Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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From my tenured stocks. EAGL is a good candidate for a BO in this down market. Just something to watch as we have had no buys in this thread yet.
 
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GDP JUPM CNCT
FAF MRVL DHI
UPL TASR RRGB
CMTL GILD ARO
ALDN COX SNDK
SNDK URBN FMD
DHI STN DRL
CNCT JOSB YHOO
FMD CRDN ANT
ANT JBHT BKS

Hotlist:

TASR ALDN CRDN

Watch List:

TASR NVEC LWAY ANIK SWIR LSCP ALDN JUPM EVCI HANS CRDN ENWV LIFC HLEX

Of the above stocks, NVEC & LWAY fall outside the normal float parameters for 9-29-04, and therefore, should be eliminated from consideration.

- Spydertrader
 
TASR and JUPM were inadvertently added to my Watch List. They should be removed as these two stocks are NOT currently in Dry Up. I apologize for any confusion.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from gallas2:

Here are the criteria and results I use from MSN. Note -- this is not precisely JH's criteria.
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Thanks for your contribution Gallas2. I appreciate someone with your experience sharing their methods with the group. I took the liberty of correcting the following two criteria:

Avg. Daily Vol. Last Year <= 400 (changed to 400,000)
Avg. Daily Vol. Last Year >= 20 (changed to 20,000)

Running the screen with the corrected criteria creates an identical list to the one submitted by Gallas2.

Attached, please find the Gallas2.zip file. Inside is the Gallas2.IFF file containing the criteria Gallas2 listed for his Jack Hershey Screen at the MSN Deluxe Screener. After unzipping the file, simply upload the Gallas2.IFF file directly to the MSN Deluxe Screener. Make sure to upgrade to the DELUXE Screener from the NORMAL Screener before attempting to upload. The attached file had to be zipped as the MSN .IFF extensions are not currently approved for upload to ET.

- Spydertrader
 

Attachments

Watch List:

TASR NVEC LWAY ANIK SWIR LSCP ALDN JUPM EVCI HANS CRDN ENWV LIFC HLEX

Of the above stocks, NVEC & LWAY fall outside the normal float parameters for 9-29-04, and therefore, should be eliminated from consideration.

- Spydertrader [/B]
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Great thread - I hope you keep it up! Any chance of you posting the DU volume you are watching (for your daily Watch List) so we can compare it to what we are doing, especially since there are several different ways to claculate it?
 
Quote from kgharris:

Great thread - I hope you keep it up! Any chance of you posting the DU volume you are watching (for your daily Watch List) so we can compare it to what we are doing, especially since there are several different ways to calculate it?
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The discussion regarding an appropriate and quantifiable method to correctly obtain DU Volume began long ago (probably before Jack began posting on Usenet) and continues even today. I use several methods currently in an attempt to determine a 'best' method. To date, no ONE method outperforms another.

Methods for my dry up volume calculations I currently use:

1. A five day average volume before price breakout.
2. A ten day average volume before price breakout.
3. A twenty day average volume before price breakout.
4. Last low volume before price breakout.

The 20 day average closely approximates the chartscript at Wealth- lab

Other methods that have been suggested:

1. 30% of 65 day average volume - suggested by dkm
2. 'eyeball' lowest volume - suggested by Jack in his teachings
3. average lowest volume in six months

Jack advised against using the 'average lowest volume in six months' method in several of his posts.

Equations used by Jack in TC2000:

3 progressive stages of dry up:

((AVGV30 - 3 * AVGV5) > 0) AND (AVGV5 > 0)
Dry Up 1

(AVGV30 > 2 * AVGV3.6 AND AVGV30 > 2 * AVGV3) AND (AVGV3.3 - AVGV3) > 0 Dry Up 2
(AVGV30 > 2 * AVGV6.3 AND AVGV30 > 2 * AVGV3) AND (AVGV6.3 - AVGV3) > 0 Dry Up 3

FRV

(AVGV5 - AVGV30) > 1000 AND (MAXC126 - MINC126) > 0.5 * MINC126
(AVGV5 - AVGV30) > 1000

Exit conditions:

Gainers Over Yesterday Between 5% and 10% Inc.
((C - C1) / C1) * 100 > 5 AND ((C - C1) / C1) * 100 < 10
Gainers Over Yesterday Greater than 10%
((C - C1) / C1) * 100 > 10

Stage 1 or Stage 3
(H30 < 1.1 * L5) AND (H5 < 1.1 * L30)

Stage 2 or Stage 4
((MAXC126 - MINC126) / MINC126) * 100

Gappers
L > H1 OR H < L1 AND V > 1000 OR (C * V) > 2500

Quote from Jack Hershey on Usenet:

Before i buy the lists of stocks comes from the following three equations:

1. ((AvgV30)-3*AvgV5))>0 AND (AvgV5>0)
2. (AvgV30>Avg3.6 AND AvgV30>2Avg3) AND (AvgV3.3 - AvgV3) > 0
3. 9AvgV30> 2*AvgV6.3 AND AvgV30 > 2* AvgV3) AND
(AvgV6.3 - AvgV)>0

the day i buy the stocks appear on the following equation lists:

5. AvgV5 - AvgV30 > 1000 AND (MaxC126 - MinC126) > .5* MinC126
6. AvgV5 - AvgV30 > 1000.

before stocks peak to me sold they appear on these two equation lists:

7. ((C - C2)/ C2)*100 > 5 AND ((C - C2)/ C2)*100 > 10
8. ((C - C2)/ C2)*100 > 10.
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I think dkm sums it up best in this quote from another thread:

Quote from dkm:
I have discussed this many times with Jack. There is no formula for DU. All of the above are attempts to define it, and all are equally valid. The principle is simple - a significant reduction of volume, leading to a contraction of price bars and a subsequent breakout.
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Rather than providing dry up values and posting them to the journal, I hope individuals will test out various methods for calculating dry up volume - either any of those listed, or other methods obtained from another source. The methods I use do not currently signal a trade every day. Perhaps, someone will determine a BETTER method for dry up calculation that does signal a trade each day.

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from nwbprop:

Here is a chart for the right to left traverse of EAGL.
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Where can I learn more about rules for drawing the channels? Just do a search on your name?
 
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