Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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Hi Makosqu

You bring up some interesting points.

1) I briefly used TC2000 in 1999 with these set of equations. It did not result in anything meaningful for me.

2) Eliiot Wave: IMHO, this technique is way too error prone. I have spoken to one traders who uses Fib levels exclusively and does very well. She also uses Gatley patterns quite a bit.

3) The Usenet post that you referenced, makes some interesting points. JH once mentioned that you can use linear regression as a 'pin wheel' to easily buy and sell any stock. The Usenet post mentioned slope of the MACD and its signal as reliable buy and sell sginals. Well, one way to obtain the slope of a curve is to use LR. Hmmm. :)

Take care for now.
 
Quote from svrz:

Hi Makosqu

You bring up some interesting points.

1) I briefly used TC2000 in 1999 with these set of equations. It did not result in anything meaningful for me.

2) Eliiot Wave: IMHO, this technique is way too error prone. I have spoken to one traders who uses Fib levels exclusively and does very well. She also uses Gatley patterns quite a bit.

3) The Usenet post that you referenced, makes some interesting points. JH once mentioned that you can use linear regression as a 'pin wheel' to easily buy and sell any stock. The Usenet post mentioned slope of the MACD and its signal as reliable buy and sell sginals. Well, one way to obtain the slope of a curve is to use LR. Hmmm. :)

Take care for now.
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Thanks SVRZ,

I thought about Elliott Waves based on Jack's channels which fits in rather nicely into the concept since the diagonals across the parellograms (channels) reveal interesting things when viewed as sides of an Elliott Wave... I'll see where it all leads to if anything.

As far as LR, I was actually able to use LR with the 1 bar change in P against 1 bar change in V and found that the relation ot be remarkably linear (phew..., this is a significant step). I am an intuition person and thus my investigations are as such. You can check for yourself and it holds for any fractal level. I chose an EOD fractal. I took each BAR and generated three trends using OHLC. Thus from each EOD bar, there are a few orientations that the trends can occur, I reckon that the fractal bar's trend is either

1) i-{O->H}; ii-{H->L}; iii-{L->C}
OR
2) i-{O->L}; ii-{L->H}; iii-{H->C}

Anywho, from this and a few other additional technical intuition Vol assumptions, I created a scatterplot to eyeball linearity (statistical significance). I've attached it below for techies who may be interested in noting that the regression is both apparent and in fact linear (regressions need not be linear, being linear greatly simplifies things)... Each scatter point is taken as an independent datapoint (meaning we can nearly generate a stocks series given 1 point, and its signed net vol). There's a wealth of information that can be furthur extrapolated, but I will refrain from posting until I can boil it down to something meaningful and simple.

Kind Regards,
G33M4K
 

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Quote from makosgu:


gallas2, if I may request, I would greatly appreciate if you could provide/post an anotated chart of an equity that I could learn from so that I can focus on what needs to be eyeballed. As you had covincingly mentioned, there's only so much than can be quantified. I am quickly spending time that can be better used for capital appreciation as I am now anticipating taking the plunge.

Regards & NJOY
G33M4K - Newb
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R U trading real money? I ask because you say "now anticipating taking the plunge".

Keep size very small if you are starting (half as small as you think is too small). There will be lots of trains leaving stations for years to come. You need lightening fast entry (years of video games finally paying off...lol) and exits. U will find trade should work almost immediately once FRV is hit. If not get out. I am risk averse -- rather miss 5 good trades than get cratered once.

Results will be chunky. Best advice is to not trade unless everything lines up. Do nothing and keep your emotional account in tact when set-ups aren't easy to find.

I started trading this way in '99 and thought I'd missed the boat by Sept. when I started using real money (after 3 months of reading and watching). Paid for an SUV by March '00 and sat on my hands for a long time after that watching friends get smoked. Saw a guy take 450k to 7 mill and blow up sitting 20 feet away from me. This year I've seen a guy go from 600k to 270 back to 400 in the past 6 months.

My makeup is not suited to this type of equity swing. I can't handle the drawdowns emotionally. (I'm also Irish and fairly close to the penny). I also suggest reading a lot about psychological edges (Trading in the Zone - Douglass) and Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness").

WITTS is that you have to find the approach that fits you. I have two free home-runs right now that truly allow me to take small losses very easily (see attached).
 

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Quote from gallas2:

R U trading real money? I ask because you say "now anticipating taking the plunge".
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Absolutely real money (account is set up with real play money that I can easily replace/fund from my day job should all be lost). I've been pulling the simulation trigger on the trading platform regularly so hopefully the gut check will be less painful.


Keep size very small if you are starting (half as small as you think is too small). There will be lots of trains leaving stations for years to come. You need lightening fast entry (years of video games finally paying off...lol) and exits. U will find trade should work almost immediately once FRV is hit. If not get out. I am risk averse -- rather miss 5 good trades than get cratered once.
More...

