Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II
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Spydertrader, could you elaborate on your entry technique any?
The MACD, STOCH, Price Increase and volume are all well documented, however you've made mention of switching to a 5 minute chart to help determine entry. How does the 5 minute chart help you?
Do you jump in right at the moment the 4 indicators signal?
What if 3 of the 4 are good, but a 4th indicator lags. Do you give it a chance to signal the buy, or do you completely discount the stock if all 4 indicators do not signal at the same time.
As always, thanks very much for your excellent journal posting habits
The MACD, STOCH, Price Increase and volume are all well documented, however you've made mention of switching to a 5 minute chart to help determine entry. How does the 5 minute chart help you?
Do you jump in right at the moment the 4 indicators signal?
What if 3 of the 4 are good, but a 4th indicator lags. Do you give it a chance to signal the buy, or do you completely discount the stock if all 4 indicators do not signal at the same time.
As always, thanks very much for your excellent journal posting habits
I sometimes drop down to a lower time frame (fractal as Jack would say) in order to judge the direction of the short term (minutes) trend. I only do this if price action gives me a confusing signal (such as a pullback off the high at time of signal). If I notice price pulling back on the lower time frame, I might wait until price returns to a point of support before entering.
Normally (assuming both an increasing price and volume) I simply enter the trade upon receiving a signal (Price, Volume, MACD Histogram & Stochastic Indicator exceed threshold levels). When actual volume exceeds calculated Low Band Dry Up Volume, but all other indicators (Price, MACD Histogram & Stochastic Indicator) do not confirm, I continue to monitor the stock in an effort to see if the 'lagging' indicator (as you called it) comes into line. More often than not, the stock simply remains in "no - go" status and no further action is required. I also monitor the volume levels beyond LBDU (Average DU Volume, FRV, etc.) with this stock to see if volume continues to improve. Occasionally, a second signal develops in the same stock (actual volume exceeds FRV before EOD) allowing me another opportunity to enter into a trade.
Finally, I require all portions of the system remain above threshold before I enter a trade. In other words, if the Stochastic Indicator holds at 72, rather than 80, I don't enter into the trade - even those the signal appears to be "close enough." Others have commented in the past how they do take signals which appear "close enough."
I hope the above provided some clarity for you. If I can provide additional clarification, feel free to let me know.
- Spydertrader
Yep, perfect. Thank you!
Did you (or anyone else) trade STV this morning? Was on my list of stocks in DU but I missed the trade. Also, RTSX (another one in DU) looks like it started out good and then fell hard. Is that what is called a false breakout? Both had signals to buy on my charts.
I removed all the AMEX stocks from my Final Universe List last week, and as a result, I no longer calculate Dry Up Volume values for those stocks. Looking at the STV chart, it appears you made a few dollars on that trade. Congrats on it.
With respect to RTSX and other trades made today, I had to close out all my positions this morning due to internet connection repairs required after a recent lightening strike. After three days of intermittent internet outages, it looks as if the repairs (both to the inside cabling and outside streetside cable) finds itself almost fully completed. As a result of closing out early this morning, I walked away with a very small profit on the RTSX trade.
- Spydertrader
In addition to getting burned by the RTSX signal, I got stopped out hard on KNDL as well, which I had bought two days ago....
Took a short on JMDT based on various short signals that have been bandied about on this and the previous thread, and although it gave a nice profit today, I worry it has run into some serious resistance at the $18.50 level....I came very close to covering EOD because of what looked like lots of buying at this level, but I decided instead to stick to the rules laid out by Spydertrader and hold with a trailing stop in place.....JMDT did clear FRV volume by EOD....
Luckily I passed on STV, mainly because Spyder took it off his list (along with the other AMEX stocks). There wasn't much to the trade anyway, as my entry would have been around 19.95-20.00, and it ended the day at 19.85, while simultaneously failing to cross the FRV threshold by EOD.
All in all, an interesting day....still much to learn....
Took a short on JMDT based on various short signals that have been bandied about on this and the previous thread, and although it gave a nice profit today, I worry it has run into some serious resistance at the $18.50 level....I came very close to covering EOD because of what looked like lots of buying at this level, but I decided instead to stick to the rules laid out by Spydertrader and hold with a trailing stop in place.....JMDT did clear FRV volume by EOD....
Luckily I passed on STV, mainly because Spyder took it off his list (along with the other AMEX stocks). There wasn't much to the trade anyway, as my entry would have been around 19.95-20.00, and it ended the day at 19.85, while simultaneously failing to cross the FRV threshold by EOD.
All in all, an interesting day....still much to learn....
Glad to see you have enjoyed some early success trading these methods. Keep up the great work, and once again, congrats on the JMDT short trade.
- Spydertrader
I thought I would post the results of my ongoing papertrade of (essentially) Spyder's and Jack's methodology. I mentioned in the last thread that my methods were a little different than Spyder's, but basically the same. I'm not able to trade this full time either so I may not make as timely decisions as Spyder.
I've completed 61 paper trades today for about 15 weeks of trading this method. According to Spyder's Excel sheet detailing his trading history, by the time he had 61 trades he had the following for statistics:
SpyderTrader
82% Winners (>0%), 57% Winners (>1% Gain)
7.2% Average Gain
-2.6% Average Loss
95% Return on his money
42 weeks trading
131% Annual Expectation (he actually made 113%)
Acesheet
53% Winners (>0%), 34% Winners (>1% Gain)
4.8% Average Gain
-3.04% Average Loss
13.7% Return on the account
15 weeks trading
56% Annual Expectation based on these numbers
At this point my trading of this method is succesful, but not nearly as successful as what SpyderTrader has been able to achieve. I haven't incorporated a max stop loss in my methodology. This is still an ongoing experiment for me.
I've attached my results thus far. Enjoy.
-ace
I've completed 61 paper trades today for about 15 weeks of trading this method. According to Spyder's Excel sheet detailing his trading history, by the time he had 61 trades he had the following for statistics:
SpyderTrader
82% Winners (>0%), 57% Winners (>1% Gain)
7.2% Average Gain
-2.6% Average Loss
95% Return on his money
42 weeks trading
131% Annual Expectation (he actually made 113%)
Acesheet
53% Winners (>0%), 34% Winners (>1% Gain)
4.8% Average Gain
-3.04% Average Loss
13.7% Return on the account
15 weeks trading
56% Annual Expectation based on these numbers
At this point my trading of this method is succesful, but not nearly as successful as what SpyderTrader has been able to achieve. I haven't incorporated a max stop loss in my methodology. This is still an ongoing experiment for me.
I've attached my results thus far. Enjoy.
-ace
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