Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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Quote from sluzbenik:

KEYW - Shouldn't this have triggered for you today?
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I have received several PM's and emails regarding KEYW - questioning why I did not post a trade signal. Let's see if we can clear up any lingering confusion on the matter.

Of the several methods of Dry Up Volume Calculation I use to track the Watch List Stocks, only one, indicated KEYW actual volume to be at or below calculated Dry Up Volume on 2005-02-01 (the previous trading day). Using the Wealth-Lab Hershey Chartscript, KEYW returned a calculated Dry Up Volume of 65,780 and an ACTUAL volume of 100,790 on 2005-02-01 (according to my data provider). As a result of actual volume being greater than calculated dry up volume, we deem the stock to "not be in dry up." KEYW was in dry up using the "Du Cycle" method of calculating Dry Up Volume, but not using the Wealth-Lab Chartscript (again, according to my data provider).

In the past, different data providers have returned different values of volume. Depending on which data provider you use, you may have calculated KEYW to actually be in dry up using the Wealth-Lab Hershey Chartscript, when I did not. It certainly doesn't mean you were wrong with your calculations, it only means I need to find a better data provider.

According to my data provider, actual volume did exceed calculated dry up volume (using Dry Up Cycle Method of Dry Up Volume Calculation), but it did so after the 11:30 AM timeframe. As a result, I did not post a trade signal for KEYW, nor did I trade it.

For those of you that did calculate KEYW to be in Dry Up, and received a trade signal, congrats on a great trade.

I hope the above cleared up any remaining confusion.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from sluzbenik:

What criteria do you mean with regard to TOPT, SINA, and MFLX?
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I have initiated testing on two separate variants of The Jack Hershey Equities System. The results of these tests (using papertrades) have been positive thus far. One method seeks to create a list of stocks to watch by skipping the "three list creation" step of making lists of ones, sevens and zeros. I start with our stocktables.com sort of 90 EPS and 90 RS, then I move to eliminating all stocks outside the normal float parameters, those with negative eps and average daily volume of below 200,000 shares. Then using the G33M4K Master List, I score each stock. A buy signal generates when both price and volume begin to increase. The other method currently under review focuses on stocks currently in dry up and with a G33M4K Score of zero. The above stocks fell into these two testing categories. Additional testing is required before I can present a methodology and show a positive expectancy across an appropriate number of data points. Again, these tests are just that - an experiment. I apologize for any confusion I may have created by posting the results of these tests.

Quote from sluzbenik:

I am eyeballing DU for the most part and might not be getting it - though I do understand the concept. Please comment on these DU observations.

TOPT - the 27th was for me the volume breakout. That broke FRV at least according to the chartscript's calculations. Getting in now seems a bit late.

SINA - just don't get this one.

MFLX - Feb. 1st looks like the volume breakout to me. I'm eyeballing that one, the chartscript's numbers seem too low possibly because of the lack of history.
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You appear to have the 'eyeballing' aspect of dry up down pretty well. Since the above stocks were used in a test, I did not necessarily worry about Dry Up or Not in Dry Up for the above stocks. The tests were based on the criteria mentioned above, and not the 'normal' Hershey methodology. Again, I apologize for any confusion I may have created.

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-03, Thursday - Lists

I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists

Sevens - Ones - Zeros
MFLX - ADBL - RSTI
FRD - ANTP - JOYG
DTPI - JUPM - MEE
HOLX - HLIT - LCAV
MIPS - COGT - WWCA
PTRY - FLSH - AFFX
TOPT - ISRG - PMTI
BBW - ELOS - SYNA
KEYW - NTAP
VTIV - NGPS

Hotlist

ANTP
NGPS
KEYW
MFLX
ELOS
TOPT
FRD
COGT
SYNA
ADBL
HLIT
MIPS
JUPM
PMTI

Watch List

GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5
ANTP - DU Cycle - DU5
PACT - DU Cycle
TASR - DU Cycle
IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ANGO - DU Cycle
INTN - DU Cycle - DU5
ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5
BCSI - DU Cycle
COGT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
UBET - DU Cycle
BLTI - DU Cycle
ADBL - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
HLIT - DU Cycle
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5
JUPM - DU Cycle
HRT - DU Cycle

SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score)

ANTP - 4
EBKR - 3
TASR - 0

Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks

FFIV (Attached)
CALM (Attached)

Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero

TASR
ANGO
ELOS
COGT
BLTI
CALM
HRT

(GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA, MT, HLIT have float outside normal parameters)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=680505>

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=680507>
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

