Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Trading Journal III

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Quote from Huskydog:

Sold half of the DXPE at 33.27. I don't like how light the volume is on the way up in this, especially with the S and P futures selling off.

I have been daytrading for over 6 years, and I may have an issue watching my JH swing trades too closely. Time will tell on this one.

All commentary is appreciated.

- Huskydog
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I have this problem as well. I was in and out of NVEC twice yesterday for washes because of my interpretation of the 5 min chart PVAD. Had a little talk with myself as a reminder that the Hershey Method is about DAILY time frame cycles.

Today's rule for me was: EOD and 30 min fractal charts only. I have not pulled up a 5 min.

Bot GIGM @ $9.98 as it barely hit 50% of Low Band DU just before 10:30. Doesn't look like it's on its way to FRV and price has fallen since my entry. Stop is at $9.80 for today.
 
Quote from Huskydog:

.. and I am still working on getting my hands around the FTT concept. ..

I appreciate your input.

:p

- Huskydog
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the future journal is all about FTT, even if you are not familiar with future just pretend it is SPY share chart and you are all set to follow along.
 
Quote from Huskydog:

This will probably an issue for me at times. I have only read up to August of Journal II, and I am still working on getting my hands around the FTT concept. When I see the stock going up on light volume, my instincts tell me to be wary. Obviously, I need to finish the second journal to be more comfortable with some of the more advanced concepts.

I appreciate your input.

:p

- Huskydog
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I am very much still learning about FTT's as well. Here are my thoughts on DXPE, and why I exited when I did. Maybe someone else more experienced can share their thoughts as well.

On the daily it looks like it has recently created an FTT and crossed the RTL of the down channel. This leads me to believe that a P1 has been created (the FTT) and we are looking for a P2 for the new, upwards channel. This combined with the fact that DXPE signalled this morning for me kept me in this trade all day.

On the 30 min there are two chanels in effect. Both up, one inside the other. On the inside (smaller channel) right at the end of the day I saw what I thought was (is?) and FTT. Notice the volume at p1 and p3 of the bigger channel? The first black volume bar at then where I percieve an FTT made me take notice. As soon as I saw that, and saw that the price wasn't going to hit the LTL of the smaller channel I got ready to get out of the trade. The small spike just before that didn't have enough volume for me to consider it an FTT, but it did have me a bit worried. Additionally, about the time I started to see what I thought was an FTT I realized that DXPE was not going to make FRV for today. Also, I had a decent gain and wanted some beer money for the weekend.... :D

Thanks,

TNG
 

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My summary for the end of the day:

-- Sold 500 BITS in my work account at 9.28, due to overmanaging the position (This is precisely why I opened my swing trading account outside of work. I don't want to sell good postions for the wrong reasons.) I did feel I was a little heavy in the stock, so I exited a small piece of my total position. Most likely a mistake, but I'm still learning here. :p

-- Sold 200 DXPE at 33.27 and sold the other 200 at 33.45 at EOD. The first sell was due to micromanaging the position. This is most likely due to the fact that I haven't finished reading up and internalizing the necessary material to trade the more advanced JH methods. It's tough to stick to the game plan when you haven't read all the details of the gameplan. I was planning on holding the other 200 shares if volume continued to increase over yesterday's total, which it did. However, there is a resistance level around the $34 price level. I see that thenewguy has identified as a potential FTT on the 30 min fractal after the end of the day. When the stock retreated from the resistance level down to 33.50 area, I sold. FRV was not met, and I don't have the addtional tools in the toolbox to justify holding the position for additional days.

-- I am still holding 500 BITS in my work account and 1600 BITS in my swingtrading account. Price has continued to increase, and volume decreased as the stock settled into a range. According to my trading plan, I have 2 more days to hold unless PV is met, I achieve a 10% return, or I am stopped out. Please see the attached chart.

As always, commentary is welcome.

- Huskydog
 

Attachments

Based off of the 30 min chart only, I exited my positions in:

COGO SWFT NVEC CTRN HWCC

Looking at the wealth lab daily chart on Saturday morning, 13 Jan 2007, I regret selling (most to least regret):

CTRN HWCC SWFT

Looking at the daily chart the above 3 look like they have a lot more to go.

I bought new:

XING SIM

I added to:

GIGM BITS DXPE

The above 3 have been my best performers and my decision to add to them appears justified, i.e. BITS up 1.4%, DXPE up 2.8 % today.

Outside of the method:

I keep a screen of most active up via IB, and I'll occasionally look at it as I would like to see how the list corressponds with the stocks we watch, as well as to keep an eye on up and comers.

GLW caught my eye today. Take a look at the daily chart as well as the 30 minute chart.
 
We have followed SWFT for a number of days. During that time, Price has continued to follow the trend lines we put in place on this day - 8 days ago. In addition, we witnessed how a trader could have 'daytraded' this stock on two separate occasions in order to make a quick buck. Now, we see Price has approached the limit of our non-dominant traverse (of the down trend). How did we know in advance the market had changed? How did we gauge the change in sentiment which occurred? Why did we choose to hold this long? One can easily locate the answers to these questions (and so many more) by following the FTT (Failure to Traverse) using Price Bars and the Gaussian Patterns evident in the Volume Bars.

By following along each night when I posted an updated chart of SWFT, you witnessed in real time what so many have referred to as:

Tomorrow's Newspaper, Today

Over the next several months, we will continue to focus more and more of this Journal on locating these FTT's along with their Gaussian Volume signals in an effort to greatly improve profitability. Until then, continue to annotate the charts and notice how volume operates at, near and around an FTT. With respect to SWFT, begin to anticipate what must come next for 1. Price to Break Out (BO) of this down channel, or 2. Price to turn and head south.

Good Trading to you all.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1325190>
 

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Quote from Huskydog:

This will probably an issue for me at times. I have only read up to August of Journal II, and I am still working on getting my hands around the FTT concept.
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You are only 2 months behind where we introduce the FTT into Journal II. No need to rush to catch up. Take your time.

- Spydertrader
 
SIRF

This one hasn't come up on a daily watchlist for a while, but I look at the chart of every universe member to keep abreast of developments.

Pull up a daily chart of SIRF and plot MACD and RSI in two separate sub windows.

Nice and predictable isn't it? The last time you had a long opportunity like this was back in October 2006. We went from rougly 21 to 31 and change. We started this most recent move at roughly 25.
 
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