Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal

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2005-04-29, Friday - Update

The following commentary pertains to the use of The Jack Hershey Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology as described in previous posts. As previously indicated, this automated culling methodology remains in the development and testing phase. As a result, I have taken no trades based on these methods - irrespective of signal generation.

This morning I monitored two lists of stocks (16 total equities): Those equities finding themselves "In Dry Up" and and the remaining equities from this morning's Hot List (not "In Dry Up").

Dry Up Stocks

DCAI ELOS EZPW JUPM MFLX PARL TASR XXIA

Remaining Hot List Stocks

FORD GDP MCRI SNDA TRGL USG

Our system generated six possible trade signals from the list of eight Dry Up Stocks when actual volume exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume prior to 11:30 AM.

Dry Up Stocks Triggering Signal

DCAI ELOS EZPW JUPM PARL XXIA

Dry Up Stocks NOT Triggering Signal

MFLX TASR

Of the six signals generated, five of the equities failed to show price improvement (DCAI EZPW JUPM PARL XXIA), and as a result, found themselves eliminated from further consideration.

ELOS did show price improvement and met all criertia at time of signal generation.

Time: 11:11 AM
Price: 28.02
MACD: +.1011
Stoch: 83.4287
Score: 2
FRV: 303,000 shares

For the six Remaining Hot List Stocks, we also witnessed the generation of numerous possible trade signals - five in all. I have outlined these signals below.

No Signal

SNDA

The following equities triggered a trade signal when actual volume exceeded calculated "Low Band" Dry Up Volume. However, we eliminated them from further consideration based on the reasons outlined below.

No Price Improvement

GDP

Negative MACD Parameters

MCRI TRGL

Failed Stochastic Confirmation

FORD USG

I hope you find the above information useful.

- Spydertrader
 
Spydertrader,

As I follow your new approach to hershey closely I had in my preparation for ELOS

Upper Band 136.972
Average DU 91.400
Lower Band 45.828
FRV 274.200
Peak 605.520

I used your Wealthlab chartscripts and CSI Data.
Do we have identical values?

Concerning possible shorts with new method, how would you define the setup?

Concerning Wealthlab I think there must be a method of reading the stocktables/qcharts symbols by the chartscript (maybe erverything in one) and write the symbols to a csv or txt type of file with the results like Upper Band, Average DU, Lower Band , FRV and Peak.

I think file reading and writing no problem. But I think to call all symbols in a loop and executing the code I never tried and I don´t know if it is possible?

Best regards, Helmut

PS: Did you take any hershey old or new trades??
 
Quote from hpeganz:

I used your Wealthlab chartscripts and CSI Data. Do we have identical values?
More...

While not exactly the same, the resulting minor differences in DU Volume calculations would not have prevented you from trading the signal.

Quote from hpeganz:

Concerning possible shorts with new method, how would you define the setup?
More...

Actual Volume exceeding calculated Dry Up Volume prior to 11:30 AM, Price Below the previous day close, Negative MACD Histogram, Stochastics below 20.

Quote from hpeganz:

Concerning Wealthlab I think there must be a method of reading the stocktables/qcharts symbols by the chartscript (maybe erverything in one) and write the symbols to a csv or txt type of file with the results like Upper Band, Average DU, Lower Band , FRV and Peak.
More...

Dr. Koch wrote a bit of code on this very idea and has posted several Chartscripts on the Wealth-Lab.com web site utilizing the technique.

Quote from hpeganz:

I think file reading and writing no problem. But I think to call all symbols in a loop and executing the code I never tried and I don´t know if it is possible?
More...

It is possible to 'fetch' data from a database using Wealth-Lab Developer. I do not know if the same function is available for chartscripts running on the Wealth-lab.com web site.


Quote from hpeganz:

Did you take any hershey old or new trades??
More...

No Hershey Trades today (either old or new), but I plan to begin to actually trade the new methods within the next two weeks.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-05-02, Monday - Lists

Hershey Wealth-Lab Chartscript Culling Methodology
Hershey Chartscript Scans / Qcharts Culling / Stocktables.com Sort

Hot List

DCAI ELOS FORD GDP MCRI MFLX SNDA TRGL USG XXIA

Dry Up Stocks

DCAI MCRI MFLX SNDA SYNA TASR TOPT

Hot List Stocks Scores

DCAI - 2
ELOS - 7
FORD - 2
GDP - 0
MCRI - 4
MFLX - 7
SNDA - 5
TRGL - 4
USG - 5
XXIA - 2

Dry Up Stocks Scores

DCAI - 2
MCRI - 4
MFLX - 7
SNDA - 5
SYNA - 0
TASR - 0
TOPT - 4

Keep an Eye on These Stocks

MCRI (Attached)

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=739685>
 

Attachments

Spydertrader,


I got in my preparation an identical Hot List but different

Dry Up Stocks:

DCAI MFLX SNDA SYNA TASR TOPT

Could this be caused by different data provider???

