforts here.

FilterTip
 
How have your trades (real, simulated or monitored) go over the last week?

Not bad at all compared to before. I am waiting to be profitable every day for a week or three in a row before trading live and I know this will not take a long time anymore.

How do you feel during the trades? Anxious? Nervous? Ecstatic?

Relaxed. The first few minutes of course very focussed on the now and if everything is going as it is supposed to go. I start making mistakes when I lose 2 times or so in a row. Even if it is a washed trade and I make 1 tick. What follows is a high risk period for me. I am really starting to think in terms of continuation and change so I have no problem to let profits run when there's no change signal.

Can you 'see' the market as it unfolds?

Yes. most certainly.

Where do you continue to see difficulty, and where do you continue to see improvement?

Difficulty:
1. The opening gives opportunities but is also risky. I don't want to miss too much of it. I find it difficult to trade, also because of the high pace of the market during the opening. I guess the procedure is: Determine the dominant and trade on pt3.

2. I make mistakes when the afternoon is approaching and volume gets lower. It is not very difficult then to give away all of your profits. So I should pay more attention to current pace of the market. If # of contracts is getting low or on first sign of CCC: get out.

3. I sometimes trade emotional, impulsive and impatient after a few errors. After winning I feel very relaxed like I don't have to trade anymore. When losing I want to make up for it asap. This is the wrong mindset because I always have to trade but only when the opportunities are there.

Improvements:
1. Identifying an FTT at the right moment. Getting quite good at this and getting good at skipping the FTT's that look like FTT's but in the end of the bar are not FTT's. Becoming more patient.

2. Determining what's going on after the FTT. I know usually before RTL break if price will continue the original direction or not. I can see what's missing and what should be expected and when, also after the RTL is broken.

3. Timing of placing the trade (pt 3's)

4. Letting profits run. We are taught to sideline when we don't know what's going on but I find it equally important to have to be in the market when we do know what's going on. Of course it still happens when I think I know what's going on and in fact I don't. Especially in lower volume periods.

Can you correctly use Channels, Gaussians and STR / SQU to correctly anticipate continuation or change?

Yes but I do find str/sq tricky. You have to know exactly the moments when to look at it. Your comments about reversing when going intra-bar and getting several signals within the same bar I have just started to digest recently although it makes perfect sense.

How can I help, or what additional aspects need further clarification?

Mm. Hard to answer because I am very grateful for everything you do. My opinion is that anyone who is willing to do the work and is reading very well what is written here will get there. But ideally I would like to see a recorded screen capture of your complete screen and hearing you giving comments on the market and placing trades. This would anwer some questions like am I looking for the right thing, am I too fast, etc.

regards,
Ivo
 
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