Argh! Let me clarify one more time. I'm not saying that my method increased the return. I'm saying that loading up on the above three is alone responsible for the increased return. The method that brought the stocks to me was the Hershey method only. Loading up on the three was my discretion.
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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By any objective measure you appear to be having tremendous success - it's very inspiring.
There is a sweet spot between manically compounding returns (and costs) and having a life outside of your investments. It is up to each of us to find that spot and this method is ideally suited.
One thing to bear in mind is the time you are at risk. The beauty of this method, as I have come to understand it, is the entries can be adjusted to your risk appetite and with these repeatable, cyclical stocks there are, apparently, low risk periods where you can get in late and still reliably make your 5-10%. Switching between the stocks when done correctly actually reduces your risk. On the other hand holding for longer periods may work out but leaves you more exposed to the macro and the vagaries of dry up periods. (I admit I am suffering from a bearish outlook right now.) This method not only reduces risk (caveats as above) but takes into account the opportunity cost of your capital i.e. switching to where the returns are likely to be higher. Of course it takes a disciplined methodical approach, which for whatever reason is beyond most people.
Good w/e all.
Quick easy question.
I am studying the Volume Guassians.
Currently my charting software gives me a red volume bar if the price closes below the open of the bar itself.
But I know that another method is to give a red volume bar if the price closes below the close of the day before.
Which method should I be using to best intrepret the Volume Gaussians that have been often referred to in this journal?
Thanks!
I am studying the Volume Guassians.
Currently my charting software gives me a red volume bar if the price closes below the open of the bar itself.
But I know that another method is to give a red volume bar if the price closes below the close of the day before.
Which method should I be using to best intrepret the Volume Gaussians that have been often referred to in this journal?
Thanks!
I have always referred to Gaussian Volume formations in the context of how Qcharts colors its Volume and Price bars. I'm sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I think Qcharts colors its bars based on the current bar open and close, and not the close of the previous bar.
- Spydertrader
Attached is a daily chart of GIGM. On Thursday the stock was in dry up, and on Friday it went into FRV and ended the day at .72
What we would like to see now is for volume to increase followed by price. What we are hoping is that a B2R or B2B formation will start to develop. At that point we are looking for price to break above the blue LTL, and hold above, till it eventually hits the upper most turquoise LTL. Another scenario I foresee is price riding the blue tape up slowly and then making a b/o. And then of course it could spill its guts and break through both RTL which at that point we wave goodbye, and move on to bigger and better things.
If you have any comments of suggestions please post.
- Monkman
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1364404">
What we would like to see now is for volume to increase followed by price. What we are hoping is that a B2R or B2B formation will start to develop. At that point we are looking for price to break above the blue LTL, and hold above, till it eventually hits the upper most turquoise LTL. Another scenario I foresee is price riding the blue tape up slowly and then making a b/o. And then of course it could spill its guts and break through both RTL which at that point we wave goodbye, and move on to bigger and better things.
If you have any comments of suggestions please post.
- Monkman
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1364404">
Per PM message, I'm sharing the links I mentioned in my earlier post regarding if I had to only take two things from everything written about the Hershey method.
Spydertrader's concluding methodolgy post found here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=38777&perpage=6&pagenumber=343
Spydertrader's observations on MACD found here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83605&perpage=6&pagenumber=13
Please note, that I think the above has been talked to death so being able to understand and follow item 1, is an indication of whether the method will suit your mindset, i.e. review the first link to see if you even want to pursue this further. After a bit of time has passed, review item 2. In my opinion, item 1 coupled with item 2 is all you need for a powerful beginning method. From there, if you want to explore things further, then start looking into the intermediate and advanced aspects.
Spydertrader's concluding methodolgy post found here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=38777&perpage=6&pagenumber=343
Spydertrader's observations on MACD found here:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83605&perpage=6&pagenumber=13
Please note, that I think the above has been talked to death so being able to understand and follow item 1, is an indication of whether the method will suit your mindset, i.e. review the first link to see if you even want to pursue this further. After a bit of time has passed, review item 2. In my opinion, item 1 coupled with item 2 is all you need for a powerful beginning method. From there, if you want to explore things further, then start looking into the intermediate and advanced aspects.
Review for the coming week:
My current Final Universe based on my reading here is:
ALY BITS CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GIGM GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MEH MIKR NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE REDF SIM SIRF SNCR STEC SYX UCTT XING
My DU3 scan, of the above Final Universe only, produced these stocks for tomorrow, Monday, 19 February 2007:
CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GROW MIKR NVEC OMRI RATE
I regard the above DU3 as a little on the high side in terms of the number of symbols. Would someone list their official DU3 for Monday, please?
After my own personal culling process I have these stocks only on my daily watchlist for Monday:
FTEK DTLK DXPE RATE
The above 4 were selected based on a combination of factors listed here:
Appearance of daily chart.
Placement in the channel.
Candlestick bar over the last few days.
MACD.
Looking at the 5 min, I would only take:
FTEK and RATE
If I had to take only 1, I can't decide. They both look good. I plan on buying a lot of both assuming they fire on the Hershey buy criteria.
Thoughts, comments?
Plan_B stocks:
ALY has a really good-looking daily chart indicating a possible setup for an upside breakout. It is a Bruno play.
My current Final Universe based on my reading here is:
ALY BITS CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GIGM GROW GRRF HWCC IAAC ININ LQDT MEH MIKR NVEC OMRI PCCC RATE REDF SIM SIRF SNCR STEC SYX UCTT XING
My DU3 scan, of the above Final Universe only, produced these stocks for tomorrow, Monday, 19 February 2007:
CHDX COGO DTLK DXPE FTEK GROW MIKR NVEC OMRI RATE
I regard the above DU3 as a little on the high side in terms of the number of symbols. Would someone list their official DU3 for Monday, please?
After my own personal culling process I have these stocks only on my daily watchlist for Monday:
FTEK DTLK DXPE RATE
The above 4 were selected based on a combination of factors listed here:
Appearance of daily chart.
Placement in the channel.
Candlestick bar over the last few days.
MACD.
Looking at the 5 min, I would only take:
FTEK and RATE
If I had to take only 1, I can't decide. They both look good. I plan on buying a lot of both assuming they fire on the Hershey buy criteria.
Thoughts, comments?
Plan_B stocks:
ALY has a really good-looking daily chart indicating a possible setup for an upside breakout. It is a Bruno play.
Oh man. Finally someone is speaking English over here in J Hershey land! occasionally i drop by to see what's up and finally i can help.
re: GIGM. This has been a stonedinvesting fave for quite some time- my wife's entire IRA is sitting in it ( she has a small IRA)
The stock is sitting in a sweet spot both the technical picture and the fundamental... very much a $20 stock LT I think, although I will be stepping off @ $16 ST.
~stoney
re: GIGM. This has been a stonedinvesting fave for quite some time- my wife's entire IRA is sitting in it ( she has a small IRA)
The stock is sitting in a sweet spot both the technical picture and the fundamental... very much a $20 stock LT I think, although I will be stepping off @ $16 ST.
~stoney
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