Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

[mlsignups]

Quote from Spydertrader:

I have Low band Dry Up Volume for KNDL showing 44,431 shares. I show actual volume for KNDL exceeding this level at 12:32 PM Eastern Time - over an hour after our 11:30 AM cutoff.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=913259>

On my tradestation screen KNDL passed 44,431 at about 11:31 ET on my screen. Stoch was very close, just under 80 (it has been 80 just a few minutes earlier) and MACD looked good, so I luckily took a shot at $24.59.

One of our data sources for volume is incorrect in this case but tradestation definately had it at just over 44,431.

Mike

 

[dougcs]

Quote from mrpace:

That's odd. I had KNDL surpassing dry up (44,431) right around 11:30. Because of the late time, and the fact that MACD was trending down and Stochs weren't quite above 80, I passed on the trade.

I was watching KNDL also and saw it pass the lower band DUV at the 1140 est bar, on a 10 min chart, a couple minutes late, while MACD and Stochastics were above trade plan levels. I did not trade it.

I'm using Tradestation and their data.

DS

 

[Spydertrader]

Quote from mlsignups:

One of our data sources for volume is incorrect in this case but tradestation definitely had it at just over 44,431.

I double checked the numbers. The above posted screenshot used Scottrade data (a backup data source). After switching data providers, my QCharts data (which I use everyday) also showed similar numbers to what you folks had in Tradestation. Actual Volume did exceed Low Band Dry Up Volume at 11:31 AM Eastern Time. Thanks for alerting me to the discrepancy.

- Spydertrader

 

[Spydertrader]

When price rises on low volume, it can often reverse in a hurry leaving everyone running for the exits. KNDL provided several examples of such price action throughout the trading day. Unfortunately, the same low volume which caused the risk of reversal increase in the first place, contributes to the rapid price decline as everyone tries to dump their shares. In the future, an earlier exit, when FRV levels exist well outside the current volume range, may prove to be more prudent than holding until EOD when dealing with low volume stocks. Something to keep in mind for the future.

- Spydertrader

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=913462>

 

[mlsignups]

Quote from Spydertrader:

When price rises on low volume, it can often reverse in a hurry leaving everyone running for the exits. KNDL provided several examples of such price action throughout the trading day. Unfortunately, the same low volume which caused the risk of reversal increase in the first place, contributes to the rapid price decline as everyone tries to dump their shares. In the future, an earlier exit, when FRV levels exist well outside the current volume range, may prove to be more prudent than holding until EOD when dealing with low volume stocks. Something to keep in mind for the future.

- Spydertrader

Your point is well taken. Sometime around 3:30 I realized I'd probably sell KNDL today based on FRV and by the time my fingers got around to it, it had dropped from .80 gain to .50 gain on the day. I still managed to make about 2% but I was minutes (or seconds) away from 3%.

 

[Spydertrader]

NFLX and NGPS I have for tomorrow. As a result of very few Dry Up Stocks, I also plan to watch KNDL, BOOM, FORD, IRIS and NFLX to see if they might present a nice trading opportunity.

Good Trading to all.

- Spydertrader

 

[WilliamV]

Spyder,

It's that time of the month. To review which stocks are maintaing cycle ability and average volume levels. I've noticed some stocks in the final universe list are not meeting the original requirements to make the list. For example DCAI currently has EPS of 70 and an RS of 2, while still maintaining rank , float, pos eps and volume levels.

Out of these indicators, EPS, RS, rank, ps eps, avg volume over 200k, failing rank warrants removal from list if persistent for couple weeks. Would you consider removing a stock from the list if it’s failing to have over 200k avg? What about the others? How would you rank them in terms of importance?

 

[mlsignups]

Quote from Spydertrader:

NFLX and NGPS I have for tomorrow. As a result of very few Dry Up Stocks, I also plan to watch KNDL, BOOM, FORD, IRIS and NFLX to see if they might present a nice trading opportunity.

Good Trading to all.

- Spydertrader

In addition to those if you want to watch a few others that don't quite meet the criteria but are close (I did well w/ 2 of these the last few days)...
Ticker Dryup Low Band FRV Notes
BSM 47800 23967 143400 Under $10 but 5 times over 20%
VIVO 119101 59717 357302 4 times over 20%
SYNA 354035 177513 1062106 5 times over 15% (3 over 20%)


Mike

 

[ilganzo]

Quote from Spydertrader:

NFLX and NGPS I have for tomorrow. As a result of very few Dry Up Stocks, I also plan to watch KNDL, BOOM, FORD, IRIS and NFLX to see if they might present a nice trading opportunity.

Good Trading to all.

- Spydertrader

Spyder, why would you not currently hold BOOM shares? Can you elaborate on this?

 

[gooch87]

Quote from martys:

Hmmm... I must be really out of it this morning. I swear I saw it hit the lower band and scrambling to get into the trade while my 10 month old son screaming at the background.

You were not the only one. I tried to get a good fill on BOOM this morning. I hit the button (my itchy mouse finger) and instead of getting BOOM I got KNDL. In the Quote Tracker program, if you click the ticker symbol in the watch list, it sets up the order window with that stock. While waiting for my BOOM buy opportunity and KNDL takeoff, I forgot about the time. Then I noticed that I was late for my meeting and had to leave in a hurry! Instead of round tripping, I put in a 5% stop and took off. I thought that it would come off the bottom of the channel today. .
I was monitoring KNDL through my cell phone as the price was going up and did not feel too bad about the accidental fill.

It feels much better when you have done your homework, your prepared, get a good fill, and watch it take off like it is supposed to do!

Anyway, so I am long KNDL from 10:51 @ 200 for $24.50 And never got a BOOM fill. I will wait for another one of those; after all, I only have the rest of my life to find one.
We are also lucky we have our friendly neighborhood Spydertrader to keep us on track.

Here is the data from Ameritrade for everyone’s viewing pleasure. A little late... I show KNDL hitting LDV @ 11:28:05 to 20sec.
I could not get a screen shot of the window.

12/01/05 11:26:20 24.63 24.63 24.63 41948
12/01/05 11:26:40 24.63 24.63 24.63 42029
12/01/05 11:26:55 24.63 24.63 24.63 42110
12/01/05 11:27:05 24.62 24.62 24.62 42560
12/01/05 11:27:20 24.63 24.63 24.63 43010
12/01/05 11:27:40 24.56 24.56 24.56 43460
12/01/05 11:27:55 24.56 24.56 24.56 43910
12/01/05 11:28:05 24.53 24.53 24.53 44404
12/01/05 11:28:20 24.60 24.60 24.60 44898
12/01/05 11:28:40 24.50 24.50 24.50 45392
12/01/05 11:28:55 24.60 24.60 24.60 45886

G87