Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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2005-02-23, Wednesday - Lists

I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists

Stocktables.com
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
TIE - ANTP - POG
TOPT - ANGO - HOLX
XTO - VTIV - CCJ
BUCY - CTSH - MHR
STNR - EZPW - ISRG
WLK - IPS - MEE
MSB - SNDA - LSS
EXM - WCC - ELOS
NCX - TIBX - KEYW
MHR - WWCA - HLIT

Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual
Hotlist

ANTP
EXM
ANGO
KEYW
ELOS
TOPT
EZPW
SNDA

Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data
Watch List

GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
PACT - DU Cycle - DU5
ANTP - DU Cycle
CUTR - DU Cycle
TASR - DU Cycle
INTN - DU Cycle - DU5
ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5
BCSI - DU Cycle
EBKR - DU Cycle
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
HANS - DU Cycle
ULBI - DU Cycle
IDSA - DU Cycle

Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score)

GOAM - 2
NGPS - 2
SNDA - 2
TASR - 2

Eyeball
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks

SNDA (Attached)

Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations
Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero

HANS

Stocktables Sort/Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations/
Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist

EZPW 0
HANS 0
MDRX 1
ELOS 2
KEYW 2
MFLX 2
MIPS 2
MT 2
PMTI 2
SNDA 2
TRGL 3
TOPT 4
EXM 5

(GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA & HLIT have float outside normal parameters) - MT & TRGL now have float within our parameters.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=691892>
 

Attachments

A minor situation in the 'real' world prevents me from having an opportunity to post again until late Thursday evening. Until then, good trading to you all.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-25, Friday - Lists

I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists

Stocktables.com
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
JOYG - WWCA - CMC
CULS - ANTP - MT
MTEX - HLIT - EZPW
BUCY - UTHR - LSS
MUSA - ISRG - VPI
EXM - MHR - NCX
LCAV - WCC - MIPS
USNA - FLSH - CTSH
MEE - NSS - VTIV
CCJ - TOPT - WLL

Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual
Hotlist

ANTP
EXM
TOPT
EZPW
MIPS

Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data
Watch List

GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
PACT - DU Cycle - DU5
ANTP - DU Cycle
DCAI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
TASR - DU Cycle
ANGO - DU Cycle - DU5
NGPS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
KEYW - DU Cycle
ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
TRGL - DU Cycle
TOPT - DU Cycle
MFLX - DU Cycle
HURC - DU Cycle
SYNA - DU Cycle
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
SINA - DU Cycle - DU5
BLTI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
EBKR - DU Cycle
ULBI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
GMAI - DU Cycle

Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score)

GOAM - 6

Eyeball
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks

SINA (Attached)

Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations
Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero

DCAI
NGPS
GMAI
ULBI

Stocktables Sort/Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations/
Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist

MDRX 1
MFLX 1
EZPW 2
TRGL 2
MIPS 4
ELOS 5
KEYW 5
TOPT 5
EXM 7
HANS 7
MT 7
PMTI 7

(GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA & HLIT have float outside normal parameters) - MT & TRGL now have float within our parameters.

The following Stocks have been ADDED to the Final Universe List as of 2005-02-23: DCAI, SIGM & SGTL.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=693525>
 

Attachments

2005-02-25, Friday - Update

Our system only provided one signal today - SYNA. Actual volume on SYNA exceeded calculated 50% pro-rata almost immediately after the open. Both MACD (+.0522) and The Stochastic Indicator (81.0188) fell within desired parameters, and we had price improvement. Unfortunately we had a rather large gap up in price at the open. SYNA gapped up by 15%, and as we have seen many times in the past, stocks that gap by such a large percentage basis, often fail to perform as expected. Price at the time of signal generation held at $24.80. As a result of the large gap open on SYNA, I ignore the signal and take no action either long or short.

I continue to hold IPXL. After watching price drop below our purchase price, but remain above our stop price during the last two days, we see continued price and volume improvement on IPXL today. As a result of IPXL closing at Friday's high of the day, we continue to hold IPXL through the weekend.

One final note, volume on TRGL exceeded FRV levels by 3:45 PM Friday after not reaching any of the pro-rata levels of Dry Up by 11:30 AM. Price for TRGL fell .45 during the day closing at $24.30. I took no action with regards to this trade.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-28, Monday - Lists

I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists

Stocktables.com
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
JLG - WWCA - LCAV
MUSA - HLIT - MDRX
CULS - ANTP - XTO
TIE - ISRG - VPI
MT - VTIV - CTSH
LFL - TOPT - LSS
JOYG - MHR - PMTI
EXM - MIPS - HANS
MRVL - FLSH - EZPW
STLD - WCC

Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual
Hotlist

ANTP
EXM
TOPT
EZPW
MIPS
PMTI
HANS
STLD

Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data
Watch List

GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
PACT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ANTP - DU Cycle - DU5
TASR - DU Cycle
NGPS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
KEYW - DU Cycle - DU5
ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5
TOPT - DU Cycle
MFLX - DU Cycle
HURC - DU Cycle
SNDA - DU Cycle
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
SINA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
IDSA - DU Cycle
BLTI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
HLIT - DU Cycle - DU5
EBKR - DU Cycle
ULBI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
ISSC - DU Cycle

Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score)

HLIT - 1
NGPS - 7
SINA - 4

Eyeball
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks

DCAI (Attached)

Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations
Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero

PACT
TASR

Stocktables Sort/Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations/
Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist

EZPW 0
PMTI 0
KEYW 1
MDRX 2
TRGL 2
EXM 4
HANS 5
MIPS 5
TOPT 5
ELOS 7
MFLX 7
MT 7

(GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA & HLIT have float outside normal parameters) - MT & TRGL now have float within our parameters.

