Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II

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This is my analysis on BTUI, I'd be interested in others' opinions.

On the daily chart, price was at the lower IT trend, as per the channels represented in Spyder's Wealth Lab scripts. This channel is trending up also. Price has been at the bottom of the shorter downward channel that I have annotated on the chart, and trending up.

MACD has been increasing, and yesterday breached 0, whilst stochastics are heading up, with the Fast stochastics (5,2,3) exceeding 50.

The only other thing I needed, was volume. Today it exceeded the DU figures before 10:30am, and Unusual Volume was at about 28% just after 10:00am. This has been quite unusual for BTUI from what I can see, whose volume has been modest at best lately. Luckily I squeezed in just after the LBDU alarm and before much larger orders came in and lifted the spread and volatility.

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Quote from rickylc:

came late to the party again today, but still got in BTUI @ 13.04

holding overnight
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Well done on entering after the substantial move, only to see price continue in your favour. I also wanted to enter MIKR today, but my biases prevented me from that execution.
 
Quote from cipherscribe:

This is my analysis on BTUI, I'd be interested in others' opinions.

On the daily chart, price was at the lower IT trend, as per the channels represented in Spyder's Wealth Lab scripts. This channel is trending up also. Price has been at the bottom of the shorter downward channel that I have annotated on the chart, and trending up.

MACD has been increasing, and yesterday breached 0, whilst stochastics are heading up, with the Fast stochastics (5,2,3) exceeding 50.

The only other thing I needed, was volume. Today it exceeded the DU figures before 10:30am, and Unusual Volume was at about 28% just after 10:00am. This has been quite unusual for BTUI from what I can see, whose volume has been modest at best lately. Luckily I squeezed in just after the LBDU alarm and before much larger orders came in and lifted the spread and volatility.
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cipher,
That is a beautiful thing isn't it.:D
I think you did it just right.
Congrats.
gooch87
 
Quote from gooch87:

cipher,
That is a beautiful thing isn't it.:D
I think you did it just right.
Congrats.
gooch87
More...

:D It sure is! Thanks very much for the positive feedback. May the stars continue to line up for us all!

Just got another AMEX stock come up on my screen... BTJ. This is the second one in as many weeks. SIM was the other one. Oh well. For me at least, there seems to be plenty of picking from the existing FU at the moment.
 
Exited GIGM @ 10.67, Resulting in a net loss of 2.65%. Volume had dried up measurably yesterday, and yesterday was clearly the day to exit. Had I have done so, it would have been a wash trade. Today was the 4th day in the trade.

Looks like it suffered from a failure to traverse, but time will tell.

There has been a lot of efforts placed by Spydertrader on getting the entry techniques right, however I seem to be showing a lack of ability to handle exits.

Spydertrader teaches us to use the Offset method as the preferred method of using stops. It provides a "last resort" exit strategy, allowing the trader to concentrate on using technical’s to provide the exit signals. I don't seem to recall a lot of emphasis in this area, but I could be (and have known to be!) wrong. Can someone point me in the direction of learning exits, as they may apply to the Hershey method?

For example, I have an open position with BTUI. It looks great on the daily, but if I am using 30 minute charts to execute, what should I be looking for there, given the stock is down over 2% today? Low Stochastics, MACD, i.e. the opposite of the buying triggers? Or should I wait until the Daily indicates a possible reverse, then exit the next day? (If under the 4 day time limit)?

Lots of questions, now that I have changed from using tight trailing stops to the Offset method.
 
I could use some help with exists also. I have a hard time watching nice little gains of 4-6% get taken away in the next down day.

Should most of your sell decisions be based on daily chart activity when your goal is bigger gains within a larger channel - our 10% goal?

For example, I got into MIKR yesterday at about 12.97 with an end of day gain of about 4%. Today I watched all those gains get quickly taken back and for a short period I was in about a 1% loss. I kept it to see it if it would get support at around 13 (based on the daily chart channels), which so far it has. But, if I had not seen a place close to my buy price where I thought it might get support I think I would have sold it for a wash.

As for BTUI, yesterday it popped above the 200 day moving average at around $13. You might see if it gets support at that level, and consider existing if it does not. (Just now it lost support at that level and is falling to the downside.)
 
Thank you for your response Opentrader. One of the things I believe from the Hershey method is that it’s critical to base your decisions in the right timeframe, or Fractal. I think making decisions to buy based on the daily, then executing on the 30 minute is an excellent strategy.

However logic tells me that I should be doing the same thing when selling, otherwise I will get tossed around by the market’s volatility. I seem to remember Spyder frequently adopting a stop that allows for some ‘wiggle room’. I think your right about the support and resistance at a daily level, and perhaps the answer is to incorporate the daily support and resistance zones within the 30 minute chart.

I guess it comes down to your own personal trading timeframe. Day-traders would probably have exited both MIKR and BTUI for the near 5% profits they gave them at the time. I’m trying to look at the 4 day timeframe, and retrieve a greater result over the increased time period. This necessarily means that my holdings will also undergo greater volatility.

I am still holding BTUI and COGO as I can’t quite decipher all of tomorrows newspaper today, but my mistakes form part of my learning process, which is never a bad thing. Looking at the updated daily for today, I see the following:

I see that BTUI popped out of the channel yesterday. This might have been my signal to exit. I don’t watch the market all day, and I don’t particularly like profit stops. So perhaps the correct strategy would have been to sell on open today. Time will tell.

COGO on the other hand, whilst still within the channel, has racked up another 20% gain in 8 days, ending yesterday. This point also would have been a good exit strategy, in my mind.

I think I need to keep both of these points in mind when identifying possible exits.

Looking at MIKR, I see it has neither exited the channel, nor has it reached the 20% cycle on this recent push up. When calculating cycles, I don’t believe two cycles can intersect one another, so the most recent low for this cycle would be 11.80 on the 12th Oct. This would make $14.16 another 20% cycle, which lies right on the top channel line. So using what I have learnt above, I would be watching closely this price, and potentially exiting here, giving you around 9% return. MIKR closed a decent amount above the low, so this may indicate these prices were rejected as a result of supply and demand. However MIKR has many long tails, due to its volatility. MACD and stochastics still look ok.

Not sure if this helps you, it helped me to analyse my potential mistakes.
 
Thanks for your insights.

I would like to thank rcar1046 for some additions he just made to the Hershey Equity Trading Utility. It now tells you (within the culling function) what exchange the stock trades on (so you can avoid the American exchange), and it also tells what percentage of insider ownership there is for each stock (for those who want to apply the 25% culling option.)

Check out the new additions here:
http://www.thercproject.com/hershey/funcs.asp
 
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