Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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2005-02-18, Friday - Lists

I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists

Stocktables.com
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
VPI - ANTP - PMTI
HURC - CTSH - VTIV
PTRY - TIBX - CMC
NSS - UTHR - HOLX
MRVL - ISRG - MIPS
LSS - HLIT - MEE
CCJ - TOPT - WCC
EZPW - MFLX - FLSH
UTHR - WWCA
------ SNDA

Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual
Hotlist

ANTP
TOPT
MFLX
HURC
EZPW
EZPW
MIPS
SNDA

Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data
Watch List

GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
PACT - DU Cycle - DU5
ANTP - DU Cycle
CUTR - DU Cycle
TASR - DU Cycle
NGPS - DU Cycle
KEYW - DU Cycle
INTN - DU Cycle
ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
TOPT - DU Cycle
MFLX - DU Cycle
BCSI - DU Cycle
EBKR - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
SNDA - DU Cycle
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
FFIV - DU Cycle
HANS - DU Cycle
IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ULBI - DU Cycle
SINA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10

Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score)

GOAM - 0
NGPS - 7

Eyeball
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks

FFIV (Attached)

Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations
Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero

GOAM
PACT
KEYW
TOPT
MFLX
EBKR
SNDA
FFIV
HANS
SINA

Stocktables Sort/Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations/
Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist

EXM 0
HANS 0
ISSC 0
KEYW 0
MFLX 0
MIPS 0
PMTI 0
SNDA 0
TOPT 0
TRGL 1
MT 2
ELOS 7
EZPW 7

(GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA & HLIT have float outside normal parameters) - MT & TRGL now have float within our parameters.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=688886>
 

Attachments

2005-02-18, Friday - Update

Our system generated two signals this morning, and I ignored them both. Within 45 minutes after the opening bell, Actual Volume for TOPT & SINA exceeded calculated dry up volume. Unfortunately, price for TOPT & SINA gapped up 6.4% and 5.3% respectively. In the past, stocks that have gapped up in price have failed to perform according to my expectations. As a result, I try to avoid trading Hershey Stocks that gap in price greater than 5%. The "Gap Open" rule I use when trading Hershey Stocks, I created from my own observations. Jack Hershey does not teach gap avoidance in his original methods. Of course, your mileage may vary. For those tracking the outcome of my decision to avoid these two stocks, TOPT currently trades .42 below signal price ($20.41), and SINA currently trades .56 above price at signal ($24.42).

- Spydertrader
 
TOPT & SINA - Update

For those individuals continuing to track the outcome of my decision to avoid Friday's two signals, I provide the following updates. TOPT closed Friday at $19.88 - $0.53 below signal price ($20.41), and SINA closed Friday at $25.60 - $1.18 above price at signal ($24.42).

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-21, Monday - Lists

I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists

Stocktables.com
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
MDRX - SNDA - DTPI
TIE - ISRG - MRVL
TOPT - MIPS - CMC
XPRSA - WCC - FRD
ZEUS - MEE - EZPW
VPI - CTSH - USNA
NSS - ANTP - TIBX
XTO - NGPS - CCJ
BUCY - FLSH - PMTI
WLL - WWCA

Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual
Hotlist

ANTP
NGPS
FRD
TOPT
EZPW
MIPS
SNDA
PMTI

Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data
Watch List

GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
PACT - DU Cycle - DU5
ANTP - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
CUTR - DU Cycle
TASR - DU Cycle - DU5
ANGO - DU Cycle - DU5
NGPS - DU Cycle - DU5
INTN - DU Cycle
ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
TRGL - DU Cycle
MFLX - DU Cycle
BCSI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
EBKR - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
UBET - DU Cycle
MIPS - DU Cycle
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
FFIV - DU Cycle
ULBI - DU Cycle
IPXL - DU Cycle - DU5
IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
ISSC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10

Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score)

GOAM - 0
NGPS - 1

Eyeball
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks

SNDA (Attached)

Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations
Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero

GOAM
PACT
ANTP
TASR
TRGL
BCSI
EBKR
MIPS
FFIV
ULBI
IPXL

Stocktables Sort/Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations/
Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist

MIPS 0
MT 0
PMTI 0
TRGL 0
MFLX 1
ELOS 2
EXM 2
HANS 2
SNDA 2
KEYW 3
EZPW 5
TOPT 6

(GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA & HLIT have float outside normal parameters) - MT & TRGL now have float within our parameters.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=690236>
 

Attachments

2005-02-21, Monday - Lists

Due to the President's Day Market Holiday, the header on the above posted lists should have read:

2005-02-22, Tuesday - Lists

I apologize for any confusion resulting from my typo.

Enjoy the day off.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

2005-02-21, Monday - Lists

Due to the President's Day Market Holiday, the header on the above posted lists should have read:

2005-02-22, Tuesday - Lists

I apologize for any confusion resulting from my typo.

Enjoy the day off.

- Spydertrader
More...

Thanks for continously posting this list. It is extremely helpful.

Take care.
 
Hi Spydertrader,

I was hoping you could assist me, as I think that I am doing something wrong when calculating DU Cycle or DU 5,10,20 (or both!). Allow me to clarify.

I currently use Wealth-Lab developer along with the extremely handy Hershey Equities script that you and a few others developed.

To calculate the DU Cycle, I add up the lowest volumes from within each cycle, and average them over the 5 cycles.

For DU 5, I work back from the most recent date of each cycle, taking the lowest volume within 5 days and averaging them over the 5 cycles.

I think my DU 5 calc is correct, but I am missing something with my DU Cycle calc and here is why: if any of your stocks are in DU, they are ALWAYS in DU Cycle, but not necessarily any other DU calc, which leads me to believe that 100% of the time, DU Cycle calc comes up with a higher volume average than any other calculation.

