Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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Using the Wealth lab Chart Scripts created by srvz, the following stocks appear to have various levels of Dry Up Volume.

ESMC - du2
HANS - du1 - du2 - du3
SWIR - du3
TASR - du1 - du3
TRMM - du1 - du2
UBET - du1 - du2

The Chart Scripts srvz created resulted from translating Jack Hershey's seven TC2000 equations posted by dkm in misc.invest.technical on USENET (See Tiny URL in srvz post above). I only scanned the 33 stocks in our final universe list to arrive at the above list of Dry Up Stocks.

Using the Master List with Scoring created by g33m4k, scores for the above listed stocks are as follows:

ESMC - 0
HANS - 2
SWIR - 4
TASR - 0
TRMM - 2
UBET - 7

While The Chart Scripts currently require additional testing and analysis to determine their exact function and use, on the surface, it appears as if srvz has provided us a useful tool to add to The Hershey Toolbox.

In a never ending effort to improve performance, I will continue to monitor the results of these methods in addition to the current set of criteria I use in the Journal. As always, contributions are appreciated and encouraged.

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
 
The system generated no signals today as volume remained low on our watch list stocks. Continuing to monitor UBET, we see price dropped a few pennies from yesterday on low volume to this point. We will continue to monitor UBET and the other stocks derived from The Newly created Chart Scripts throughout the day.

- Spydertrader
 
Sevens - Ones - Zeros
PPDI - TASR - IMH
DDN - URBN - KNGT
ADS - ARTI - TNP
GIVN - PENN - RRGB
GDP - CRDN - TRMB
SIE - DPTR - ELNK
BSTE - CFC - MRVL
PETD - HRT - FFIV
EAGL - INSP - UPL
TRMB - CYTC - CTSH

Hot List:

TASR
HRT
DPTR
CRDN
PETD

Watch List

TASR - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
HRT - Du Cycle - DU5
NVEC - Du Cycle - DU5
IDSA - Du Cycle - DU5
UBET - Du Cycle
IDSY - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
LWAY - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ANIK - Du Cycle
SWIR - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
ALDN - Du Cycle - DU5
DPTR - Du Cycle - DU5
HANS - Du Cycle
CRDN - Du Cycle
EVCI - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
LIFC - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
NAVR - Du Cycle
ENWV - Du Cycle
SMTS - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10 - DU20
HLEX - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10
LSCP - Du Cycle - DU5 - DU10

(HRT, NVEC, IDSA & LWAY have float outside normal parameters)

Wealth Lab Seven Hershey Equations Dry Up Stocks:

ESMC - DU2
HANS - DU1 - DU2 - DU3
IDSA - DU1
SWIR - DU2 - DU3
TASR - DU1 - DU3
TRMM - DU1 - DU3
UBET - DU1

Scores for the above stocks using Master List with Scoring v.18.xls:

ESMC - 2
HANS - 2
IDSA - 5
SWIR - 2
TASR - 0
TRMM - 2
UBET - 4
 
Apologies for my quietness... I've been doing an extreme amount of homework and due diligence regarding putting pieces together. A few may disagree with version 19 but I will be more than willing to discuss ad nauseum the mechanics, and how evrything fits together conceptually. Version 19 is not complete, but it will be many steps forward. Eventually, I will apply aesthetics so that one can actually watch the transitions day to day. But I'm getting way ahead of myself right now. Too much to code right now given that I am limiting myself to raw materials (ie. nothing more than a spreadsheet)...

Let me preface everything here by saying I am looking for 1 thing at this point, MAXIMUM money velocity. Velocity is a derivative, in our case a rate of price change with respect to change in time. The mathematical derivative here is extremely important to having the ability to anticipate. No one seams to be discussing it so I am bringing it up and hopefully I can get answers. Otherwise, I'll slip back into a pseudo solo effort.

