Quote from hpeganz:
I scanned the whole day everything I could put my cursor on about Jack's methodology ..... <snip>
As srvz pointed out, the difficulty in 'back testing' The Hershey Equities Method stems from the ever changing nature of the Hershey Universe of stocks. Creating the initial universe out of stocks that currently rank in the top 80 to 90 percent (EPS & RS)of all stocks implies that ranking can (and frequently does) change over time. Hence, a stock traded last summer (SOHU, DRIV, LEND etc.) with excellent results, fails to appear in our list of potential trades today. Conversely, equities that failed to appear in our initial universe last summer (TASR, BAMM, GDP etc.) now regularly appear in our list of potential candidates. As inandlong pointed out, the above observation results from the cyclical nature of the Hershey Equity Universe as we attempt to place our trades with stocks that contain the highest money velocity - earn the most, the fastest.
Much like yourself, I wanted to test the claims made by Jack Hershey under various market conditions. When I first learned of his Methods on USENET, I too needed 'proof' of results. Instead of searching for 'back tests' performed by others, I decided the best way to test the system would be to do the tests myself. As a result, I needed to learn the system first.
Considering the VAST amount of data posted by Jack Hershey on USENET (in the Google USENET archives), Elitetrader, MSN and other web sites, combing through the extensive library of posts in a single day is amazing. The same process required several months of reading for me. Might I suggest you start again from the beginning and learn the methods involved. Only then can you create an accurate test to determine for yourself the validity of the claims made.
I recommend you study the methods posted in the various forums and determine for yourself if this trading strategy would fit your personality. While Jack's system is not the 'Holy Grail' of trading, it does produce profitable trades on a fairly consistent basis. However, I do NOT want you to simply take my word for it. I prefer you to arrive at that conclusion on your own.
Quote from hpeganz:
So again it would be helpful to learn more about results you or other followers of this method - system got.
In addition to the links provided in previous posts, I posted my 'test' results from August of 2003 in this thread:
http://groups.msn.com/JackHersheysS..._Message=195&LastModified=4675438487580862834
You can also find additional results posted by Max Gainz, Vorzo, Bundletrader and others in the same thread.
Attached, please find the results for each trade taken since the start of this journal. The attached "Journal Results (all trades).xls file includes ALL trades (including short sales and the UBET trade where my mobile phone failed to receive the sell signal). While the SS Trades and the UBET trade will NOT be included in the Final Results for the Journal (to avoid the perception of impropriety and other reasons mentioned in previous posts), I include ALL results here as a matter of accuracy - full disclosure.
While the majority of our trades have been profitable, I still feel we have room for significant improvement. As we continue to the process of 'iterative refinement,' I have full confidence our results will improve over our current levels of success.
I appreciate the collaborative effort, and the contributions given by so many to the success of this thread. I continue to encourage input and analysis. Again, thanks to everyone reading and providing commentary.
