Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

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Just an observation for those individuals who may have missed it:

As of the typing of this post, The Dow has lost 140 points since its morning High on the Friday After Thanksgiving. In addition, The Dow remains down around 60 points today. At the same time however, our system continues to generate profitable trade signals to the long side. Therefore, one could reasonably conclude, the system operates independent of overall market direction.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Just an observation for those individuals who may have missed it:

As of the typing of this post, The Dow has lost 140 points since its morning High on the Friday After Thanksgiving. In addition, The Dow remains down around 60 points today. At the same time however, our system continues to generate profitable trade signals to the long side. Therefore, one could reasonably conclude, the system operates independent of overall market direction.

- Spydertrader
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Very interesting observation. I would add there is a higher chance for fake signals during a market uptrend, like we experienced last month.
If stocks are strong in a weak market, it's a good sign of accumulation.
 
Quote from ilganzo:

Very interesting observation. I would add there is a higher chance for fake signals during a market uptrend, like we experienced last month.
If stocks are strong in a weak market, it's a good sign of accumulation.
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Also today we had a larger number of stocks in DU.
I am tempted to think that I should do something to extend the final universe so to have more DU stocks everyday...
 
Quote from coolweb:

Here's some price action analysis
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Let's review the quality of your 'analysis' posted yesterday.

Quote from coolweb:

NGPS won't go up tomorrow
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O.K. You start out strong accurately predicting NGPS would fail to go up. (Score +1)

Quote from coolweb:

BOOM - maybe depending on market buy only above .70
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Maybe? Ooops. Our highest ranked Dry Up Stock today gapped up and continued to run. (Score: -1)

Quote from coolweb:

CTHR - not yet
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Ouch. Another gapper which traded within the range (to this point in the day) and failed to fill. (Score: -1)

Quote from coolweb:

ELOS - above 41
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Another accurate prediction here. ELOS continues to move higher above $41.00 USD. (Score: +1)

Quote from coolweb:

IRIS - go down
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Ack! IRIS continues to trade much higher (currently up $1.42 per share) vs. Friday's close. (Score: -1)

Quote from coolweb:

JMDT above 23.73
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Whoops! JMDT traded in the complete opposite direction. Currently down .90 per share. (Score: -1)

Quote from coolweb:

KNDL - unlikely to go up
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Likely to continue trading above the previous trading day close. (Score: -1)

Quote from coolweb:

PETS - needs a huge breakout with large volume or will break down hard.
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Received neither huge price, nor huge volume breakout. Failed to "break down hard." Currently trades up .21 per share. (Score: -1)

Considering your 'analysis' produced less than ideal results, you might consider, in the future, reviewing the system fundamentals before posting. However, your post does provide an excellent example of why we do not 'predict' the outcome of the next trading day. We anticipate movement and act accordingly. As you proved, 'predicting' often provides significantly inferior results - a lower success rate than flipping a coin. Thank-you for providing a superb example of what not to do.

Continued success to you in your trading career.

- Spydertrader
 
:( :( :(

I bailed on BOOM at $27.05 because I had errands to run this morning, and just got back home....:( :(

Oh well, I guess I'll just have to live with my 14% gain in 3 days....

I flirted with the idea of just setting a stop below the opening 3 minute bar low of 26.30, and in hindsight, that would have been a wonderful idea.

I also, in the 15 minutes I had today at the open, set a target of $27.50 based on the prior high set one month ago, but of course it ran up to $27.49 and went back down....lol

I'm still trying to balance the ol' greed/fear thing....just look at BOOM now....setting a new high as I type...$29......
 
Quote from mrpace:

:( :( :(

I bailed on BOOM at $27.05 because I had errands to run this morning, and just got back home....:( :(

Oh well, I guess I'll just have to live with my 14% gain in 3 days....

I flirted with the idea of just setting a stop below the opening 3 minute bar low of 26.30, and in hindsight, that would have been a wonderful idea.

I also, in the 15 minutes I had today at the open, set a target of $27.50 based on the prior high set one month ago, but of course it ran up to $27.49 and went back down....lol

I'm still trying to balance the ol' greed/fear thing....just look at BOOM now....setting a new high as I type...$29......
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woulda..shoulda... bla bla ...

enjoy the money you made instead! :p

by the way 27.46 would have been my exit , but I was only watching this trade. So who's really sad now? ;-)
 
Quote from Spydertrader:

Let's review the quality of your 'analysis' posted yesterday.



O.K. You start out strong accurately predicting NGPS would fail to go up. (Score +1)



Maybe? Ooops. Our highest ranked Dry Up Stock today gapped up and continued to run. (Score: -1)



Ouch. Another gapper which traded within the range (to this point in the day) and failed to fill. (Score: -1)



Another accurate prediction here. ELOS continues to move higher above $41.00 USD. (Score: +1)



Ack! IRIS continues to trade much higher (currently up $1.42 per share) vs. Friday's close. (Score: -1)



Whoops! JMDT traded in the complete opposite direction. Currently down .90 per share. (Score: -1)



Likely to continue trading above the previous trading day close. (Score: -1)



Received neither huge price, nor huge volume breakout. Failed to "break down hard." Currently trades up .21 per share. (Score: -1)

Considering your 'analysis' produced less than ideal results, you might consider, in the future, reviewing the system fundamentals before posting. However, your post does provide an excellent example of why we do not 'predict' the outcome of the next trading day. We anticipate movement and act accordingly. As you proved, 'predicting' often provides significantly inferior results - a lower success rate than flipping a coin. Thank-you for providing a superb example of what not to do.

Continued success to you in your trading career.

- Spydertrader
More...

coolweb, don't feel bad... what Spydertrader points out is also in some of Van Tharp's expensive material... I think most people got about the same score for the test. :confused:
 
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