Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III

[tr222]

Quote from bdolnik:

Ok here is a question about exit strategy if I may.

Im still very new so take this for what its worth. This is just my interpretation of the daily chart.

Yesterdays candle created a point 3 of the ST up channel, price confirmed this when it moved higher today on strong volume, so thats a good sign (to me anyways). Also, stochastics (14,1,3) is pointed up and is currently above the 80 line. According to the intermediate hold rules you would hold until stoch (14,1,3,) dips below the 80, but you could exit before that for other reasons if necessary. My MACD is also still diverging up so thats good as well. With todays high, the price is about 13.5% into its next 20% run. Making the 20% run would bring it up to $11.02, which is almost right at the top of my IT channel.

I am by no means an expert and much a beginner, so please dont take my interpretations as fact, im just trying to learn as well. This stock could very well turn around and head back south.

P.S. I got a signal yesterday for this too but avoided it b/c of the bulk trades at the open and around the 10:26 signal time. But nice job staying in it.

 

[bdolnik]

Thanks TimDog, that's exactly what I was looking for... points to consider and research, as I'm very new to this.

It's only a paper trade so don't worry if it takes a dive

 

[TCRhodes]

I also picked up GIGM yesterday morning at 10:35 at $10.10 as price was taking off, it was hitting pro rata FRV and the MACD and STOCH gave buy signals. Midday, it reversed directions and headed south. As I was down more than 2% at the end of the first day (Ross's Rule) of a position, I exited about 30 minutes before the market closed at $9.79.

I didn't feel very good when I saw it shoot up at the open this morning.

<sigh>

Waiting for the next bus...

 

[OpenTrader]

According to my channels GIGM hit the left side of a longer term channel today, as well as it's shorter term channel. Look at my chart. Longer term lines are in blue. Maybe this will help you make a decision. Does it have enough gas to break through?

 

[tr222]

Anyone short GROW today, wish I had. If it stays in the down channel(now that it broke the up IT channel) it could keep falling far.

 

[OpenTrader]

Bummer. I had GROW as a potential short today, but there where no shares available to short from MB trading.

 

[thenewguy]

Quote from thenewguy:

Here is my take on each of these stocks with regards to channels and FTT's. I hope someone finds the comments useful, and I certainly would appreciate all comments on this. I still remain an eager beginner to this method.

BITS - seems to me to be in CCC still. Hitting DU with price improvement would probably signal a BO of the channel. I think if I had drawn the channel prior to that I would have found that I started the RTL of this channel in the wrong spot, and we just had a BO/FBO. However, neither matters because it's in a spot where DU/FRV and price improvement would signal that it's on it's way to creating a point 2, to me anyway.

As I work my way through the learning process, I like to reflect on prior analysis to see where I can improve. A week ago I posted a series of charts with a brief description. This analysis was made using only my current understanding of FTT's (very incomplete, I'm sure) and the current methods for the Hershey Equities system.

Hopefully to spur a discussion on this, I will post the same charts from today, one week after I originally posted them. Note, I have not modified the channels at all. In looking back, I was quite, quite surprised.

Here is the first chart (BITS). If you compare it to the one I posted a week ago, you'll notice that it did signal, according to our rules a day or two after I posted it, and it did break out of the channel. It also looks like a P2 of the new upwards channel may have formed.

 

[thenewguy]

Quote from thenewguy:

CTRN - The increase in volume looks like it could be creating an FTT. The beautiful thing about this is that following the Hershey Stock criteria, if it were to signal properly tomorrow it would create a perfect FTT as I understand it. If it doesn't signal then we know it's not an FTT because the volume does not support it. I think.

CTRN was pretty much to the day, and never looked back. I don't remember if this one signalled or not, but I think it might have.

 

[thenewguy]

Quote from thenewguy:

DTLK - Again, looking back I think I have drawn my down channel incorrectly. It doesn't matter in the end (because I wasn't watching this stock at the time) but if I had drawn it correctly, I would have seen that FTT in time to act on it. At this point we are beyond that channel and at the LTL of the current channel. This makes me wary, as a signal tomorrow would simply be a volatility expansion of the current channel, and I don't have a frame of reference for where that could end.


DTLK's chart

Although I wasn't sure how to handle this one, it's amazing to see how the price followed the channel almost perfectly.

Also, the dates on the last two charts should read the same as this one (1_17_07) not 1_12_07 like they do, sorry for the confusion.

 

[thenewguy]

Quote from thenewguy:

GIGM - GIGM to me, is beautiful. A signal (again, FRV + price improvment) tomorrow would confirm the point 3 and I'd feel comfortable riding this all the way back up to the LTL, or FTT, whichever comes first. The volume on this one really stands out.

Again, GIGM's price perfectly obeyed the channels. This one to me was quite remarkable.