So why am I trying to stress the use of the derivative of PVA/D as another tool. Simple! Money Velocity. I position myself as though I am participating in a racing game, the objective of the racing game I play is to accumulate the most points. 1 Point is earned for 1 Distance unit traveled. For us, our distance is Price. Thus using the fastest car ensures us the best use of time to achieve the greatest distance/points/price accumulation possible as set by the game/market. If everyone is in our car, it is irrelevant, we all remain at the top of the leader board with an even greater reward thanks to PV. Surprisingly, everyone jumping into the car speeds the car up. Think about it w.r.t. the PV relationhsip.

It seams, many investors limit themselves to a few cars which at times are sluggish. Many investors are jaded because they see they have alot of points but don't consider the best way to accumulate points in this race. We will think outside of the box and look at the entire race by simply hopping in to whichever vehicle is traveling with the greatest velocity at each instant/time period depending on one's own preference. We are measuring the speed of our equity vehicle as the rate of price change (Money Velocity). Many expansions on this can be made to deepen comprehension. Hopefully, I will be able to extrapolate the most important.

Just as an example, price is a discrete time function I identify as P[t] (bracket notation to keep track of the fact that the price function is discrete). Our function P[t] has a derivative P'[t] which is the rate of price change for each fractal instant t. Pulling up ANY graph of a function and it's derivative (one on top of the other), one thing pops out from the graphs.

The peaks of the derivative function, P'[t], tell us the exact points on the original function, P[t], where there is the maximum amount between two instants. THIS IS NO ACCIDENT for all the 5th graders out here and may require some pre-calc! The crossing over by P'[t] from positive to negative tell us EXACTLY where a relative price peak has occured I will explain this at some point later if people inquire. Using the troughs and peaks of P'[t] we realize why we want to "buy late and exit early" and this is UNARGUABLY, as efficent as any investor/trader could ever hope to be if in fact one could observe all equity vehicles simultaneously.

Using derivatives, this maximum rate of price change (maximum money velocity) will occur exactly at the peaks of P'[t] for long investors. How does this tie in to buying late exiting early? Essentially, since the duration of the race is as long as there are markets, the winner is defined as the current leader and thus this supposed "HOLY GRAIL" will CONTINUOUSLY in real time capture all of these points from across the entire range of EQUITY vehicles since this is the most winning strategy. As far as I can tell, no one could possibly have done this or even come close, but nonetheless, we strive. Let me explain. At any fractal instant there is an equity or a set of equities which has the highest rate of price change in the market. Since we earn points by simply accumulating price distance, we use buying late, exiting early as our reminder of our race strategy. Thus we at all times choose and switch into the fastest equity vehicle amongst our culled FINAL UNIVERSE of vehicles. This is what will separate beginners from intermediates undoubtedly... I am still a beginner who hasn't jumped into a single vehicle as of yet, but the relationship is extraordinarily clear and simple.

So the question now remains how do we find the fastest vehicles given our final universe of equity vehicles. Since our vehicles are in continual motion, we need to observe this price change rate (derivative of the prices aka Money Velocity) of the equity vehicles we are observing. Because of our PV relation, I am also interested in velocity. But firstly what's the discrete time math for a derivative. I'm assuming I can take Riemann's or Newton's approach on a non-finite level. After reading thru hundreds of pages of threads MACD seams to be a recurring approach. I'm sure many are using indicators because they were either informed to or have NLP's validating that they work. However, excellence we'll require us to understand how to calibrate these items as the market dictates/shifts/globalizes/etc... There is a subtle difference between a MACD(5,13,6) and MACD(5,12,6) but how does the market tell me which one to use. I am eager to work out how to differentiate and calibrate as needed. Results should not tell us that we need to recalibrate, since that type of approach is costly. The important question here is why MACD and is it a derivative...

G33M4K still a Newb

PS... This is all a verbalization of
Jack's equity strategy.
 
Quote from makosgu:

The important question here is why MACD and is it a derivative...
More...

Hopefully, the following post provides some clarification regarding your question.

