Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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2005-02-11, Friday - Update

The system triggered a signal this morning as actual volume on TASR exceeded the 50% pro-rata calculated Dry Up Volume around 9:40 AM. Unfortunately, we do not see price improvement with TASR ($13.77). MACD remained positive (+.0202), but The Stochastic Indicator remained low (15.1733). As Price, MACD and Stochastics fall outside our desired parameters, I take no action with regards to TASR. If MACD were to turn negative and The Stochastic Indicator remains low, TASR might become a viable short candidate. YMMV.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-11, Friday - Update

The system triggered two additional signals this morning as actual volume on EBKR and COGT exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume just before 11:00 AM. With EBKR, we have a thinly traded stock with an average daily volume outside our desired parameters. As a result, we take no action with regard to EBKR.

COGT, on the other hand, shows price improvement and an average volume within our desired parameters. MACD levels show a level well into the positive range (+.2102), and The Stochastic Indicator held at high levels (97.8795). Price held at $30.45. As a result, we enter into a long trade with 1000 shares.

02/11/05 10:51:00 30.45 30.44 30.45 1000

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-11, Friday - Update

Because price has appreciated $1.36 since we purchased our shares of COGT, we move our original stop price (set at a 5% loss) $28.92 upwards in accordance with increasing price. Our new stop, based on the high so far of $31.80, now resides at $30.28.

- Spydertrader
 
Spydertrader

There are probably more than 20-25 stocks on the various watch lists. Do you manually monitor these stocks during the day until 11:00 AM?

If so, do you monitor any other list (i.e. short list)?

Thanks in advance.
 
2005-02-14, Monday - Lists

Happy Valentine's Day!

I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists

Stocktables.com
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
PETD - CMC - IPS
DTPI - WITS - MIPS
KBAY - ADBL - MT
FLSH - JOYG - VTIV
CTSH - AFFX - NTAP
HOLX - NGPS - CMC
MDRX - IPS - TOPT
EZPW - ANTP - LCAV
CCJ - HLIT - ISRG
MRVL - SNDA - BUCY

Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual
Hotlist

ANTP
NGPS
TOPT
EZPW
MIPS
ADBL
SNDA
KBAY

Wealth-Lab Data/Yahoo Data
Watch List

GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5
PACT - DU Cycle - DU5
TASR - DU Cycle
NGPS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
KEYW - DU Cycle
ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
TOPT - DU Cycle
MFLX - DU Cycle
SNDA - DU Cycle
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
JUPM - DU Cycle
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
IDSA - DU Cycle

Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score)

ANGO - 5
TASR - 2

Eyeball
Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks

EXM (Attached)

Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations
Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero

NGPS
ELOS
TOPT
SNDA
ESMC

Stocktables Sort/Yahoo Data/G33M4K Equations/
Test Culling Method with Score Hotlist

ANTP 0
CUTR 1
FRD 1
HANS 1
KEYW 1
MIPS 1
INTN 7

(GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA, MT, HLIT, TRGL have float outside normal parameters)

The following Stocks have been ADDED to the Final Universe List as of 2005-02-07: KBAY.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=686276>
 

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Quote from svrz:

There are probably more than 20-25 stocks on the various watch lists. Do you manually monitor these stocks during the day until 11:00 AM?

If so, do you monitor any other list (i.e. short list)?

Thanks in advance.
More...

Each Day, I monitor all the stocks on the various lists that I post (not including sevens - ones - zeros), but I monitor some more closely than others. Stocks that fall outside our normal parameters for Average Daily Volume, float or EPS, I only monitor from a volume standpoint, and when an alert triggers my tracking software, I look at price and the chart. I do this for posting purposes in the journal, rather than, for monitoring for a possible trade. Other stocks, such as those with Master List Score of Zero, I watch until something causes me to disregard that stock as a possible choice for the day. Overall, I closely monitor about ten stocks at a time (switching between various lists from time to time), but have alerts set for around 20-25 during the day. While all stocks have a volume alert, the number of stocks actively monitored (my short list) shrinks between 9:30 and 11:30 EST as price and volume action fails to materialize. After 11:30, I reset the volume alerts to FRV from Dry Up levels to catch the stocks that might not hit DU by 11:30, but do hit FRV by EOD. Of course, if I have an open chart for any stock in which I currently hold a position.

- Spydertrader
 
Hi Spydertrader,

I have been lurking here for a few months and read all of your suggested links. Before my questions, thanks for all your efforts.

My questions:

Quote from Spydertrader:

Sevens - Ones - Zeros
PETD - CMC - IPS
DTPI - WITS - MIPS
KBAY - ADBL - MT
FLSH - JOYG - VTIV
CTSH - AFFX - NTAP
HOLX - NGPS - CMC
MDRX - IPS - TOPT
EZPW - ANTP - LCAV
CCJ - HLIT - ISRG
MRVL - SNDA - BUCY
More...
When I did the stocktables.com sort, I have the same exact list as you except I have DATA in it instead of PETD. PETD would have been the 11th score 7, DATA being the first. DATA has positive price change over yesterday and adaquate volume. Any reason you did not include DATA?

Wealth-Lab Chartscript/Manual
Hotlist

ANTP
NGPS
TOPT
EZPW
MIPS
ADBL
SNDA
KBAY

The following Stocks have been ADDED to the Final Universe List as of 2005-02-07: KBAY.
More...

For KBAY, I can only find 4 20% cycles in the last 6 months, using Wealth-Lab. Also, it only has about 8 months of price history. I was under the impression that you looked for stocks with at least 2 years. Since we don't have enough price history, I am assuming it can't be tenured. I get very close doing it manually from mid December to late December, but not quite 20%. In the spirit of "eyeballing" the charts as Jack does, do we occasionally take some liberties? (see attached KBAY chart)

Wealth-Lab Developer Data & Equations/G33M4K Equations
SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score)

ANGO - 5
TASR - 2
More...
Using SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations, I do not get TASR in DU... are you still using Yahoo for historical data? (I'll attach the SRVZ WL chart in next post)

Thanks again for doing this journal, I am sure there are others like me who rarely (if ever) post, but still find this information extemely useful and interesting. This also goes out to all the others who have posted useful information, as Spydertrader always mentions.

Great journal!

smtrader
 

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Quote from smtrader:

Any reason you did not include DATA? ......

For KBAY, I can only find 4 20% cycles in the last 6 months .....

Using SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations, I do not get TASR in DU ...
More...

After reviewing the Stocktables.com Data Download, DATA should have been on the list of sevens, as you correctly observe, and PETD should not. My error probably results from misreading the volume numbers (I may have thought Friday's Volume read 70,903 instead of the 709030). Thanks for alerting me to my snafu.

I used the 'eyeball' method with KBAY, and decided the first big jump in price (according to Wealth-Lab) counted as two 20% runs over a three week period, rather than as Wealth-Lab indicated, one price run up during that time period. As you can see, I still have yet to master the eyeballing technique. I should have posted a disclaimer along with KBAY stating the chart had less than the desired two years worth of DATA. Thanks for clarifying.

The (attached) chart of TASR shows volume DU using the SRVZ Dry Up Two Equation. I can only assume the discrepancy results from differences in data sources. Since I use Yahoo Data with Wealth-Lab Developer (something I hope to change this week), I must attribute the difference to some silliness involved with the Yahoo Data Servers (too common an occurrence lately).

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=686378>
 

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Thanks for the reply, Spydertrader.

When you mention tracking software, are you referring to Quotetracker? If I may ask, what are the alert parameters?

Thanks again.
 
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