Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III

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Quote from Susukino:

Spyder, do you find that anticipating trades makes sense? I got into FMCN at 9:38 (59.08) on the very rapid rise in volume, but by early afternoon it began to look unlikely (to my eyes) that FRV would be hit without a surge in volume in the final hour. Accordingly I got out at 2:54 for 59.94. In fact we did get a surge in volume in the last 30 minutes and we did pretty much hit FRV. Should I just have grit my teeth and sat on my inexperienced hands or am I right to be trying to anticipate?

Thanks
Suss
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Last 30 minute bar was about 380k. So that means, prior to the last bar, volume was around 2.4mil, which is higher than friday's volume, which in turn was higher than thursday's volume, with inc price.

Recognizing that inc volume, compared to the previous days', as long as it's not over extreme volume, is a very bullish signal/continuation signal.

Plus, look at the slow stoch, it has the "intertwining" around the 80 line that defines an "iceberg".

What was your fast stoch saying prior to the your exit? Fast line above?

If you're conservative, a 1 1/2 % gain /day is ok. I'd say that while you're learning, assuming you're at that level, conservative is good cuz it keeps you "in the game" until you gain more experience.

Watch it tomorrow, I have it still at the bottom of the channel, which as Spyder attested to in the 1st? journal gave him a much better success rate.
 

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Quote from Haroki:
Last 30 minute bar was about 380k. So that means, prior to the last bar, volume was around 2.4mil, which is higher than friday's volume, which in turn was higher than thursday's volume, with inc price.
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Haroki, appreciate your comments. I am trying to stick to the rules as much as I can, which is why I was looking for FRV but I take your point about rising volume being bullish even if not hitting FRV. As you suggest, I plan to be conservative for a while. It'll be interesting to see what FMCN does today.

Cheers
Suss
 
Quote from Susukino:

Haroki, appreciate your comments. I am trying to stick to the rules as much as I can, which is why I was looking for FRV but I take your point about rising volume being bullish even if not hitting FRV. As you suggest, I plan to be conservative for a while. It'll be interesting to see what FMCN does today.

Cheers
Suss
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From my experience and backtest and as suggested also by mischief , when FRV is not hit by the end of the day (and obviously no target or stop loss is triggered) , selling the day after at the open ( I give myself a 5 minutes window to exit), seems to give a better result.

I don't want to add confusion to the method, just something you might want to verify
 
Quote from mark1:

From my experience and backtest and as suggested also by mischief , when FRV is not hit by the end of the day (and obviously no target or stop loss is triggered) , selling the day after at the open ( I give myself a 5 minutes window to exit), seems to give a better result.

I don't want to add confusion to the method, just something you might want to verify
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Right, forgot about that one.

Additionally, if you hold it until the next day, and you're using Quotetracker , the PRV tool MIGHT predict FRV for the current day.
 
Haroki, thanks for posting your trades/charts :) Very inspirational. A quick question:

On your FMCN chart from today (9. oct.), you have a gaussian that looks like this:
\ / \ /
BRRB

It is my understanding that a R2R only can look like this: \ /

Am I missing something?
:confused:


Cheers!

/Munck
 
Quote from Munck:

Haroki, thanks for posting your trades/charts :) Very inspirational. A quick question:

On your FMCN chart from today (9. oct.), you have a gaussian that looks like this:
\ / \ /
BRRB

It is my understanding that a R2R only can look like this: \ /

Am I missing something?
:confused:


Cheers!

/Munck
More...

You're welcome. Just wish I coud be as patient/knowledgable a teacher as Spyder.

R2R - that's the way I see it.I'm not aware of any "rules" about how your gaussians "need" to be formed. I saw dec black for 2 days, inc red for 2 days, then dec red for 4 days, then inc black for 3 days. So that's how I wrote it.

Right now - JRJC, SOLF, TRA.

Go get 'em....
 
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