This is not true the way I calculate DU. For example:

Let’s say we have three separate and different cycles (forgetting the 5 times in 6 months rule for the moment), 20% in 3 days, 20% in 5 days and 20% in 8 days. In the 3 day cycle, DU 5 could never have a higher volume than DU Cycle, but could have a lower volume, if the low volume were to happen 4 or 5 days out. In the 5 day cycle, DU 5 and DU Cycle would have to be the same. In the 8 day cycle, DU 5 could never have a lower volume than DU Cycle, but could have a higher volume, if the low volume happened 6,7 or 8 days out.

Of course, this is assuming I am doing the calcs correctly, which it seems that I am not. What do you think?

Thanks in advance for your help,
smtrader
 
Quote from smtrader:

I was hoping you could assist me, as I think that I am doing something wrong when calculating DU Cycle or DU 5,10,20 (or both!).
More...

After reviewing your post several times to make sure I understood your methods correctly, I fail to see where you made any errors. As you progress from DU Cycle to DU5, DU10 & DU20, the value of Calculated DU Volume should decrease - resulting in a greater number of stocks in "Du Cycle" Dry up Volume and the least amount of stocks in all 4 methods of Dry Up Volume Calculation. In other words, Dry Up Cycle is the 'easiest' level of Dry Up for a stock to make.

DU Cycle is an average of the lowest volumes inside the last 5 cycles before breakout. DU20 should closely approximate the results obtained from The Wealth-Lab Hershey Chartscript (not exact, but close). The DU Cycle Method for Dry Up Volume calculation was obtained from an earlier version of either Max Gainz or Vorzo's Chartscripts on the Wealth-Lab.com web site.

When I began the experiment for determining which method of Dry Up Volume calculation best anticipated a breakout in price, I anticipated one method would prove superior to the rest. After six months of tracking, no one method stands out above all others.

I wasn't sure if you were using the lowest volume in a cycle or the lowest volume before breakout in a cycle. The lowest volume before breakout should calculate a higher level of DU Volume than the lowest volume in a cycle.

The biggest problem with attempting to automate Dry Up Volume calculation remains the fact that "Dry Up" can last a while before a breakout occurs in both volume and price. Unfortunately, no one method seems to capture the spirit of Jack's 'eyeball' method.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-22, Tuesday - Update

Today we witnessed the highest number of signals generated by the system during the last six months. The Hershey Equities System generated six signals in all this morning. Many occurred right after the opening bell continuing on throughout the morning. The following discussion describes each signal and the decisions associated with it. I have listed the signals in order of their Hershey Rank (not the time when signal generation occurred).

Using a 50% pro-rata volume trigger (for the DU10 Dry Up Level), ELOS created a signal just after 10:30 AM this morning. However, we did not have price improvement at that time. As a result, we ignore the signal at take no action with regard to ELOS.

We witnessed EBKR generate a signal also using the 50% pro-rata volume requirement this morning. However, EBKR's signal resulted from the DU20 Dry Up Volume Calculation. Although we do see price improvement, EBKR continues to have an average daily volume below our desired parameters. Not wishing to enter into a position with a "thinly traded" stock, I ignored this signal and take no action with regard to EBKR.

MIPS generated a signal this morning when actual volume exceeded the 50% pro-rata calculation on the DU Cycle method of Dry Up Volume Calculation. Unfortunately, we fail to see price improvement with MIPS, and as a result, ignore this signal as well.
We briefly consider the possibility of shorting MIPS as the MACD (-.0583) looked good. However, The Stochastic Indicator (25.4443) held at a level above our desired 'shorting' parameters. As a result, we take no action - either long or short - with regard to MIPS.

Actual Volume for IPXL exceeded 50% pro-rata calculated Dry Up Volume within 15 minutes of the open. (The volume trigger occurred using the DU5 Method of Dry Up Volume calculation, although actual volume did exceed both DU Cycle and DU5 Dry Up Volume levels prior to 11:00 AM.) We had price improvement. Both MACD (+.0165) and The Stochastic Indicator (92.1055) fell within desired parameters. As a result, I entered into a long position with 1000 shares.

02/22/05 09:47:37 17.35 17.33 17.35 1000

I continue to monitor IPXL throughout the afternoon anticipating actual volume levels reaching FRV status before the close. If Volume and price continue to increase, I expect to hold overnight. However, if both volume and price fail to improve, I plan to sell for a 'wash trade.'

IDSA also triggered a signal this morning when actual volume exceeded the 50% pro-rata Dry Up Volume calculation using the DU10 method of Dry Up Volume Calculation. However, as we have seen in the past, IDSA continues to have an average daily volume well below our desired parameters. In addition, IDSA failed to show price improvement. As a result of these two factors, we ignore the IDSA signal and take no action with regard to IDSA.

Lastly, ISSC generated a signal this morning using the 50% pro-rata Dry Up Volume levels. We did not have price improvement. By time signal generation occurred, both MACD (-.2323) and The Stochastic Indicator (25.0175), had reversed their downward slides and began to slope upward. As a result, I felt it unwise to enter into a short position. Because we appear to have no clear cut signal for either long or short, I take no action with regard to ISSC.

By 11:30 AM, actual volume for the stocks discussed above reached the following levels of Dry Up Volume Calculation:

ELOS - DU10
EBKR - DU10 -DU20
MIPS - DU Cycle
IPXL - DU Cycle - DU5
IDSA - DU5 - DU10
ISSC - DU5 - DU10

IPXL:

Target: $19.09
Stop: $16.48

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
 
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