Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Quick question about VSEC, I have noticed that it fails to meet the volume constraints >200k for 99% of the stocks 6 month history. In a number of posts from other threads, it has been mentioned that the 65 day volume avg should be greater than 200k in addition to all the other constraints (float, +EPS, etc...). Is this a relevant detail or does the >200k need only apply to the previous days volume (which is what stocktables reports). Otherwise, I would assume this stock is illiquid and that the cycles had occurred on unfavorable volume. Just trying to understand...
-G33M4K
The system signaled a volume breakout this morning for ENWV. We had price improvement. MACD looked good (well into the positive range), but when we checked the Stochastic Indicator to confirm the trend, we do not receive a trend confirmation. At the time of the breakout, the Stochastic hovered at the 50 mark (We look for Stochastic to be 75 or higher) and has fallen since. The probability is high that we are witnessing a False Break Out here.
Because ALL of the criteria we set at the beginning of the Journal have not been met, unfortunately, we cannot take the trade.
Checking the chart for ENWV (Attached), we notice a possible "Point Three" formation (Jack Hershey and Nwbprop). As a result, I continued to monitor this stock throughout the morning and into the afternoon.
MACD continued to fall and went into negative territory around 11:30 AM. Stochastic also continued downward hitting a low of 16.
Both Price and Volume continued decreasing as well to lows around 11:30 AM. Since that time, price has increased slightly as well as volume. In addition, MACD has been improving the past 2 hours as well as The Stochastic Indicator.
Checking Raw Data for ENWV reveals a large order (100,000 shares) right at the open:
Date Time Price Bid Ask Volume
09/30/04 09:30:57 13.05 12.90 13.05 100000
This one order exceeded Dry Up Volume for this stock. I do not believe one order makes a trend. Although this stock appeared to be the most promising of the week, we find ourselves once again, NOT taking this trade. However, we will continue to monitor this stock for the remainder of today and possibly tomorrow based on its chart.
It appears, so far at least, that following our rules has kept us out of a losing trade.
Price when Dry Up Volume Exceeded: $13.05
Current Price: $12.80
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Because ALL of the criteria we set at the beginning of the Journal have not been met, unfortunately, we cannot take the trade.
Checking the chart for ENWV (Attached), we notice a possible "Point Three" formation (Jack Hershey and Nwbprop). As a result, I continued to monitor this stock throughout the morning and into the afternoon.
MACD continued to fall and went into negative territory around 11:30 AM. Stochastic also continued downward hitting a low of 16.
Both Price and Volume continued decreasing as well to lows around 11:30 AM. Since that time, price has increased slightly as well as volume. In addition, MACD has been improving the past 2 hours as well as The Stochastic Indicator.
Checking Raw Data for ENWV reveals a large order (100,000 shares) right at the open:
Date Time Price Bid Ask Volume
09/30/04 09:30:57 13.05 12.90 13.05 100000
This one order exceeded Dry Up Volume for this stock. I do not believe one order makes a trend. Although this stock appeared to be the most promising of the week, we find ourselves once again, NOT taking this trade. However, we will continue to monitor this stock for the remainder of today and possibly tomorrow based on its chart.
It appears, so far at least, that following our rules has kept us out of a losing trade.
Price when Dry Up Volume Exceeded: $13.05
Current Price: $12.80
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
See Attached
I apologize for not seeing your question earlier. You correctly interpret Jack Hershey's methods, and 65 day average volume is a constraint when below 200,000 for inclusion into the Hot List. Jack Hershey's stocktables.com model monitors hotlisted stocks for Dry Up Volume and Break Outs. I have been monitoring Watch Listed Stocks for Dry Up Volume and Break Outs. I have posted the Hotlist simply as a means to add stocks to the 'Final Universe' list. As a result, a stock that should be excluded from either the Hot List or my Watch List can remain in the "Final Universe" list but never make it to the 'monitoring' stage. Currently, several stocks in the 'Final Universe' List fall outside normal parameters such as Float. (ESMC, HRT, IDSA, NVEC). Others, (such as VSEC) fail to meet other parameters. However, since the market is a dynamic entity, (i.e. float and avg daily volume often changes over time) I keep them in the 'Final Universe' List until such time ALL minimum criteria are met for daily monitoring. Removal from the "Final Universe" list occurs when a stock fails to achieve the five cycles in six months requirement.
Many of the stocks currently outside Float parameters are stocks that I have owned before, and as a result, profited from the trade. Jack has a list of what he calls 'tenured' stocks. Jack often treats his 'tenured' stocks differently than others.
I hope the above explanation eliminated any confusion.
- Spydertrader
Thanks Spyder. I will cross reference your response with info from other threads to see how it fits into my understanding. I appreciate your efforts.
All other NEWBIES, just trying to expedite the learning curve by providing some more convenience tools. I as said I would, I have now added charting into the Auto Scoring sheet. Nothing fancy, just ordinary excel chart sheet for our master lists. I took great effort to adjust the size, color, and characteristics to assist Newbs with your NLP. However, this is adjusted for my screen setting of 1400 x 1050... If you stare long enough at the majority of charts generated, you will begin to notice the subtle P,V relationship Jack identifies (ie. volume movement preceding price action). No need to look intently at the graphs as tho they're some stereograph, but I'm hoping that the characteristics of the graphs will help others like myself to "eyeball" the P,V cycles of the desired price trends. You will need to see it for yourself, but perhaps it's just me
. In any event, if you are really eager to see the code, it's really nothing special at all. The password is G33M4K (case sensitive) in case you desire to take apart the internals and refine for your own personal needs. To run, paste in your stocktables list and run the ScanMaster macro...NJOY & Regards,
G33M4K
Next Up...
Float, EPS+, DU1, DU2, DU3, etc...
Hopefully MACD Graphs
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