Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Attached Chart.
For the people having some trouble with channels I wanted to share some thoughts. I've been trading various instruments for close to 15 years. I'm a bit slower than most so I do lots of drills or repetition to get something down. Did lots of hindsight drawing on channels and tried to do it as if the chart was unfolding. Couldn't really see the whole projecting them out thing at that time, but it seemed reasonable, though a bit mystical for me - think Gann, Drummond geometry, sprial calendar, etc. My current software didn't allow for projecting the channels.
Tried the 30 day trial at Qcharts and after drawing them in real time I found I couldn't really live without them. My old software was almost useless now. Even if you don't believe they work or are valid, (spyder has said accept that they do provisionally), it will give you a framework to better analize the market. Puts the data in a defined area or box, if you will.
Like most I struggle with FTT, especially in real time. You could view them as just a failure pattern. Longer term it could look like a 1,2,3 top or in the shorter term it just doesn't hit the top of the channel. You really need the channel to see it clearly. It's showing you a point when momentum is failing and the market direction is changing. The hard part for me is determining real time if it's just a pause in the action, especially for the short term narrow channels. It's easier on the larger channels.
Say we were trying to pick tops and bottoms in a move, a moving average gets you in and out very late. Not good, try something else. Instead start using Price/Volume, channels and indicators - each level helps you get closer to the top and bottom and get a bigger chunk. It's not always cut and dry but that is to be expected. As you look at these things in finer detail or smaller time frames you get a bigger chunk of the move.
As far as ambiguity, sometimes in life you have to make the best decision you can with the info you have at the time. Then change it if you made a mistake ASAP. In trading, as you gain experience there should be less wash or losing trades and less ambiguity. It takes work. And usually I have to hear a concept put in several forms or from several viewpoints before something clicks. Eventually it does but it can be very frustrating in the meantime, trying to figure out exactly what it is that you're not seeing or getting.
Hope this is encouraging to all those struggling to improve.
Regards,
EZ
Tried the 30 day trial at Qcharts and after drawing them in real time I found I couldn't really live without them. My old software was almost useless now. Even if you don't believe they work or are valid, (spyder has said accept that they do provisionally), it will give you a framework to better analize the market. Puts the data in a defined area or box, if you will.
Like most I struggle with FTT, especially in real time. You could view them as just a failure pattern. Longer term it could look like a 1,2,3 top or in the shorter term it just doesn't hit the top of the channel. You really need the channel to see it clearly. It's showing you a point when momentum is failing and the market direction is changing. The hard part for me is determining real time if it's just a pause in the action, especially for the short term narrow channels. It's easier on the larger channels.
Say we were trying to pick tops and bottoms in a move, a moving average gets you in and out very late. Not good, try something else. Instead start using Price/Volume, channels and indicators - each level helps you get closer to the top and bottom and get a bigger chunk. It's not always cut and dry but that is to be expected. As you look at these things in finer detail or smaller time frames you get a bigger chunk of the move.
As far as ambiguity, sometimes in life you have to make the best decision you can with the info you have at the time. Then change it if you made a mistake ASAP. In trading, as you gain experience there should be less wash or losing trades and less ambiguity. It takes work. And usually I have to hear a concept put in several forms or from several viewpoints before something clicks. Eventually it does but it can be very frustrating in the meantime, trying to figure out exactly what it is that you're not seeing or getting.
Hope this is encouraging to all those struggling to improve.
Regards,
EZ
A few I am keeping my eye on .....
BITS CTRN ININ OMRI SIM SIRF SMSI XING
and for something only slightly outside the box ...
TWPG
- Spydertrader
BITS CTRN ININ OMRI SIM SIRF SMSI XING
and for something only slightly outside the box ...
TWPG
- Spydertrader
Mr. Spydertrader, sir (g!) - I happened upon a couple links today which you had posted over in the "Raiders of the Lost Arche" thread concerning drawing channel lines and such, but alas, when I returned, they had apparently been deleted ( no comment - I do my best to stay out of forum skirmishes - lol)
I would like to learn more about these techniques, but to be honest, I do not have the motivation to read the previous 750 odd pages. I believe I started to do so a while back, but sensed this methodology was heavily weighted toward trading stocks and I do not participate in that arena.
Would you happen to have links that would direct me to a discussion of directions on how to construct the channels, and also to any area within the thread that defines FTT and SCT? Sorry to be asking for shortcuts - guess I was tapped from a lazy gene pool! Thanks...
I would like to learn more about these techniques, but to be honest, I do not have the motivation to read the previous 750 odd pages. I believe I started to do so a while back, but sensed this methodology was heavily weighted toward trading stocks and I do not participate in that arena.
Would you happen to have links that would direct me to a discussion of directions on how to construct the channels, and also to any area within the thread that defines FTT and SCT? Sorry to be asking for shortcuts - guess I was tapped from a lazy gene pool! Thanks...
Hi TNG,
Here is my evaluation of MGPI. It is the same for BITS and LQDT. I decided to run my final universe through the chartscript to find the ones that have rank. Notice, MGPI and LQDT do not have rank. The notes I made in the chart show the reason why I mentioned them. YMMV
Good trading to you,
G87
<img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1293939"></img>
I apologize for interrupting the "Lost Arch" discussion. I should not have responded, and simply let things slide. However, I am happy to provide you with the assistance you requested.
These posts explain what is the FTT. It's quite simple, but takes some practice to catch in real time.
Post One
Post Two
Post Three
As for drawing channels and trend lines:
See the Channels for Building Wealth v2.2.pdf. In addition, Jack describes the channel drawing process, step by step, in DbPhoenix's Determining Trend. I recommend reviewing Jack's .gif files first.
SCT = Seamless Continuous trading
FTT = Failure To Traverse
I hope you find the above information useful.
- Spydertrader
Thanks alot - much appreciated! Regards ...
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