Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

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My first 'real' trade.

Entered NGAS at 10.41.
Stop at 9.89

Dry up (PDV = Previous Day's Volume) reached by 11am. Stoch > 80 and MACD > 0 at time of entry.

BOOM I considered as another candidate (Stoch & MACD were good as was volume growth through the day), but was discarded as I didn't register it as in Dry-Up the previous day.

I am using 5 different methods of calculating Dry-Up, why try and choose a single one when it appears there is no 'one' best method? If any of the Dry-Up calcuations trigger, then I review the stock.
 

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Quote from mischief:

My first 'real' trade.

Entered NGAS at 10.41.
Stop at 9.89

Dry up (PDV = Previous Day's Volume) reached by 11am. Stoch > 80 and MACD > 0 at time of entry.

BOOM I considered as another candidate (Stoch & MACD were good as was volume growth through the day), but was discarded as I didn't register it as in Dry-Up the previous day.

I am using 5 different methods of calculating Dry-Up, why try and choose a single one when it appears there is no 'one' best method? If any of the Dry-Up calcuations trigger, then I review the stock.
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mischief,

I too was following NGAS but did not get an entry signal that met the conditions Spyder set out in his summary of the method. You mentioned 11am; is that EST or CST? Also I did not see NGAS reaching 10.41 until after 1:50pm EST and it did not go below 10.0 after that point, so I don't see how your trade could have transpired.

My chart is attached.

Doug
 

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Sorry Doug, my post was a bit all over the place.

Times are EST (i.e. NY time). I live in Australia, so it was around 7:00 am for me.

I entered the trade at 7:07 am, which was 3:07pm EST.

I reviewed the trade in the morning (my time) and noticed that it had exceeded DU Volume (which was the previous days volume) prior to 11.00am and had trended nicely since then. When I looked to enter the trade, the Stoch was > 80 and MACD > 0.

In one of the Hershey documents I read that FRV was considered 2 - 3 x DUV. Since the volume was over 2 x the previous days volume and all other signs were good, I entered the trade.

I'm in the black by a princely 0.03 according to IB, so we'll see how we go from here.

The other stock I liked the look of was FORD. If you look at the daily chart, it appears to have a lot of support at 8.40. The MACD and Stoch looked good in the late afternoon EST, but the volume simply wasn't there. Today was still a dry up day by my calculations so it will be interesting to see what happens to it tomorrow.

Finally, BOOM looked interesting from an intraday action, but wasn't in dry up the previous day so I didn't enter.

One thing I have learnt from Spyder's experience is the benefits of discipline, which I have lacked somewhat in the past. FORD & BOOM clearly didn't have the volume action and so I didn't enter.
 
My understanding is that there's no "magic" dry-up formula.

Spydertrader defaulted to a formula based on his best experience. This is easier to handle, and easier to automate.

Jack recommends an eye-balling of it: over the last 6 month, the volume level that is too low to move the stock, and this will be a different number (and percentage) for each stock, even for the same stock over longer periods of time.
Quote from mischief:

My first 'real' trade.

Entered NGAS at 10.41.
Stop at 9.89

Dry up (PDV = Previous Day's Volume) reached by 11am. Stoch > 80 and MACD > 0 at time of entry.

BOOM I considered as another candidate (Stoch & MACD were good as was volume growth through the day), but was discarded as I didn't register it as in Dry-Up the previous day.

I am using 5 different methods of calculating Dry-Up, why try and choose a single one when it appears there is no 'one' best method? If any of the Dry-Up calcuations trigger, then I review the stock.
More...
 
I guess I'll post my interpretation of the rules too. I entered 3 trades today and am still holding all of them.

NGAS @ 10.25 still holding even though it didn't reach FRV, this may be a mistake as it's burned me before, but there was decent price movement in the right direction on the volume that was there (double yesterday's volume).

PWEI @ 23.32 entered this one when it cleared "eyeball" dryup and it attained calculated frv easily, it was a zero. I'm the most leary on this one as it appears to be at the top of a channel.

IFO @12.59 entered on a 3 month caculated DU, the volume on this stock has increased dramatically in the last 3 months so I ignore the previous volume levels. I missed a nice exit point on this one today when it spiked to 13.30. it also made FRV and appears to be breaking up out of an IT downtrending channel. It was a 5 but the price increase yesterday was on very low volume.

any comments are appreciated

rick
 
Quote from mischief:

Sorry Doug, my post was a bit all over the place.

Times are EST (i.e. NY time). I live in Australia, so it was around 7:00 am for me.

I entered the trade at 7:07 am, which was 3:07pm EST.

I reviewed the trade in the morning (my time) and noticed that it had exceeded DU Volume (which was the previous days volume) prior to 11.00am and had trended nicely since then. When I looked to enter the trade, the Stoch was > 80 and MACD > 0.

In one of the Hershey documents I read that FRV was considered 2 - 3 x DUV. Since the volume was over 2 x the previous days volume and all other signs were good, I entered the trade.
SNIP
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Thanks for explanation and good luck on the trade.

Doug
ps-could you send me a case of "Vitamin B" as I acquired a taste for it while on vacation (holiday) in Oz a few years ago

(;
 
Entered HANS this morning but my MEDVED Quotetracker locked up my computer when I hit the buy button. Had to jump on my backup computer got filled at 83.98.

gooch87
 
Quote from gooch87:

Entered HANS this morning but my MEDVED Quotetracker locked up my computer when I hit the buy button. Had to jump on my backup computer got filled at 83.98.
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Nice trade so far. Here's hoping the trend continues in your favor.

- Spydertrader
 
update on trades

exitted ngas @ 10.44 when volume didn't pick right up this morning.

exitted pwei @ 23.70 about 2 minutes before it spiked up a buck :( I was anxious to get out of this one though as i had missed that it was due to report earnings today, it could have just as easily dropped a buck (as it has afterhours) and there's no way that i can find to get a good idea of the time of day earnings will be reported on these smaller companies.

exitted ifo @ 12.67 again about 2 minutes before it spiked up 30 cents.

all trades were a wash

entered lifc today @ 21.16 and exitted this afternoon @ 21.04, for a slight loss

entered hans @ 84.75, a little late as my alerts didn't trigger properly. still holding hans though again it didn't make frv. will probably exit first thing in the morning unless volume looks strong right off the bat.
 
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