Quote from Spydertrader:
Congrats on your success.
For the benefit of those who have found it difficult to 'see' the market in the same manner as you, could you elaborate on how you find the FTT's so quickly? Perhaps, you could give an example on what aspects of the market you focus? I believe many would find such a post helpful.
Again, nicely done.
- Spydertrader
Sure, happy to. It will help me to understand if I know why I did what I did or if I was merely lucky.
(This post is in the form of notes to myself, more or less as I'd keep in my own log, and I do not presume to
teach anyone anything about trading. That said, I do hope it is of some value.)
This was a break-through day for me - although only paper trades, the reinforcement of taking timely actions and seeing the anticipated thing happen is starting to create some very strong connections in my brain. I'm attempting to develop a trading equivalent of sports "muscle memory" where eventually I will click T whenever I sense with some confidence that a Point 1 (FTT) has just formed.
Having tried to trade only rockets in the last few months I grew very frustrated that I was getting in way too late and often buying the top or selling the bottom of bars (entering on the left in other words) - the Nikkei makes life very painful for late-comers, they can see you coming and they will whip your ass! (Back in the summer there were 300 - 400 point rockets for several days but I was too inexperienced and disbelieving to take advantage

Little did I know that was the time to make hay. Plenty more time.

)
I felt that I needed permission to get into a trade earlier and FTT grants this. Reading what Spydertrader had discovered and shared recently flicked a switch in my head and gave me the requisite permission. I no longer feel the need to chase a trend as I know entering at the LTL is not a good idea (unless you are witnessing a very fast paced rocket accelerating away). So instead of the anxious feeling of missing the ride, wondering when to get in, you wait patiently for the inevitable FTT that will come along preceding the next ride in the other direction.
I've noticed, and Jack's channel doc explains, the major FTTs normally occur when the market is having a second or third go at driving the price to the existing LTL of the major signal-carrying channel. You anticipate a FTT at some point and prepare. Price is testing the left of the channel but cannot get there, despite volume. Either there will be a swift and violent reversal or it will sit there mid channel for a while, in a dwell point. If you see a FTT of your traversing micro-channel as well as a FTT of the major trend signal-carrier channel, you pretty well know it is a major FTT and worth a trade. At this point you
know nothing about the coming price move, but in risk reward terms it is a pretty good bet.
I've also noticed that you sometimes get a second chance, further confirmation and perhaps a better price if you wait just a little longer during this dwell point - patience and alertness all at the same time. You may even choose your price and hope to get taken in on a limit order at the new TL (as close to Point 1 as possible). Incidentally volume is a great leading indicator in the Nikkei, but you have to be lightening fast - you have maybe 5-20 seconds to decide before price is sitting at a new LTL.
At the point of entry you are at risk. You accept this risk because of your experience and anticipation of what getting in on a Point 1 means to you if it goes your way. If it doesn't move as anticipated, then wash. Don't hesitate to get out if it is not behaving as anticipated, you will get another chance to enter, or if you miss the move you learn something from the sidelines. The risk is unacceptable if you hold for too long in a dwell point with no volume. The reason to enter has gone, so get out. This is where fine tuning is required, but these refinements will come with time.
I paper-traded all last week as I needed to focus on points and method and remove the money and fear of loss from the equation temporarily at this stage in my learning. Now I know what works in a no stress, no risk setting adding the money layer back (1 contract) will allow me to see where the real problems are coming from.
I've been watching the Nikkei daily for the last 4 or 5 months, so I am developing a feel for its moves. The Nikkei has a 5 point tick size, each point is 500 yen ($4-5) which means a roundtrip on market orders "costs" about $40 before you've made a cent from a move. So entering on a limit order and exiting on market seems to make sense, if the market lets you.
See the chart, attached.
Trade 1: second bar after ftt at 08:40. I entered in the initial steep channel, but would have got a better price if I'd got in one bar later at the close of the NP3 bar that confirmed a gentler sloping long TL. No matter, my worst exposure was -10 points (2 ticks) for a couple of minutes and I believed in the long as the short TL had been breached (not a FBO as far as I could tell). The long takes off on the next bar 08:55 and there is range expansion and I hold until the first bar doesn't make it to the LTL. Take profits, +20 points (16945 - 16965)
Trade 2: 09:24 short 16960, wash 16960.
Trade 3: 11:50 long 16890. Again, I entered one bar earlier than optimum and so didn't get the best price available (16880 was possible at market - an execution error on my part). This is like a "failed rocket" trade, lots of short covering. Hold until next ftt at 12:10 bar. Take profits, +25 points (16890 - 16915)
Trade 4: 12:37 long 16885 after ftt of both the traverse micro channel AND the larger red trend channel. Stopped out at 12:54, +5 points. (Stop placed way too close to the action - too fearful.)
Trade 5: 13:24 long 16905. Seeing I had been shaken out of a good trade (Trade 4) I seek a way back in to the up trend and get my opportunity with a limit order close to the TL and SMA20. So I take the second leg of the move and exit at 13:35 when it seems the LTL will not be touched again. Take profits, +40 points (16905 - 16945), 1 tick from the peak of the move.
Day +90 points. Range 110 points (80% of range).
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The quest for FTTs and the associated "Point Ones" seems to be the essence of index day-trading, so I'm changing my ET handle to PointOne.
PointOne (justyield)