Based on recent market conditions, we may want to monitor all stocks from the Daily Hot List created using the methods outlined above, and not just those stocks finding themselves "In Dry Up."
- Spydertrader
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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal
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Based on recent market conditions, we may want to monitor all stocks from the Daily Hot List created using the methods outlined above, and not just those stocks finding themselves "In Dry Up."
- Spydertrader
Quote from fventura:
Spydertrader could you explain why these market conditions warrant monitoring all stocks in the hot list and not just the ones in dry up? Thank you in advance.
My recommendation about monitoring the entire list of Hot List stocks referred only to the Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology I posted this morning. I apologize for not being more clear with my statement, and for any confusion resulting from my recommendation.
The correct calculation of Dry Up Volume continues to be the most elusive piece of The Jack Hershey Equities Method puzzle. With the recent downtrend in the market, our stocks have seen a price reduction on significant volume, and often experience a price increase on low volume. This could have the effect of skewing our Dry Up Volume calculations one direction or another, thus resulting in a potential for us to fail to monitor a stock poised for breakout. In addition, the numerous methods for calculating Dry Up Volume often find themselves in conflict over the determination of a particular equity and if that equity finds itself "In Dry Up" or not. This morning, DCAI provides an excellent example. The Hershey scans did not indicate DCAI as a "Dry Up Stock," yet the DU Cycle Method did. As a result, I recommended monitoring the entire Hot List created using these methods, and not just those stocks finding themselves "In Dry Up."
Again, I apologize for the confusion, and hope you find the above information helpful.
- Spydertrader
Quote from hpeganz:
Has someone tried Jake Hershey´s method on other stock markets like Germany, Japan or ...?
I have not personally tested Jack's Methods on any other markets besides the U.S. equities markets. However, if you used the same culling methodology (High RS & EPS, minimum of 5 cycles in six months, etc.) and adjusted for liquidity factors in a foreign exchange, I would anticipate similar results.
- Spydertrader
2005-04-25, Monday - Update
Our Default System (Three Lists of Sevens - Ones - Zeros) failed to generate any trade signals today. Actual volume failed to exceed calculated Dry Up Volume both on a 50% pro-rata basis and at the 11:30 AM timeframe. As a result, I took no action with respect to trading (long or short) any of our Watch List Stocks.
The following analysis of The Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology resulted in no actual trades - irrespective of actual signal generation. As indicated, this methodology still remains in the development and testing phase.
Of our four Hot List stocks finding themselves "In Dry Up" (EXM, EZPW, TOPT & TRGL), two (TOPT & EZPW) generated trade signals this morning.
At 10:23 AM, actual volume for TOPT exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume (169,000 shares). Price ($17.09, up .08 from previous day close), MACD (+.0863) and The Stochastic Indicator (82.7835) fell within desired parameters.
At 11:07 AM, actual volume for EZPW exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume (57,890 shares). However, we did not have Price Improvement ($13.25, down .21 from previous day close). While MACD (+.0018) returned a slightly positive level, The Stochastic Indicator (35.4233) fell outside desired parameters.
Although not technically "In Dry Up," another of this morning's Hot List Stocks (DCAI) may have triggered a signal this morning. I say, "may have triggered a signal" because DCAI, although in Today's Hotlist, did not find itself "In Dry Up" according to the methods used this morning, but did find itself "In Dry Up" using the Default Daily Methods. At 10:19 AM, actual volume on DCAI exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume (40,000 shares). Price ($13.90, up .68 from previous day close), MACD (+.1033) and The Stochastic Indicator (80.0044) all fell within desired parameters.
Again, no actual trades - irrespective of actual signal generation - occurred with the three equities discussed above.
I hope you find the above information helpful.
- Spydertrader
Our Default System (Three Lists of Sevens - Ones - Zeros) failed to generate any trade signals today. Actual volume failed to exceed calculated Dry Up Volume both on a 50% pro-rata basis and at the 11:30 AM timeframe. As a result, I took no action with respect to trading (long or short) any of our Watch List Stocks.
The following analysis of The Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology resulted in no actual trades - irrespective of actual signal generation. As indicated, this methodology still remains in the development and testing phase.
Of our four Hot List stocks finding themselves "In Dry Up" (EXM, EZPW, TOPT & TRGL), two (TOPT & EZPW) generated trade signals this morning.
At 10:23 AM, actual volume for TOPT exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume (169,000 shares). Price ($17.09, up .08 from previous day close), MACD (+.0863) and The Stochastic Indicator (82.7835) fell within desired parameters.
