Thank you, Spydertrader! I did not trade VPHM this time, but I did learn a lot from you!
Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II
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The FRV envelope falls within the same two standard deviations from the mean as described for Low Band Dry Up Volume Calculations in Journal One. I moved to using Low Band Dry Up Volume (LBDU) after considering that Dry Up Volume results from a range of numbers. Jack, after all, calculated Dry Up Volume by 'eyeballing' bulked charts at the clearstation.com web site. Statistically, LBDU falls 2 standard deviations outside Average Dry Up Volume. Since FRV = 3 * DU, then it only makes sense that FRV would have an equally wide envelope. If we use Average Dry Up Volume to calculate FRV for VPHM, then clearly, actual volume for VPHM did not exceed FRV by EOD. Average Dry Up Volume for VPHM calculated at around 600,000 shares. However, if we use LBDU Volume (300,000 shares), then actual Volume for VPHM did exceed FRV levels by EOD. Another example has actual volume for VPHM on Thursday at around 500,000 shares. Actual Volume for VPHM on Friday shows about 1.5 million shares traded. A three fold increase in volume occurred between Thursday and Friday. Such an increase follows the spirit of the FRV rule, while ignoring the letter of the FRV rule.
I hope that helped.
- Spydertrader
I apologize Spytrader won't happen again!!!
New to this journal thing and didn't mean to upset you..My bad.
sincerely $CostAverageMAN
New to this journal thing and didn't mean to upset you..My bad.
sincerely $CostAverageMAN
Yes, very helpful thankyou!
I'm still putting bounds on what's flexible and what's not in this discipline.
Clearly one principle that isn't flexible is that a volume breakout must occur after a dry volume period. This volume breakout must be significant: a multiple of 2 or 3.
I'm still putting bounds on what's flexible and what's not in this discipline.
Clearly one principle that isn't flexible is that a volume breakout must occur after a dry volume period. This volume breakout must be significant: a multiple of 2 or 3.
If you missed the After Hours Trades on VPHM, you'll be happy to know the outcome - $21.73 USD (compared to the $21.40 close at 4:00 PM Eastern Time). Also, keep in mind VPHM reports earnings scheduled to start Tuesday, February 28, 2006, 10:00 AM Eastern Time.
- Spydertrader
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Dry Up Stocks
BTUI DXPE ENG FORD IIJI MTEX NGAS NWRE SFCC SIRF TIE TXCO
- Spydertrader
BTUI DXPE ENG FORD IIJI MTEX NGAS NWRE SFCC SIRF TIE TXCO
- Spydertrader
I sold all shares (400) of VPHM this morning.
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=994075>
- Spydertrader
<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=994075>
MTEX hit lower band around 10:00 but was apparently due to a single big order. MACD and Stoch looked good but I'm leary of this one.
Why'd you bail early from VPHM spyder?
Why'd you bail early from VPHM spyder?
Jack has often recommended avoiding stocks which have these large block orders. As I have indicated in the past, I avoid block trades as well. A single order does not a trend make.
The price action this morning looked to me like the gap was filling. I can always jump back in if the trend reverses and starts to head higher.
- Spydertrader
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