Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

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I've started to track and contribute to this thread and have a question. I will cull through all the old posts to check but thought maybe I could get a quick answer otherwise.

When calculating dryup I would conceptually think you'd be looking for the pattern of volume just prior to each 20% rise, meaning you'd be looking for the lowest volume during each 20 day (or 10 or 5) period before each rise.

Looking a the wealth lab program ( I have to admit I'm not a wealth lab expert) it seems like the scan is going back 20,40,60,80 days from the scan date (today) to calculate the dryup, rather than going back from each rise date.

Am I understanding Wealth Lab program incorrectly or if not can you help me understand the rationale for using these numbers as part of the dryup.

Thanks

Mike
 
I'm going through the old journal to try to answer my question and I came up w/ the following post from about a year ago (part of the post):

DU cycle - add lowest volume during each cycle divided by the number of cycles.

Du 5 - lowest volume averaged 5 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts

Du 10 - lowest volume averaged 10 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts

Du 20 - lowest volume averaged 20 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts (Closest to Chart Script)


If the goal was to use the lowest 20 days prior to each breakout I don't think that is what the script does. Maybe the approach changed later or this was just an approximation?
 
Quote from mlsignups:

Am I understanding Wealth Lab program incorrectly or if not can you help me understand the rationale for using these numbers as part of the dry up.
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The Hershey Chartscripts attempted to calculate Dry Up Volume based on Jack's 'eyeball' definitions. Jack describes his methods in The Hershey Equities Thread. Jack indicated Dry Up Volume as "the lowest volume occurring during a cycle.

Quote from mlsignups:

If the goal was to use the lowest 20 days prior to each breakout I don't think that is what the script does. Maybe the approach changed later or this was just an approximation?
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I tested the DU5, DU10, and DU20 dry up equations in an effort to see which method best determined Dry Up Volume. Unfortunately, no one method proved superior. As a result, I no longer monitor Dry Up Volume based on those equations. I also tested equations coded by SVRZ which attempted to mirror Jack's old TC2000 equations. Ultimately, I settled on using a 'range' of Dry Up Values to calculate Dry Up Volume reflected in the latest version of Hershey Equities Rank v. 3.0.0. I felt using a range more accurately mirrored Jack's 'eyeball' method of Dry Up Volume calculation.

As you read through the Original Journal, you'll encounter frequent commentary around this subject.

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from dougcs:

G87,

I was tracking them also and did not get an entry signal either as they did not meet the conditions you mentioned, and LIFC did not show price improvement from yesterday.

I did not get any sigs today. I was tracking:
FORD
KNDL
LIFC
NGPS
NTRI
NURO

I was long PTC from yesterday and the trade is still showing a gain.

DS
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Congrats on your profitable trade .

I could not trade yesterday or Monday because I was travelling.
G87
 
Hi Doug,

Congrat on your trade! Looking at your posted chart. I think you are using the default MACD setting and not the cheat sheet setting.
 
Spydertrader:

Thanks for the quick response.

I understand your response and your results were outstanding so if it works there is no reason to change - but I'm still curious about the method for dryup....

Wouldn't it make more sense to create something that focuses on recreating a way to capture the volume just prior to each run-up rather than 'just' picking the lowest volume for each of the last 5 months? (which is what I think the wealthlab code is doing)?

When you wrote the summary of the 4 approaches a year ago (copied below) you were focused on lowest volume (using different timespans) during each cycle which is not what you ended up using (unless I am mistaken)?

In the current approach if it so happens that all 5 run-ups occured in the last 3 months the dryup calculation still pulls the lowest from each month and isn't really related?

Thanks; sorry for being a pain; just trying to undestand better.

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DU cycle - add lowest volume during each cycle divided by the number of cycles.

Du 5 - lowest volume averaged 5 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts

Du 10 - lowest volume averaged 10 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts

Du 20 - lowest volume averaged 20 days before breakouts averaged over number of breakouts (Closest to Chart Script)
 
Quote from mrpace:

I also went long NTRI. MY stoch was above 80 (at the time of entry), and MACD was + on the 30min chart. Volume was big off the open, and the gap up was less than 5%.

Why wouldn't this be a valid entry?

I know that by the close of the bar, Stochs were no longer near 80 or above, but I thought we were only concerned about the entry. If it is at 80 or above at time of entry, then it is a go (along with +price and +MACD).


In any event, this one looks like it may cross FRV by EOD, and since it never hit my 2% stop (yet), it looks like it's going to be a hold....

If NTRI is technically not a valid signal, I'd appreciate knowing why....lol
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Hi Mrpace

Here is the chart that I was using when I got the signal. I put a circle around the area on Stoch that is at issue.

G87
 

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Quote from gooch87:

Hi Mrpace

Here is the chart that I was using when I got the signal. I put a circle around the area on Stoch that is at issue.

G87
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Hi gooch87,

I am not questioning your chart... Actually I also suspect the stochastic level too because I did not look after my order was in already for the better or for the worse. In the cheat sheet, SpyderTrader mentioned stochastics and I assume it is the fast stochastics which is the original stochastics. The slow stochastics?? showing on your chart is coded later on for people who want things a little smoother. My assumption could be wrong??
 
Quote from dougcs:

mrpace-
I was watching NTRI also, but did not get an entry as the MACD was never positive on my chart. DUV was exceeded on the first bar.

DS
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Hi dougcs,

If the MACD is set up like this EM1=5 EMA2=13 Smooth=6 then maybe you need backfill the chart so that the MACD carries over from the day before.
G87
 
Quote from martys:

Hi Doug,

Congrat on your trade! Looking at your posted chart. I think you are using the default MACD setting and not the cheat sheet setting.
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Ya caught me; thanks.

DS
 
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