Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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Quote from g33m4k:

Gotta love this stuff... Did a lot of cleaning up of the code. Threw out the timely generation of graphs and cycle information. If anyone still wants that feature, you will have to use any version prior to this one. My personal recommendation is to use Spyder's wealth lab script. It is proven to be successful.

For this release, I would urge you to pay particular attention to the "EYEBALLA" sheet (dry humor). I've spent many weeks fine tuning and getting comfortable with the definitions and the calculus vocabulary I'm sure many passover as jargon/gibberish. Much of what you see there are key flags. Isolate and study them. Throw in GOOG for today and Nwbprop's choice for HANS & ALDN into the "EYEBALLA" sheet; Row 1, column W, and press the test button, found in cell AA. Granted, GOOG is not in our universe, but it's sequencing (synonymous for anticipation) is undeniably TEXTBOOK! I strongly urge everyone to get familiar.

I know this will help,

NJOY & Regards,
G33M4K the Newb
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I just took a look at this spreadsheet and I have to say, G33M4K, that you have done a marvelous job! The way that you have setup the plots, gives the impression that this is a standalone trading platofrom.

Great work and thanks very much for sharing it.
 
Quote from svrz:

I just took a look at this spreadsheet and I have to say, G33M4K, that you have done a marvelous job! The way that you have setup the plots, gives the impression that this is a standalone trading platofrom.

Great work and thanks very much for sharing it.
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Everyone is most welcomed and I'm just following everyone's lead. There's a reason for my persistence and continued contribution and believe it or not, it is an unintuitive but extremely advantageous facet of the PV paradigm. If we were all on the same exact page, it would only benefit our returns. LOL! We're only scratching the surface. Let's see how many layers we can peel back and incorporate.

G33M4K the Newb
 
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
EBKR - DECK - VCLK
SFCC - SHFL - RRGB
DRIV - PMTI - EAGL
HANS - CREE - NAVR
LCAV - UTHR - MTEX
DRTK - JUPM - FFIV
RSTI - PHS - KSWS
SEAC - ARTI - RIO
MRVL - CRDN - KFRC
URBN - CTSH - YHOO

Hotlist

EBKR
HANS
FFIV
JUPM
NAVR
PMTI

Watch List

NGPS - DU Cycle
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
LWAY - DU Cycle
ANIK - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
ENWV - DU Cycle
SMTS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
SINA - DU Cycle
PETD - DU Cycle
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5

SRVZ Wealth Lab Equations

BCSI
ECSI
PETD

G33M4K Scores for Above Stocks

BCSI - 7
ECSI - 4
PETD - 5

Gallas2 "Keep an Eye on These" Stock

ESMC (attached - note trendlines remain in same location as previous chart)

(VSEC, NVEC, NGPS, IDSA, HRT & LWAY have float outside normal parameters)
 
Hello:
I'd like to mention something here. I think you (all of you who contributed) have done an admirable job of decoding Mr. Hershey's "method". Also I have to say that I like the general concept of screening stock candidates and looking for those that seem to move within a specific time frame. I do have to wonder about the necessity for the many DRV calcs. It seems to me that it should be possible to choose a middle of the road general calculation of DRV and apply it to all candidates. I wonder however if the rules that you apply right before you purchase the stock (price improvement, volume, etc) have worked as well as you anticipated? Best Regards, Lefty
 
Quote from Lefty62151:

I do have to wonder about the necessity for the many DRV calcs. It seems to me that it should be possible to choose a middle of the road general calculation of DRV and apply it to all candidates.
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The concept of Dry Up Volume moving to First Rising Volume remains the "lynch pin" of the Jack Hershey Equities Method. unfortunately, no 'one' method for Dry Up Volume calculation has proved to be equivalent to Jack's "eyeball" method of DU calculation. I began this journal in an effort to uncover the 'best' method for automatic calculation. As a result, the Watch List contains numerous methods attributed to each particular equity. For over a year, I only used one method of DU Calculation. That method is located here:

http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/editsystem?id=32994

Since adding the other methods, the system generates more trading signals. I hope to determine the 'best' method based on our results within the next three months.

Quote from Lefty62151:
I wonder however if the rules that you apply right before you purchase the stock (price improvement, volume, etc) have worked as well as you anticipated?
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The vast majority of unprofitable trades can be directly attributed to NOT following the rules for entry. Attempting to 'force' a trade, determining the indicators were 'close enough,' or simply reading the chart incorrectly resulted in most of the losses I have experienced. Correcting these errors by improved use of trendlines, using indicators to exit, and monitoring along the correct time frame has corrected many of these errors. From this standpoint, yes, the rules to entry have worked as I anticipated.

However, we sometimes see a stock move significantly in price prior to reaching a volume trigger and / or prior to an indicator conformation. This is a relatively recent phenomenon (last 2 months), and one I did not anticipate. These 'early movers' represent a challenge. Determining the best way to capture these signals should significantly improve our results.

Through the process of 'iterative refinement' and from the numerous contributions of the individuals posting in the journal, what began as an attempt to uncover a superior formula has resulted in the general improvement of various aspects of the overall methodology.

I greatly appreciate the input, contributions, and effort shared by so many.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

However, we sometimes see a stock move significantly in price prior to reaching a volume trigger and / or prior to an indicator conformation.
- Spydertrader
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Are you anticipating the volume trigger at all? When we were trading online with Jack, he would calculate pro rata volume to anticipate DU volume being reached by 11:30 (2 hours into the day). For example, if volume had reached 25% of the DU value by 10am then that was considered a valid volume trigger. Likewise, 50% by 10:30 and 75% by 11am. It is not necessary to wait for volume to exceed the DU value before entry.

In many cases this will catch the price movement that you mention. :)
 
Quote from dkm:

Are you anticipating the volume trigger at all?
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I had not previously used the pro-rata calculations, but do recall Jack using them last year. Thanks for the reminder. I will attempt to use pro-rata volume beginning Monday on the next 'early mover' to see how that will improve results. Again, thanks for the heads up.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Lefty62151:

DKM:
Did you happen to observe any of Jack's DRV calculations?
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Yes I did. Jack's approach to "calculating" DU was simply an eyeball estimate. A sort of average of the minimum levels of volume over the last 6 months. I remember suggesting various percentages of the 65 day average volume but it always came back to an eyeball estimate, usually rounded to the nearest 10k or so. Entry was usually on a pro rata volume basis as I have mentioned.
 
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