I think it might be difficult to use MSA for a method like this. How does one assume the risk (stop) per trade? 5% (worst case)? You might try it if you recorded a good sample of trades and use worst or average stop as the input? I used the first version and like both the product and the price but it is mainly for mental masturbation unless you already have a solid edge (worked thru various cycles in real time and not backtesting) and try to milk it more (increasing size).
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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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I think it might be difficult to use MSA for a method like this. How does one assume the risk (stop) per trade? 5% (worst case)? You might try it if you recorded a good sample of trades and use worst or average stop as the input? I used the first version and like both the product and the price but it is mainly for mental masturbation unless you already have a solid edge (worked thru various cycles in real time and not backtesting) and try to milk it more (increasing size).
Quote from mlsignups:
Good job (I think!). That is exactly the price I got in at also. I was waiting for a little pullback since it was up but I gave up and took it at this price.
Mike
Funny. That is exactly what I try to do... waiting for pullback but no sign of it around 10:20 and bite the bullet.
P.S. Looks like nothing else happens so I will finish reading my Buddhism book "Blazing Splendor".... best book in years if you are into Tibetan Buddhism.
Hi everyone,
I sold RATE this morning on the open for $30.41 per share. I was too soon as it turns out. Just after I sold it started moving higher up to 32.24 before it started the retrace. Will have to see how much volume at the end of day. I think a better strategy would have been to set tight trailing stop.
I was re-reading the old journal and some of Jacks posts and then analyzing my current position with RATE over the weekend. Jack was saying that after the FRV signal we should look for an increase in volume for the next day, if not, get out. For my RATE purchase the next day had less volume, thus I am out.
I was reading through the old journal to find this sort of situation but no luck. I did notice alot that I had forgotten or missed.
So for my RATE trade, I entered on NOV 17th 166 shares @$30.7 and sold on NOV 21st 166 shares @ $31.75 for a $1.05 profit. or 3.42%
Spydertrader, Is my analysis incomplete, please comment.
G87
I am long $30.41 per share on 100 shares of NGPS at 10:10 am. when it reached LDU of 74,082 with my 2% stop in.
I sold RATE this morning on the open for $30.41 per share. I was too soon as it turns out. Just after I sold it started moving higher up to 32.24 before it started the retrace. Will have to see how much volume at the end of day. I think a better strategy would have been to set tight trailing stop.
I was re-reading the old journal and some of Jacks posts and then analyzing my current position with RATE over the weekend. Jack was saying that after the FRV signal we should look for an increase in volume for the next day, if not, get out. For my RATE purchase the next day had less volume, thus I am out.
I was reading through the old journal to find this sort of situation but no luck. I did notice alot that I had forgotten or missed.
So for my RATE trade, I entered on NOV 17th 166 shares @$30.7 and sold on NOV 21st 166 shares @ $31.75 for a $1.05 profit. or 3.42%
Spydertrader, Is my analysis incomplete, please comment.
G87
I am long $30.41 per share on 100 shares of NGPS at 10:10 am. when it reached LDU of 74,082 with my 2% stop in.
Quote from nzbryant:
Market System Analyzer version 2.0 (http://www.adaptrade.com/) is out now. Very useful for testing how your past trades would have done with different sizing methodologies
Thanks for the link. When I have some free time, I plan to download the program and test various position sizes with the data from the last Journal.
Quote from martys:
I will post my trade while learning... Please critique!
So far, the market appears to agree with your purchase.
Quote from mlsignups:
I was waiting for a little pullback since it was up but I gave up and took it at this price.
I thinking just about everybody wanted to see a small pullback before the train left the station (so to speak).
Quote from martys:
Looks like nothing else happens so I will finish reading my Buddhism book "Blazing Splendor".... best book in years if you are into Tibetan Buddhism.
I also had KNDL and VIVO trigger signals this morning. Unfortunately, neither confirmed. As a result, I took no action with either.
Quote from gooch87:
Spydertrader, Is my analysis incomplete, please comment.
Looking at any of the charts created by the Hershey Chartscripts, notice how volume rarely follows a smooth transition from Dry Up, to FRV, to increasing volume to Peak Volume. In addition price often "takes a break" mid cycle (perhaps dropping 10 to 20 cents) before gapping upward and resuming the trend. As a result, I look to other trends before deciding to exit the day after reaching FRV. IF I don't have increased volume the day after FRV, I look to see if price improved on increased volume at or near the close. IF so, I often hold another day. Even without an increase in volume over FRV. OF course, much of this depends on how price moved during this period. Anything over a 5% gain causes me to lean more toward protecting profits, rather than, remaining in the trade.
Good Trading Everyone.
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