Best regards, Helmut
 
Quote from hpeganz:

Could this be caused by different data provider???
More...

By using the automated scans or chartscripts, I create my list of Dry Up Stocks out of all stocks in the Hot List and in the Final Universe List which have an actual volume less than calculated "High Band" Dry Up Volume. If you use the same automated methods and still arrive at different results, then most likely, these slight variances can be attributed to differences in data providers.

- Spydertrader
 
2005-05-02, Monday - Update

I'll be out of town and unable to post over the next few days. I plan to resume posting later in the week. Until then, feel free to post any questions, comments, lists or other contributions in my absence. Good trading to all.

- Spydertrader
 
Oky doky, now I will try for the first time to use the method step by step. Actually it is important for me to UNDERSTAND what happens before I can suggest any improvements...

So what did I do?

I went to stocktables.com and built a list with RS > 90 and EPS > 80 which looks like this:

AEIS AEOS AMHC SNDA SRDX ULTI USG USNA UTHR VMSI VPI WWCA XXIA APCS BUCY CEDC CHTT CMTL AAPL ACI ADSK AFFX ANIK ACU ADEX AIR ALDA ANGO ANST ARD ASEI ASPM BBSI BDMS BEBE CCJ CELG CMN CNS CPL CRNS CTSH CUTR CYCL CYH DATA DCAI DHC DHI DIOD EEFT ELOS FNDT FTO GDP GEHL GIL GLW HDB HEP HOLX HRT HUM HWK IPS IRIS ISRG ISSC JLG JOYG JQH KOSP KTII LAN LB LCAV LCBM LFL LI LIFC LQU LSCP MACR MCRI MCRS MDRX MFLX MKTAY MSB MTEX MW NNI NSS NXTP PGIC POPEZ PRGS PTC PTEN PTRY QSII RG SFSW SGK SLI SNHY SPTN STAN TIE TNH TRGL TRMD TU UHCO UNAM VHI VLCCF VLG VSEC

Then I opened the "cull stocktables.xls" and after inserting a new column I isolated the symbols which do not meet the criteria EPS, float and avg volume. My list now looks like this:

AMHC SNDA USG USNA UTHR VMSI VPI XXIA BUCY CEDC CHTT CMTL BEBE CMN CYCL DCAI DHC EEFT ELOS FTO GDP HOLX IPS ISRG JLG KOSP LCAV LIFC LSCP MCRI MCRS MDRX MFLX MTEX MW NSS PGIC PRGS PTRY TIE TRGL VLCCF

Now I create a watchlist in wealth-lab and run the Hershey SCAN script, which reduces the symbols to this list:

DCAI ELOS GDP MCRI MFLX SNDA TRGL USG XXIA

Now I let with that list the script Hershey Equities Dry Up Volume run and get this result:

DCAI ELOS MFLX XXIA

As I understood it, the ranks do not matter so I have got these four stocks now and I have got to wait and see if at 10:30 ET 50 % of the Average DU or the Lower Band is reached or exceeded, right?

That would mean:

DCAI 47.001
ELOS 45.828
MFLX 49.899
XXIA 147.121

I know that there is one mistake: I haven't included a final universe list as I haven't got any. Spydertrader, could you do me the favor and print your final universe list once a day to make sure I can learn the method correctly?

So, question: Have I got it right or not? What are my mistakes? After I have learned the method and come to the same results as you guys, I will surely make suggestions to improve it.

Thanks for your help.

Odelys
 
Current Final Universe List

BCSI COGT DCAI ELOS EXM EZPW FORD GDP HANS JUPM MCRI MFLX PARL SGTL SIGM SNDA SYNA TASR TOPT TRGL UBET USG XXIA

The list only changes if one of the stocks above fails to maintain rank, eps, float or average daily volume parameters. Also, a stock could find itself added to the above list if it makes our daily Hot List. Thusfar, it appears as if you have followed the steps involved correctly.

I head out of town shortly, but plan to respond to your posts upon my return.

- Spydertrader
 
Fine!

Now I go through my folder where I downloaded everything from these 165 pages of the journal and found the "wealth-lab equations" as described on page #51.

After running this, I get two signals for XXIA as of today: FRV1 and Frv #2.

As I can see, XXIA did not reach FRV volume as of yesterday, so what do these signals tell me?
 
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