I have initiated testing on two separate variants ...
- Spydertrader
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Just wanted to mention that I hope to come back with results over the next month or so for testing a variant of sorts. Again, my orientation is sitting in the stands with a pair of binoculars (Excel spreadsheet - i'm a simpleton) doing a periodic sweeping scan of the entire field of equities vehicles every 30 mins. The momentum of the equity vehicles are tipped off by volume, DU/FRV similar concept. Taking this one step furthur, I can relax cycle constraints and look for unusual relative volume and rank each equity according to their degree of unsualness. No doubt, this is the leader board. Better still for the trigger happy, unusual relative PRV. As I have been, I will be happy to post once I've fleshed how to systematically make the components strictly derived from the market. The intention is to compound continuously, whether a meager 1% or 2%, thus being in the market EVERY day. This does wonders for NLP knowing that a meager 1% or 2% is certainly achievable. Strangely, the difficulty for most will be committing all of the capital, the true power of compounding. Jack has had his NLP built in for a long time, hence sitting through a HVS on 6-8 day run of 10%+ is no sweat for him. No doubt I would love to reach this level, however my own NLP is limited. Compound 1% for a month (20 or so trading days). Jack opts for the 10% because he aims to MINIMIZE the effort he needs to put in to appreciate capital. Additionally, the amount of capital he enters the market would surely disturb the equities natural flow. Hence, Jack has to bleeds in to the market to avoid such disturbances. For me, I am nowhere near this level, and fortunately can glean and hit the floor 100% without disturbing (T&S notes this). I settle for 1% because the compounding is the goal. Better yet, the approach still captures the 10% INTRAday gains when they exist. The only disadvantage is the INTERday gap ups. I know... Too vague not enough detail, i'm still coding and pencil & padding all the AHA's. RELAX! It's coming... The principles are definitely sound.

Some thought,
G33M4K BE[\b]ginner
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

In addition, much of my profits have occurred during "short sale" trades.
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There was a good short trade in BSCI this morning using a 25% DU signal, and another quickie short on Tuesday with ULBI. In my limited experience so far, I have noticed that the 25% signal seems be the best for shorts, since it gets you in as early as possible when the stock is dropping fast. Also, looking at the daily chart for BCSI, it looked like a pull back was in the works, and had a g33m4k score of 5, so the odds were favorable.

I know the bread and butter trades for this methodology are to the long side but it looks very promising from the short perspective as well. Just my 2 cents. -Johnc99
 

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Quote from johnc99:

I know the bread and butter trades for this methodology are to the long side but it looks very promising from the short perspective as well. Just my 2 cents. -Johnc99
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A significant portion of my profits in the last year resulted from 'short sale' trades of Hershey Stocks. The vast majority of my 'short trades' have lasted less than one trading day, and I often exit within a few hours. My reluctance to include a full blown discussion on shorting Hershey Stocks in this journal stems from the fact that my methodology for shorting didn't come from Jack Hershey. In addition, I have always felt that my knowledge of the 'Long Side' of the Hershey Equities Method enabled me to profit on the short side. In other words, best to focus on one area before attempting to master another.

On another note, excellent observations on the recent short opportunities presented in the last few weeks. keep up the great work.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-02-04, Friday - Lists

I used RS and EPS Settings of 90 for the following lists

Sevens - Ones - Zeros
EZPW - ANTP - BBW
BUCY - COGT - SYNA
JOYG - WCC - MIPS
DTPI - HLIT - MFLX
LCBM - ELOS - UTHR
XPRSA - NGPS - VPI
HANS - MT - FFIV
CCJ - CMC - TOPT
FLSH - ADBL - ISRG
MEE - ZEUS - LCAV

Hotlist

ANTP
NGPS
MFLX
ELOS
TOPT
COGT
SYNA
EZPW
ADBL
HLIT
MIPS
FFIV
HANS

Watch List

GOAM - DU Cycle - DU5
ANTP - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
PACT - DU Cycle
TASR - DU Cycle
IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
KEYW - DU Cycle
ANGO - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
INTN - DU Cycle
ELOS - DU Cycle - DU5
TOPT - DU Cycle
EBKR - DU Cycle
COGT - DU Cycle
UBET - DU Cycle - DU5
BLTI - DU Cycle
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
JUPM - DU Cycle
ULBI - DU Cycle
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
EVCI - DU Cycle - DU5
SINA - DU Cycle - DU5

SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations - Dry Up (with G33M4K Score)

ANTP - 0
CALM - 0
INTN - 2
TASR - 2

Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stocks

ELOS (Attached)

Dry Up Stocks with G33M4K Master List Score of Zero

ANTP
PACT
ANGO
ELOS
TOPT
UBET
CALM
JUPM
SINA

(GOAM, ANTP, NGPS, ANGO, HRT, IDSA, MT, HLIT have float outside normal parameters)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=681144>
 

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2005-02-04, Friday - Trade Signal

Actual Volume for ELOS exceeded the 25% pro-rata level of calculated Dry Up almost immediately after the open triggering a trade signal. Both MACD (+.0863) and The Stochastic Indicator (92.5155) confirmed within our normal parameters. As a result, we enter into a long position with ELOS receiving a fill price of $29.89.

02/04/05 09:34:49 29.89 29.85 29.90 700

Our Target Price: $32.88
Our Initial Stop: $28.39

If price moves in our favor we will trail price upward with an improved stop. ELOS came from the list of Dry Up Stocks that also had a G33M4K "Master List" Score of zero.

- Spydertrader
 
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