Couldn't agree more. Here in NYC, subway conductors are always saying "There's another train right behind this one"... I've tacked this phrase next to my desktop for psychological reasons.

Thanks for the chart. Looks great and shows the items we're particularly interested in clearly. I appreciate it and good trading...

Regards,
G33M4K
 
Sevens Ones Zeros
WOOF - PETD - CCBI
SRDX - PENN - JBHT
GTRC - DDR - NAVR
CNCT - ARO - CREE
CTXS - NIHD - PPDI
EWBC - PAAS - TS
CTSH - URBN - HTLD
SHFL - WSM - CLE
TKC - CYTC - RIO
DECK - PMTI - FFIV

Hot List:

PMTI
NAVR
PETD

Watch List:


TASR - DU Cycle
HRT - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
IDSA - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
UBET - DU Cycle - DU5
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ANIK - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
SWIR - DU Cycle - DU5
HANS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
EVCI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
PETD - DU Cycle
LSCP - DU Cycle

(NVEC, IDSA & LWAY have float outide normal parameters)

Wealth Lab Equations:

ESMC
HANS
HRT
IDSA
TRMM
UBET
VSEC

Score Above:

ESMC - 0
HANS - 0
HRT - 5
IDSA - 0
TRMM - 2
UBET - 0
VSEC - 0
 
Hello All

I created a flowchart of Hershey Stock selection criteria which is based on Spydrtrader's excellent description.

I thought this may help us all in understanding the process better.

The flowchart is in Visio 2003 format. If you don't have Visio, you can download the Visio 2003 Viewer from MS:

http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/...5C-FED1-46CF-BD53-DA23635AB2DF&displaylang=en

After installation, you can view this file with your IE.

Any comments or criticism is welcome. :)

Take care and I hope this chart is useful.
 

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Even though IDSA falls OUTSIDE the FLOAT parameters discussed by Jack Hershey, it remains a tenured stock. As such, Jack has been known to break the rules with his tenured stocks. IDSA triggered a buy signal almost immediately after the open this morning:

10/25/04 09:33:52 11.00 11.00 11.00 1800

MACD: .0025
Stoch: 75.0019

Actual Volume exceeded calculated Dry Up Volume around 9:34 AM. Since we had price improvement, and our indicators fell within correct parameters, we enter a long position on IDSA. Using the 'money management' guidelines previously discussed in this thread, we determine 1818 shares as a maximum (rounding down to 1800 to avoid buying "odd Lots.")

Target Price: $12.10
Stop Loss: $10.45

IDSA reached our target price a little after 2:00 PM resulting in a sale at $12.13.

10/25/04 14:10:23 12.13 12.07 12.32 1800

According to the chart (see attached), it would appear that we have room to run in regards to continued price improvement on IDSA. However, since we reached our target price, we won't allow greed to affect our trading.

In regards to UBET, The email sent by the quotetracker program failed to reach my mobile phone while on holiday. Evidently, Sprint experienced system problems during the week unknown to me until after my return. As a result, I still own the shares of UBET. However, for scoring purposes of this journal, I plan to document the trade as a loss. Had I received the email, I would have sold. Even if the ultimate result of the UBET trade results in a gain for my account, scoring the trade as such would skew the results.

I appreciate the contributions made to the journal in my absence, and I believe many found the discussions to be helpful. As always, I continue to encourage participation.

Thanks again for your interest.

- Spydertrader
 

Attachments

Sevens - Ones - Zeros
IAIA - HDWR - PPDI
MTXX - PETD - JUPM
IDSA - PMTI - PAAS
CNCT - URBN - SHFL
KNGT - UPL - EAGL
EWBC - CMTL - CRDN
CNC - CREE - CYTC
VRNT - DPTR - TASR
CTSH - RIO - BR
TKC - PENN - YHOO

Hotlist

TASR
IDSA
PMTI
JUPM
PETD

Watchlist

HRT - DU Cycle - DU5
ESMC - DU Cycle - DU5
NVEC - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
UBET - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
IDSY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
CALM - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10
LWAY - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ANIK - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
SWIR - DU Cycle - DU5
TRMM - DU Cycle - DU5
HANS - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
EVCI - DU Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
SMTS - DU Cycle - DU5
LSCP - DU Cycle

(HRT, NVEC & LWAY have float outside normal parameters)

Wealth Lab Equations

ESMC
HANS
HRT
TRMM
VSEC

Score for Above

ESMC - 3
HANS - 7
HRT - 7
TRMM - 1
VSEC - 0
 
Actual volume failed to exceed calculated dry up volume prior to our 11:00 AM time frame for each of our Watch List stocks. As a result, we take no trades today. UBET moved slightly up in price today, and we continue to hold these shares. Keep a watchful eye on ESMC (See attached chart) over the next few days. A tenured stock, ESMC tends to follow the DU Volume - FRV paradigm pretty closely.

- Spydertrader
 

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Thanks for the outstanding work, Spydrtrader. I look forward to reading your posts and analzying the list of stocks that you post, every night.
 
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