At 11:07 AM, actual volume for EZPW exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume (57,890 shares). However, we did not have Price Improvement ($13.25, down .21 from previous day close). While MACD (+.0018) returned a slightly positive level, The Stochastic Indicator (35.4233) fell outside desired parameters.
Although not technically "In Dry Up," another of this morning's Hot List Stocks (DCAI) may have triggered a signal this morning. I say, "may have triggered a signal" because DCAI, although in Today's Hotlist, did not find itself "In Dry Up" according to the methods used this morning, but did find itself "In Dry Up" using the Default Daily Methods. At 10:19 AM, actual volume on DCAI exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume (40,000 shares). Price ($13.90, up .68 from previous day close), MACD (+.1033) and The Stochastic Indicator (80.0044) all fell within desired parameters.
Again, no actual trades - irrespective of actual signal generation - occurred with the three equities discussed above.
I hope you find the above information helpful.
- Spydertrader
SpyderTrader said:
Running our 4 ranked equities, which also find themselves currently "In Dry Up" against The Hershey Equities Score Scan v.1.0.0 we see the following scores:
EXM - 0
EZPW - 5
TOPT - 0
TRGL - 0
We then monitor the above four equities in anticipation of receiving a trade signal.
SyderTrader,
I'm curious if the WL code 0 to 7 score effects your decision making. I know the spirit of the score is to locate the price and volume in a particular stage of the natural cycle. That would seem to mean to me that you wouldn't want to be trading a 5 as that would indicate the cycle was nearing a peak, rather than a 1,0 or a 7 which would indicate either approaching a trough or having just broken out from the bottom of a trough.
Do you currently use the WL score for anything more than a curiousity? Do you do your own sort of 'mental score' after checking the chart (sort of like Gallas2's 'Watch These')?
...did I miss something why you didn´t take this trade?Quote from Spydertrader:
At 10:23 AM, actual volume for TOPT exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume (169,000 shares). Price ($17.09, up .08 from previous day close), MACD (+.0863) and The Stochastic Indicator (82.7835) fell within desired parameters.[/B]
Best regards, Helmut
Quote from acesheet:
Do you currently use the WL score for anything more than a curiousity? Do you do your own sort of 'mental score' after checking the chart (sort of like Gallas2's 'Watch These')?
Ideally, we would only trade stocks as their score cycled from one to zero to seven. Unfortunately, a stock's score doesn't always provide an accurate clue to where price might head in the future. As a result, we can, and often do, see an equity 'breakout' when its score causes us to anticipate additional price degradation. Also, Jack once wrote about how we would occasionally see a "head fake" from a particular stock as it transitioned from a score of seven to six to five. Rather than continue downward, the stock in this particular example would move higher and resume a score of seven. Jack suggested this phenomenon occurred most frequently with stocks exhibiting a score of 5 or 6. As a result, I use 'score' to anticipate where I might see rapid price improvement, rather than, as a culling or elimination criteria such as average daily volume, rank or float.
Hope that helped.
- Spydertrader
Quote from hpeganz:
...did I miss something why you didn´t take this trade?
Best regards, Helmut
These signals resulted from the Methodology I posted this morning. It remains in the development and testing phase. I do plan to trade signals resulting from this methodology in the future.
- Spydertrader
2005-04-25, Tuesday - Lists
Hershey Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology
Hershey Chartscript Scans / Qcharts Culling / Stocktables.com Sort
Hot List
DCAI FORD GDP MCRI MFLX PARL SNDA TOPT TRGL USG XXIA
Dry Up Stocks
BCSI EXM GDP MFLX SIGM TRGL
Hot List Stock Scores
DCAI - 7
FORD - 5
GDP - 5
MCRI - 5
MFLX - 5
PARL - 0
SNDA - 4
TOPT - 7
TRGL - 4
USG - 0
XXIA - 7
Keep an Eye on These Stocks
GDP (Attached)
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=736446>
Hershey Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology
Hershey Chartscript Scans / Qcharts Culling / Stocktables.com Sort
Hot List
DCAI FORD GDP MCRI MFLX PARL SNDA TOPT TRGL USG XXIA
Dry Up Stocks
BCSI EXM GDP MFLX SIGM TRGL
Hot List Stock Scores
DCAI - 7
FORD - 5
GDP - 5
MCRI - 5
MFLX - 5
PARL - 0
SNDA - 4
TOPT - 7
TRGL - 4
USG - 0
XXIA - 7
Keep an Eye on These Stocks
GDP (Attached)
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=736446>
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