Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III

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I show :

IAAC MED NVEC SIRF in DU3 scan

I would imagine not very many WOULD be in DU after all the heavy selling volume the last few days.

No Brunos via Wealthlab

FYI -My Final Universe is as follows :

BITS COGO DTLK FTEK GMKT GROW GRRF IAAC ININ LQDT MED NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE SIM SIRF SNCR SPAR SYX UCTT

Initial Universe is :

ABM ACLI AEIS AGP ARD BGC BKI BLUD BRKR BW CBT CHAP CHIC CHTT CMP CNS CROX CRVL DAKT DTPI FTEK GEO GIGM GMR GROW HITT HIW HRZ IFS ILMN KNOT MTRX NTY NVTL OMG PHLY PNCL PRXI PRXL SKX SPAR SWHC SYX TG TRAK TTEC TZOO UA UCTT UHCO VDSI VOL VSEA ZOLL

And if you include 25 % institutional and insider you thin the above down to :

BRKR CNS CRVL GMR HITT TTEC TZOO VDSI VOL

So I run 3 quote sheets :
Final Universe - 21 stocks listed above
Initial Universe - 54 stocks listed above plus recent deletions from the FU - ALY DXPE GIGM HWCC PRXI REDF STEC
Hotlist - stocks in DU, Bruno, and others of interest - usually not more than 15 or so..

That's all there is to it

:D :D
 
Quote from Haroki:

Oops - chart
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Here is my chart of GROW. I would be looking for a pt3. Let me know what you think.

- Monkman

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1386379>
 

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Bought SPAR today. Went into FRV, positive MACD, stoh above 80. Yesterday it looks like it had a channel extension with a FTT (anyone care to comment). After todays action it appears that it might be headed to pt3 which would be RTL. Let me know what you think.

- Monkman

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1386384>
 

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Thanks Haroki. You're right, IAAC MED NVEC and SIRF all show as in dry up. Of those stocks only NVEC appears to be in an uptrend.

NVEC, however, has only 4.63 million shares outstanding, with 36% of the float shorted. Does it still qualify as a tradable candidate under the Jack Hershey methodology?

MED also has high short interest, about 17% of the float shorted.

IAAC is interesting. Of the four stocks in dry up, it has the lowest ratio of volume for the last close to its average volume over the past three months. The ratio is less than 20%. Does that mean it's likely the stock will continue it's downtrend? The chart for IAAC does not look good at all, unless you're looking for potential shorts.
 
Quote from Monkman:

Bought SPAR today. Went into FRV, positive MACD, stoh above 80. Yesterday it looks like it had a channel extension with a FTT (anyone care to comment). After todays action it appears that it might be headed to pt3 which would be RTL. Let me know what you think.

- Monkman
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Not sure what you mean by forming a pt 3....

If it were to form a pt 3 it would confirm a down channel. To look for a long entry, you would need the current dom channel to first FTT and then a BO to the upside, which it's beginning to do.

I drew a 30 min, and it confirms your entry.
 

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Quote from Monkman:

Bought SPAR today. Went into FRV, positive MACD, stoh above 80. Yesterday it looks like it had a channel extension with a FTT (anyone care to comment). After todays action it appears that it might be headed to pt3 which would be RTL. Let me know what you think.

- Monkman

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1386384>
More...

Hey Monkman, I'm currently trying to assess the charts in the FU using only Price, Volume, and Channels, so based on that ill try to give you my thoughts on it for tomorrow. Im not 100% on all of this so take it for what its worth, hopefully im on the right track.

I see SPAR as a possible short and a possible long for tomorrow. But in most cases ill probably not do anything tomorrow with it as you will see below.

If we look back 5 bars from the right there are three green bars with decreasing volume hitting the RTL. This is what we would expect in the non-dominant traverse. Price then falls on increasing volume (what we would expect in the dominant traverse) and expands the channel with a volatility expansion. Today price increased but on lower volume. This is doing what we expect as price moves towards the RTL again. Tomorrow, based on the gaussians, we would expect lower volume as price moves towards the RTL again. However, if u were looking to short SPAR on this retrace we would be anticipating an increase in volume with price falling, thus increasing the pace of the channel.

