Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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2005-05-18, Wednesday - Update

This morning I monitored one list of stocks (4 total equities): Those equities from our daily Hot List and from our Final Universe List finding themselves "In Dry Up."

Dry Up Stocks

BCSI EXM SYNA UBET

Our system generated two possible trade signals from the list of five Dry Up Stocks when actual volume exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume prior to 11:30 AM.

Dry Up Stocks Triggering Signal

EXM SYNA

Dry Up Stocks NOT Triggering Signal

BCSI UBET

Of the two signals generated:

EXM did show price improvement and met all criteria at time of signal generation.

Time: 10:33 AM
Price: $15.70
MACD: +.0176
Stoch: 98.0392
Score: 5
FRV: 626,640 shares

As a result, I entered into a long position with respect to EXM purchasing 1000 shares @ $15.70 USD.

05/18/05 10:33:39 15.70 15.66 15.70 1000

Unfortunately, it appears that I have experienced some data issues this morning and it now appears as if EXM did NOT actually find itself in Dry Up. As a result, I may have to bite the bullet and eat a loss on this trade.

In addition, SYNA showed price improvement at time of signal generation (11:05 AM) and met all criteria at time of signal generation.

Time: 11:05 AM
Price: $19.75
MACD: +.0551
Stoch: 92.2927
Score: 5
FRV: 693,415 shares

However, as a result of current data issues, I did NOT take any action with respect to SYNA due to my inability to confirm the actual signal.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-05-18, Wednesday - EXM Update

05/18/05 12:51:33 15.70 15.70 15.71 1000

I have exited EXM for a wash trade. I'll be happy to eat the commissions on this one after making such a foolish error.

Lesson learned. Always double check the data.

- Spydertrader
 
Thanks for the clarification on EXM. I was left wondering if you were using a dry up calculation different from the one in the Wealthlab chartscript.

Having gone over some of Mr. Hershey's threads on the subject that were alluded to, it is quite obvious that Spydertrader, you have a much much more coherent explanation of the method contained in this journal. Given the large sprawling mass this thread has become though it still does get confusing at times.

I've read some earlier posts and you refer to possibly ten different variations on the calculation of dry up volume. I just wish to clarify if the high band and low band dry up you referred to previously plays a role anymore in your application of the method in this journal or have you abandoned them and are sticking solely to the Wealthlab script? I was lost for a bit when you kept including MCRI for a while last week because it doesn't seem to be in dry up going by the chartscript.
 
Quote from Capablanca:

I just wish to clarify if the high band and low band dry up you referred to previously plays a role anymore in your application of the method in this journal or have you abandoned them and are sticking solely to the Wealthlab script?
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Thank-you for posting your observations concerning our Journal. I appreciate the input. Due to the input of many individuals who have selflessly shared their efforts, we have made slight changes to the methodology over the last 7 months. This collaborative iterative refinement process, as I like to call it, has resulted in a more streamlined and time saving approach to the culling process, as well as, clearly defined entree and exit criteria.

Beginning last September until very recently, I tracked several different formula with respect to varying methods of Dry Up Volume calculation. While I anticipated one method would prove superior to all other methods in terms of correctly identifying breakout candidates, the results did not prove the hypothesis. No one method proved superior to another from a statistical significant standpoint. I no longer track these methods on a daily basis.

Recently, I proposed a a theory of Dry Up which calculated Dry Up Volume as a Range of Numbers, rather than, and absolute number. What I sometimes refer to as "Dry Up Volume Range" uses High Band and Low Band Dry Up Volume in order to capture three standard deviations of data points. I felt using "Dry Up Volume Range" brought us closer to the spirit of jack Hershey's teachings. As you may recall, Jack calculates Dry Up Volume by "eyeballing bulked charts at clearstation.com" - a skill I have yet to be able to master.

An equity with an actual volume less than calculated High Band Dry Up VOlume is said to be "In Dry Up." On the next morning, we look for a trade signal to appear when actual volume exceeds calculated Low Band Dry Up Volume prior to 11:30 AM for these equities finding themselves "In Dry Up" on the night before.

The latest version of The Hershey Chartscript located at the following URL:

http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/editsystem?id=38086

uses this very same methodology.

Lastly, I no longer separate the stocktables.com initial sort into three distinct lists. I use the entire downloaded list (after culling for EPS, Float & Average Daily Volume parameters) and send it directly to the Wealth-Lab Chartscript (or Wealth-Lab Developer). At one time, I termed eliminating the creation of three lists the "Test Culling Method." I moved to this method after determining that culling into three lists often eliminated opportunities to add certain stocks to our final universe list. We eliminated these stocks simply because we stopped counting when we reached ten stocks in each list. In addition, Jack used these three lists as a clever way of simulating 'Score' for each equity. We now have an automated Scoring process. For these two reasons, I felt culling into three lists no longer served our best interests.

Thanks again for your input, and I hope you find the above information helpful.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-05-18, Wednesday - JUPM Update

Although actual volume on JUPM failed to exceed calculated Peak Volume by EOD, I exited the JUPM trade at the $19.02 price point based on our four day time stop. Our four day trade yielded a per share profit of $2.45 USD for a gain of 14.7%. Based on our position of 1000 shares, we net $2450 USD.

05/18/05 15:53:24 19.02 19.02 19.05 1000

- Spydertrader
 
2005-05-19, Thursday - Lists

Hershey Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology
Hershey Chartscript Scans / Qcharts Culling / Stocktables.com Sort

Hot List

DCAI ELOS FORD MCRI MFLX PARL USG

Dry Up Stocks

MCRI SYNA

Hot List Stocks Scores

DCAI - 5
ELOS - 0
FORD - 0
MCRI - 5
MFLX - 7
PARL - 7
USG - 0

Dry Up Stocks Scores

MCRI - 5
SYNA - 7

Keep an Eye on These Stocks

MCRI (Attached)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=751376>
 

Attachments

Quote from Spydertrader:

Dry Up Stocks

MCRI SYNA
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Spydertrader,

Can you post your volume and upper band numbers for MCRI and SYNA? I am not getting them in dry up using Yahoo data, which I verified with ETrade data:

MCRI
UBand: 79,199
Volume: 148,126

SYNA
UBand: 733,249
Volume: 828,902

Any input?

Thanks,
smtrader
 
Quote from smtrader:

Can you post your volume and upper band numbers for MCRI and SYNA? I am not getting them in dry up using Yahoo data, which I verified with ETrade data:
More...

I re-ran the symbols through the Wealth-Lab.com Web Site. I received the following:

Symbol: MCRI
Upper Band = 177,244
Average DU = 118,273
Lower Band = 59,302
FRV = 354,820
Peak = 709,639

Symbol: SYNA
Upper Band = 859,266
Average DU = 573,379
Lower Band = 287,492
FRV = 1,720,138
Peak = 3,440,275

I still have both stocks currently "In Dry Up."

- Spydertrader
 
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