Attached, Chart mentioned in above post.
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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Both HRT and PETD signaled this morning on a 25% Pro-Rata basis. At time of signal (9:38 AM), price on PETD traded at 35.49. While HRT continues to have float issues, price at time of signal (9:52 AM) traded at $25.47. Volume on HRT continued to increase. Actual Volume on HRT exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume just before 10:00 AM. However, price continues to decrease with HRT. We take no action on HRT.
Regarding PETD, MACD held at (+.0988) and The Stochastic Indicator held steady at (82.0885). Both indicators fall within our parameters. Even though the determination to take the trade occurred in less than a minute, the market for PETD had moved upwards during that time.
PETD 11/22/04 09:38:52 35.58 35.58 35.58 450
Regarding PETD, MACD held at (+.0988) and The Stochastic Indicator held steady at (82.0885). Both indicators fall within our parameters. Even though the determination to take the trade occurred in less than a minute, the market for PETD had moved upwards during that time.
PETD 11/22/04 09:38:52 35.58 35.58 35.58 450
Volume on PETD appears to be exhibiting a decreasing pace at the moment. While PETD actual volume easily exceeded the 50% pro-rata dry up volume level at 10:30 AM, it appears to be having some difficulty reaching the 75% pro-rata volume level by 11:00 AM. While price has increased dramatically, MACD continues to decrease (+.0128), and The Stochastic Indicator continues to increase (93.1626). Current price: ($36.96).
While actual volume on PETD continued to increase - resulting in exceeding the 75% pro-rata dry up volume level by 11:00 AM - price began to drop off from the daily high. When the Stochastic Indicator for PETD fell below 50 (indicating lack of a strong trend), I felt it was time to exit.
11/22/04 11:01:48 36.96 36.96 37.05 450
The above trade resulted in a profit of $1.38 per share. We should continue to monitor PETD in case trend returns (we can always re-enter the stock).
- Spydertrader
11/22/04 11:01:48 36.96 36.96 37.05 450
The above trade resulted in a profit of $1.38 per share. We should continue to monitor PETD in case trend returns (we can always re-enter the stock).
- Spydertrader
Still holding:
CALM - down .20 from our entry point
SWIR - down .25 from our entry point
PETD - price appears to be trying to creep back up. Continue monitoring to determine if getting back in would be a wise decision.
HRT - (From a PM) "Would it have made sense to short this stock ignoring the float parameters?" Answer: NO. At the time of our actual DU volume signal, MACD was positive and The Stochastic Indicator was negative, but not negative enough. When we decide to short Hershey Stocks, we need to make sure that the MACD is negative (and hopefully falling) and that the Stochastic Indicator is below 20. Neither of these occurred with HRT. As a result we would not have wanted to short HRT (even without the float problems) due to HRT not conforming to our entry rules. Yes, in hindsight, one can say, "See the price went down, so why wouldn't we have shorted it?" At the time of our signal, we had no way of knowing then the price would be lower now.
- Spydertrader
CALM - down .20 from our entry point
SWIR - down .25 from our entry point
PETD - price appears to be trying to creep back up. Continue monitoring to determine if getting back in would be a wise decision.
HRT - (From a PM) "Would it have made sense to short this stock ignoring the float parameters?" Answer: NO. At the time of our actual DU volume signal, MACD was positive and The Stochastic Indicator was negative, but not negative enough. When we decide to short Hershey Stocks, we need to make sure that the MACD is negative (and hopefully falling) and that the Stochastic Indicator is below 20. Neither of these occurred with HRT. As a result we would not have wanted to short HRT (even without the float problems) due to HRT not conforming to our entry rules. Yes, in hindsight, one can say, "See the price went down, so why wouldn't we have shorted it?" At the time of our signal, we had no way of knowing then the price would be lower now.
- Spydertrader
I wasn't paying attention, and as a result, I missed getting back in on PETD. Both the MACD and The Stochastic Indicator looked great too. For those that jumped back on the ride, congrats to you. Stupid mistake on my part. Ah well, on to the next trade.
- Spydertrader
- Spydertrader
At close, CALM remained just under our purchase price (by .07) closing at $13.40. SWIR closed at $19.21 (just above our purchase price) up .21 from our entry. PETD did NOT reach FRV status by the end of the day. Today's PETD Chart Attached.
- Spydertrader
- Spydertrader
Attachments
I got burned on CNTY today - doubly burned as on 2:1 margin. Stop order to got hit at open, which was unfortunately the low of the day.
Anyone:
1. Are you doing the Hershey system on 2:1 margin (PS: I can only trade end-of-day)?
2. Do you use market stops or manual exits (remembering end of day constraint)?
Anyone:
1. Are you doing the Hershey system on 2:1 margin (PS: I can only trade end-of-day)?
2. Do you use market stops or manual exits (remembering end of day constraint)?
Spyder:
In your results list, it seems you get out of stocks very quickly. Your largest gain is 10%. I know we have a 6-8 day cycle but there are many stocks in Hershey type lists that have gone up 20% in a couple of weeks.
I use a tight trailing stop, as I have found that I used to get out after volume peaks, but then often an immediate second surge would take the stock up another 10%. This still maximises price appreciation rate.
In your results list, it seems you get out of stocks very quickly. Your largest gain is 10%. I know we have a 6-8 day cycle but there are many stocks in Hershey type lists that have gone up 20% in a couple of weeks.
I use a tight trailing stop, as I have found that I used to get out after volume peaks, but then often an immediate second surge would take the stock up another 10%. This still maximises price appreciation rate.
Quote from nzbryant:
I got burned on CNTY today - doubly burned as on 2:1 margin. Stop order to got hit at open, which was unfortunately the low of the day.
Sorry to hear you "got burned" today. Losses do occur and form one of the many "costs of doing business" experienced by the career trader. If You follow a system (or set of rules) that has a positive expectancy, you should come out ahead in the long run. To prevent the likelihood of "account blowout," we practice the use of money management techniques. The use of money and risk management rules prevents risk above 2% of the account total on any signal trade. In other words, even if we hit our 5% stop loss, this loss is never more than 2% of my account balance. In a discussion about the importance of money management rules to the trader, I posted a link to a web site containing various methods for practicing money and risk management. Here is the URL:
http://members.aon.at/tips/moneyMan10.htm
Quote from nzbryant:
1. Are you doing the Hershey system on 2:1 margin (PS: I can only trade end-of-day)?
Trading on margin carries with it additional risks. Jack Hershey doesn't recommend the use of margin. He recommends starting with whatever money you have, and adding to that account from each paycheck while trading smaller share sizes. Jack began his trading career with $300.00 adding to his account both from his trading profits AND from his paycheck while working at IBM. If I recall correctly, he retired in under five years and celebrated by taking his wife to Europe and purchasing a Mercedes from the factory in Germany for his wife.
If you do plan to use margin for your trading, reduce your risk tolerance to a level to cover a max of 2% on YOUR money without margin. In other words, if you use 2:1 margin, use a 1% risk.
Quote from nzbryant:
2. Do you use market stops or manual exits (remembering end of day constraint)?
When I traded EOD only, I used stop orders to exit some of the trades. After realizing I could use technology to further my trading, I configured my computer to email my mobile phone with an alert based on certain market levels (volume, price etc.). I would then phone my broker, and place the trade. I believe Jack still phones his broker to place his trades using the computer to do the sorting of his various stock lists.
Hope that helped.
- Spydertrader
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