Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Futures Trading Journal

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Quote from Spydertrader:

Price did touch the red trend line - back at Point Three (10:00 AM Eastern Time). From that point forward, we have continuation (next bar), a failed retrace (black bar), volatility expansion, a High Volatility Stall (HVS) until price Fails to Traverse to the left trend line.

- Spydertrader

AHA, ok. I understand. So if I am right a volatility expansion is not the same as price touching the left trendline. Is that right?

In that case why isn't the 9:55 bar an FTT? After all there is a volatility expansion of the blue LTL and after that price fails to touch it. Or is it that price doesn't really seem to try to touch it?

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

Hi, this is obvious in hindsight but at the moment quite hard to determine IMO. (not the easiest move). You need to wait for the second red bar to finish before you find out it's not just a retracement but a reversal. When you have point 3, we still don't know this or do you?

The premise of your question is incorrect. We don't see the reversal until price breaks through the RTL of the Green Up Channel long after the point to which you refer. What we do have within our Red Down Channel is continuation (increasing red Volume) on a finer resolution level. As to waiting for the bar to close in order to determine continuation, we can and do see it develop in real time. As to the increasing red volume showing continuation in a down channel, we have a Point Three and we (on a PRV basis) see increasing red volume. What more does one need to know?

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Try to 'see' two different Gaussian formations at work here. One involves the Green Up Trend Channel as price 'retraces', then reverses at the Green RTL (\/- R2R) - a big picture view (blue arrows). The second Gaussian formation within this larger picture involves the red channel (circles and highlights). Since the red channel already has a 'Point Three' we look for continuation with increasing red volume and retraces with decreasing black. The red channel Gaussians exist within the bigger picture.

Note the attached 'zoomed' view. Can you 'see' the market signals now?

- Spydertrader
Spyder, yes, I see it now. Thanks!
I'll need more screen time to sharpen my sensitivity these formations.
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

The premise of your question is incorrect. We don't see the reversal until price breaks through the RTL of the Green Up Channel long after the point to which you refer. What we do have within our Red Down Channel is continuation (increasing red Volume) on a finer resolution level. As to waiting for the bar to close in order to determine continuation, we can and do see it develop in real time. As to the increasing red volume showing continuation in a down channel, we have a Point Three and we (on a PRV basis) see increasing red volume. What more does one need to know?

- Spydertrader

Of course you are right about the reversal. So which red bar are you referring to when you are talking about increasing red volume on a finer resolution? Did you see it when the second red bar was developing somewhere halfway or in the first one?

regards,
Ivo
 
Quote from ivob:

Of course you are right about the reversal. So which red bar are you referring to when you are talking about increasing red volume on a finer resolution? Did you see it when the second red bar was developing somewhere halfway or in the first one?

See the attached chart. Note the 'pink-ish' arrows. This specific bar begins by moving higher from its open. When price begins to move back down, we have our Point Three. As price crosses below the open, Volume turns from Black to Red. Increasing Red volume after a Point Three Down Channel signals continuation.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1370320>

We see an early warning of Price Direction at the same time on the YM (See second chart). We also have increasing Red Volume on the YM.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1370321>

- Spydertrader
 

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Quote from Bearbelly:

This a bit off topic at this point but I thought maybe someone here could help me that is proficient with Excel. I want to create a running histogram of the spread between YM and INDU similiar to the one some of you Tradestation users have. I am trying to learn excel and I dont think this should be all that difficult but am hoping someone can put me on the fast track.

Hi Bearbelly
Mak's excellent Excel PRV tool does this.

I've noticed that there are a lot of questions re. PRV. For me it was a pain to calculate PRV without the right tools - it was, shall we say, CPU intensive. I've been using Mak's PRV tool for a couple of months and it frees your mind to stay on the big picture. Invaluable. I don't think I could trade without it now. Others have the bouncing ball (TS) - if someone develops this for Quotetracker I'd be very grateful.
 
Spyder,

I remember you saying that if there is no sentiment change overnight, then you often resume your position from the previous day. Of course, this is assuming that we are beyond "forest" level, so those of you who are not, ignore this... Anyway, at the end of yesterday at 16:00 there was an FTT, are you going to start the day off short, since you would be short right now if the day had not ended?

Thanks
 
Quote from Pr0crast:

Anyway, at the end of yesterday at 16:00 there was an FTT, are you going to start the day off short, since you would be short right now if the day had not ended?

The following response does not apply to Coarse (Forest) Level Resolution:

Assuming no overnight (or pre-market) sentiment change (economic report, geopolitical event) then yes, I plan to maintain a short bias into the open. As I type, the YM overnight trade sits at 12702 - exactly the same spot at which it 'closed' earlier today. Should the YM find itself at or near that same spot at 9:29:59 Eastern Time tomorrow morning, I'd definitely enter short. However, much can (and often does) change overnight.

- Spydertrader
 
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