The following Stocks have been ADDED to the Final Universe List as of 2005-02-23: STLD.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=695294>
 

Attachments

2005-02-28, Monday - Update

Our system generated a signal this morning when actual volume of TOPT exceeded calculated 50% pro-rata volume using the DU Cycle method of Dry Up Calculation. We had price improvement ($21.25), and both MACD (+.1786) and The Stochastic Indicator (80.7442) fell within desired parameters. As a result, we enter into a long position with regard to TOPT.

02/28/05 09:54:34 21.30 21.25 21.30 1000

We set a Target Price of $23.43 (10%) and a Stop Price of $20.25 (5%) and plan to move our stop upward in parallel with any potential price improvement.

While continuing to monitor IPXL, I watched as MACD crossed into the negative (-.02812) in addition to the Stochastic Indicator dropping to the low of the morning (19.9969). As a result, I decided to sell all shares of IPXL.

02/28/05 10:17:07 17.38 17.38 17.40 1000

The sale of IPXL resulted in a gross profit of $30.00 which we consider a "wash trade" for the purposes of this journal. Although we could have chosen to hold onto this trade for a few more additional days. I feel it better to sell a stock that isn't performing as anticipated and look to place those funds into another equity with greater money velocity. Should the system trigger a signal tomorrow, we already have available funds to purchase the maximum shares in order to take advantage of a trade with increased money velocity.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-28, Monday - Update

While typing the above post, My volume alerts for PACT started to create significant amounts of noise. The volume alarms resulted when the following news item triggered a volume and price surge with PACT.

http://tinyurl.com/4twyh

As a result, 8 seconds before 11:00 AM, actual volume began to increase at a rapid pace exceeding calculated Dry Up Volume for DU5, DU10 & DU20 methods of Dry Up Volume calculation. Price at signal generation held at $6.79 per share - an improvement over the previous day. Both MACD (+.0221) and The Stochastic Indicator (98.7744) remained well above desired levels. As a result, I entered into a long position with PACT prior to completing the above post.

02/28/05 11:01:07 7.65 7.65 7.65 1000

Having never witnessed such a strong surge in both volume and price in such a short timeframe, I anticipated that the 'normal' target of 10% might not apply. Still, I set the Target Price at $8.41 with a stop limit of $$6.89. As I watched price exceeded the target price and continue to have strong volume, I moved up the stop price in parallel with improved price. At the high of $9.24, price had improved $1.59 per share over our purchase price. The subsequent price increase also improved our stop price to $8.48 - above our original target price.

I plan to monitor PACT throughout the remainder of the day making a decision to hold or sell by EOD.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-28, Monday - Update

Price for TOPT improved to $22.00 resulting in an improved stop of .70 cents or $20.95. The resulting drop in price of TOPT triggered our stop. As a result, I sell 1000 shares of TOPT for loss. Our loss of .35 cents per share equates to a gross loss of $350.00 USD (1.6%).

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-28, Monday - TOPT Loss Analysis

In order to conduct an analysis of the TOPT trade, I reviewed the attached daily chart. After adding trendlines, my error appeared plain as day. The upper trendline crosses extremely close to the $22.00 USD price point (today's high). Rather than set the target price for a 10% gain, I should have used the upper trendline as an initial target price. Had price gone beyond this level, we would have had a confirmed breakout, and I could have then used the 10% gain as my target. I did not allow the market to confirm my trade as correct. Retreating from the $22.00 USD price point confirmed a false breakout. As a result of my failure to properly analyze the trend prior to taking a position, I held TOPT when I should have exited.

I hope others find the above information useful, and in the future, can learn to avoid the same mistake I made today.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=695761>
 

Attachments

2005-02-28, Monday - PACT - Update

With a falling MACD and Stochastic Indicator and decreasing volume late in the afternoon, I needed to determine if selling the shares of PACT appeared a better decision than holding overnight. Having already exceeded our initial target goal of a 10% increase, and the fact that I had already experienced a loss on the day due to my own mental errors, I opted to sell all shares of PACT.

02/28/05 15:54:00 9.00 9.00 9.03 1000

The resulting sale provided a gross profit of $1350 or $1.35 USD per share - a 17.6% gain. While the trade provided a nice profit on the day, and 17.6% remains our largest percentage gain since the journal began, I still need to look to improve the methods working toward capturing half the expected move.

I hope you found today's commentary useful.

- Spydertrader
 
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