In order to enter long i would be looking for the volume to increase with increasing price, but would pay close attention to the RTL as price approaches it.

Of the three possible outcomes stated above:
(1) price increases on lower volume towards the RTL
(2) price drops on increasing volume for a possible short
(3) price increases on increasing volume for a long
I believe the outcome that the gaussian formations point to is number (1). Again, this is only anticipation, and we can react in what ever way necessary when the market shows us which way price moves. The only problem is with the way the market has been acting. With the recent selloff prices are all over the place, so this assessment may be better suited for when the market is back to normal.

I hope what I have written makes sense and follows the ideas behind using volume gaussians to lead price.
 
Quote from Retief:

Thanks Haroki. You're right, IAAC MED NVEC and SIRF all show as in dry up. Of those stocks only NVEC appears to be in an uptrend.

NVEC, however, has only 4.63 million shares outstanding, with 36% of the float shorted. Does it still qualify as a tradable candidate under the Jack Hershey methodology?

MED also has high short interest, about 17% of the float shorted.

IAAC is interesting. Of the four stocks in dry up, it has the lowest ratio of volume for the last close to its average volume over the past three months. The ratio is less than 20%. Does that mean it's likely the stock will continue it's downtrend? The chart for IAAC does not look good at all, unless you're looking for potential shorts.
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NVEC still qualifies - at one time it had more than 5 mil float, so it got in, and it still has rank, so it stays in.

MED - ya got me...

IAAC - fundamentals look horrible - last Q EPS rank (%change last Q) is 3, previous Q was 6, yearly EPS rank is 7, and RS for the year is 94, PE ratio is 211. What's that spell.......

Again, to be honest, I'm still VERY leery of buying long right now, and will only buy on a short time frame.
 
Spyder-
Would you mind posting your current final universe?

Also, are you currently using stocktables.com or only the eoddata.com procedure you described earlier?

Last, have you noticed any difference in performance with the method from stocks that come from the eoddata.com procedure but don't rank high enough in the stocktables.com sort?

Thanks!
 
Quote from TimDog:

Hey Monkman, I'm currently trying to assess the charts in the FU using only Price, Volume, and Channels, so based on that ill try to give you my thoughts on it for tomorrow. Im not 100% on all of this so take it for what its worth, hopefully im on the right track.

I see SPAR as a possible short and a possible long for tomorrow. But in most cases ill probably not do anything tomorrow with it as you will see below.

If we look back 5 bars from the right there are three green bars with decreasing volume hitting the RTL. This is what we would expect in the non-dominant traverse. Price then falls on increasing volume (what we would expect in the dominant traverse) and expands the channel with a volatility expansion. Today price increased but on lower volume. This is doing what we expect as price moves towards the RTL again. Tomorrow, based on the gaussians, we would expect lower volume as price moves towards the RTL again. However, if u were looking to short SPAR on this retrace we would be anticipating an increase in volume with price falling, thus increasing the pace of the channel.

In order to enter long i would be looking for the volume to increase with increasing price, but would pay close attention to the RTL as price approaches it.

Of the three possible outcomes stated above:
(1) price increases on lower volume towards the RTL
(2) price drops on increasing volume for a possible short
(3) price increases on increasing volume for a long
I believe the outcome that the gaussian formations point to is number (1). Again, this is only anticipation, and we can react in what ever way necessary when the market shows us which way price moves. The only problem is with the way the market has been acting. With the recent selloff prices are all over the place, so this assessment may be better suited for when the market is back to normal.

I hope what I have written makes sense and follows the ideas behind using volume gaussians to lead price.
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Wow, Tim brings up several excellent points.

Bad thing about right now is that the last several days had such big down volume that it muddies the water re: wanting increasing price with inc volume. Price may be increasing on hi vol but still be below yesterdays down volume.

THAT'S why I'm very leery and will only trade on a shorter time frame for right now until some normalcy returns..

FWIW...
 
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