generally we avoid earning stocks.. simply for the reason that they are very unpredicatable.... for example, if you observe earning stocks for a while, you'll notice that sometimes eventhough they reported good earnings, the price still tanks.... and sometimes they go up only to get hammer back down again.... this is the time when a lot of institutions and players with big pockets do their dirty tricks.... 'cuz they know a lot of people are dumping their money on these stocks, so they can use this time to do their manipulations. for example, they can knock the price down to a level where all the recetny buyers who just bought it at a high price can't take the price drop and forces them to sell their shares, and then the stock keep dropping, and then a few days later, they'll sweep up all the shares at the bottom and take the stock back up.... so you never know.... it's just harder to make money consistenly off earning stocks in my opinion... you might have a few big winners once in a while, but you will most definetly get a few big losers... and when you have a big losers, it's hard to let go, 'cuz you'll keep telling yourself... oh the earning is pretty good, it'll go up eventually... but then it's just a guess game of when the stock will bounce back up and a battle between whether or not you or the big institution can handle more pain... and the little guys always get hurt.
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Thanks for sharing your insights, Chief.
Thanks Guys! Here are my charts for RIMM and AAPL. I've shorted both today. $168.50 for RIM.TO and $109.68 for AAPL. Will be adding to the AAPL position at breaks of $107.5
Again, they are NOT on the FU list; the lack of opportunities in the FU list led me to play with both currently.
Spyder has been asked about FTT in different markets/stocks; FTT works in any market provided liquity exists.
My challenge on these trades is identifying the points 1-2-3 and reading the volume correctly relative to the price action.
Here is the chart for RIMM
Hi guys, Im 1 week in to trading this method and am only about 1/2 way through reading all the material so I am nowhere near up to speed with you. Im trying to only focus on a smaller number of stocks for now until I get a better idea of what Im doing.
Anyways, in my opinion, IAAC seems like the best candidate of the stocks spydertrader listed in DU from a week ago to start an uptrend soon. My reasoning is based on its overall current price trend and volume levels.
If I see its volume hit the DU level by 11 over the next few days, and the price is up, then thats a sign its about to start an uptrend and I should buy it?
Do you guys agree that IAAC looks very promising? ...or do you see something else that looks more promising than IAAC and why? ...or is this completely the wrong way to be looking at things?
Anyways, in my opinion, IAAC seems like the best candidate of the stocks spydertrader listed in DU from a week ago to start an uptrend soon. My reasoning is based on its overall current price trend and volume levels.
If I see its volume hit the DU level by 11 over the next few days, and the price is up, then thats a sign its about to start an uptrend and I should buy it?
Do you guys agree that IAAC looks very promising? ...or do you see something else that looks more promising than IAAC and why? ...or is this completely the wrong way to be looking at things?
Virgin, have some comments on the RIMM chart. Of course this is some hindsight but maybe it will be helpful.
1. I see a strong volume dry up going into the end of April/beginning of MAY after the big drop off of earnings. Not a perfect sideways move but the volume does flatten out with price ranging between $130/$135. Reading this I would look for the next volume move and direction for the breakout to trade.
2. Volume starts to form a valley and then picks up on April 25 and May 4. Notice the pullback off of the April 25 th spike up stops at the 20 EMA and them pulls back on NO volume. Volume bars start ticking higher as price moves back to the 20 EMA and then breaks out on strong volume. I would see that as a buy signal for a few reasons:
a. Volume comes back green and price moves higher
b. Price breaks above 20 EMA
c. If you follow candles we had two inside days before the breakout which means further consolidation and tightening of price and volume before a breakout which would hold once the price moves in one direction
So I think that the May 4th close at $138 is a bullish sign and it ran to $155. that would be a POint 1 for me, and Point 2 would be last long green candle that made a new high and I would look for potential point 3 to form if volume shows it to be so.
Just my armchair QB 20/20 hindsight analysis...
1. I see a strong volume dry up going into the end of April/beginning of MAY after the big drop off of earnings. Not a perfect sideways move but the volume does flatten out with price ranging between $130/$135. Reading this I would look for the next volume move and direction for the breakout to trade.
2. Volume starts to form a valley and then picks up on April 25 and May 4. Notice the pullback off of the April 25 th spike up stops at the 20 EMA and them pulls back on NO volume. Volume bars start ticking higher as price moves back to the 20 EMA and then breaks out on strong volume. I would see that as a buy signal for a few reasons:
a. Volume comes back green and price moves higher
b. Price breaks above 20 EMA
c. If you follow candles we had two inside days before the breakout which means further consolidation and tightening of price and volume before a breakout which would hold once the price moves in one direction
So I think that the May 4th close at $138 is a bullish sign and it ran to $155. that would be a POint 1 for me, and Point 2 would be last long green candle that made a new high and I would look for potential point 3 to form if volume shows it to be so.
Just my armchair QB 20/20 hindsight analysis...
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1467496>
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1468574>
I'm busy reading and studying all the material but if you would help me here with that statement with respect to JADE.
When you posted it the day before it had successfully completed a several day traverse from the right trend line to the left - and more - it gave us a volatility expansion on that left side.
Are you saying that the 15th was a FTT? (Which I would not yet understand. Not because I don't agree but I have more to learn I suppose and I don't know about FTT's being able to occur the very next bar after a bar that completed a traverse.)
Or are you saying we should now be on the look out for FTT's more than usual from that volatility expansion date? So that the 15th might not be but any day could be from that volatility expansion date.
Secondly ...
If it's the second then we do in this instance combine the information that we also know that earnings are due before the market open on the 17th and so one would generally want to be out of this position before that date if they are in it - or avoid entering it until it passes. The near term earnings event takes precedence on our decision making until it passes. Correct?
I ask these to help with my understanding. I will continue to read and learn but I'm hoping I might get insight on these things now while they are topical.
Thank you,
- David I
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