Quote from billzrok:



The MACD(5,13,6)

The purpose of the MACD(5,13,6) is to help ensure that the price is beginning a new trend. The exponential moving average sizes are 5 and 13, thus the longer one include 8 additional 5-minute bars.

If these were Simple MA’s rather than Exponential MA’s, we could say the SMA5 contained 25 minutes of data, and that the SMA13 contained 65 minutes of data. In this case, for any type of divergence to be "up", the SMA5 would have to be "higher" than the portion of the SMA13 that lied in its 8 extra bars. To put it simply, the average over the most recent 25 minutes must be higher than the average of the 40 minutes that preceded it. If there was a divergence "up", we could compare it to its own SMA6 and use the difference as the MACD’s histogram. This is what we would be doing if MACD’s were constructed using SMA’s. Except their not.

Exponential Moving Averages give more weight to more recent data. Ironically, they also include all available data (when constructed properly). If you had 100 points of data, and constructed an EMA5 - it would still use all 100 points of data. It’s important to remember this when thinking of EMA’s.

Aside from the difference between SMA’s and EMA’s, the MACD functions as described earlier. It makes sure the "recent" price is, on average, higher than the "non-recent" price. "Recent" being defined by about 25 minutes.

The Stochastic(14,1,3)

The purpose of the Stochastic(14,1,3) is to make sure recent closes are within the top 20% of the last 70 minutes trading range (when going long). Stochastics compare the close to the highest high and lowest low within a time period, our 14 bars of 5 minutes gives 70 minutes to compare the most recent close to. The 3 parameter means "slow line" and is the average of the last stochastic points - which is 15 minutes worth of time. A summary would be: The average of the last 3 closes over the last 15 minutes - must be in the top 20% of the range defined by the high and low of the last 70 minutes.

What does having the stochastic in top 20% do? It makes sure the trend change identified by the MACD has been continuing within the last 15 minutes. The MACD could be fooled by a gap up followed by a slow descent. The stochastic makes sure the recent closes are higher, rather than lower.

Combined:

The MACD identifies a potential new trend, then the Stochastic confirms it.
More...

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
 
Actual volume failed to exceed calculated Dry Up Volume on any of our Watch List stocks again today. As a result, we take no action. Since MACD and Stochastic remain positive on UBET, we hold our shares.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from makosgu:

...
So why am I trying to stress the use of the derivative of PVA/D as another tool. Simple! Money Velocity. I position myself as though I am participating in a racing game, the objective of the racing game I play is to accumulate the most points. 1 Point is earned for 1 Distance unit traveled. For us, our distance is Price. Thus using the fastest car ensures us the best use of time to achieve the greatest distance/points/price accumulation possible as set by the game/market. If everyone is in our car, it is irrelevant, we all remain at the top of the leader board with an even greater reward thanks to PV. Surprisingly, everyone jumping into the car speeds the car up. Think about it w.r.t. the PV relationhsip.
...
More...

LOL... Jack was very subtle in a genius way. COATTAILING is a great way to increase the speed of the car, and correctly so. This is why having a physical broker has it's benefit. PV. Think about it...

G33M4K Newb & Luvin It!
 
Quote from nwbprop:

Here is a chart with channels for UBET.
More...

My hats off to you. You clearly are a master of being on the right side of the channel. Great Chart...

G33M4K the Newb
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Hopefully, the following post provides some clarification regarding your question.



I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
More...


Thanks Spyder. The posting seams to say that the indicator will smooth out the price graph. Thus I will still be looking at either a Price or relative Price value... Y/N? Can anyone enlighten? If in fact MACD is a smoothing function, perhaps we can look at the rate of change of MACD... Does anyone have any light?


G33M4K the Newb

PS
G33M4K is pronounced G-MAK (hacker spelling/convention)
I am not a hacker... My coworkers call me this because they're
credit traders and see the ticker GMAC all the time and it's similar
to my actual name. Like the credit, I hate it but it makes a great
alias....
 
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