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Spydertrader's Jack Hershey Equities Journal II
- Thread starter Spydertrader
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Quote from Spydertrader:
I appreciate your contributions to the discussion. Thank-you once again for re-posting this valuable information. I believe many will find your insights helpful as the sequences relate to both equities and futures trading.
Good Trading to you.
- Spydertrader
Thank you for your contributions to the new thread on rocket rollouts and rocket launches.
That is an interesting article for a systems trader. But I do not believe that you should pin yourself down to firm stop losses because all trades are not created equal. There are trades where you should use massive leverage otherwise you will never reach the next level.
A couple of things I look at to increase my odds of winning are ROE and the number of up weeks versus down weeks on above average volume. You may want to incorporate the latter indicator in your trading because IBD has provided firm statistics on this indicator. If you ever see a chart where the up volume weeks swamp the down by a large margin in the base you usually have a winner. A good example is TRAD from 11/04 to 6/05. Up weeks on above average volume swamped down by a 9:3 ratio.
BTW thanks for mentioning GROW at the Tucson IBD meeting. It hadn't popped up on my screens and it proved to be a very profitable trade. If you hadn't metnioned it I would have totally missed the trade.
A couple of things I look at to increase my odds of winning are ROE and the number of up weeks versus down weeks on above average volume. You may want to incorporate the latter indicator in your trading because IBD has provided firm statistics on this indicator. If you ever see a chart where the up volume weeks swamp the down by a large margin in the base you usually have a winner. A good example is TRAD from 11/04 to 6/05. Up weeks on above average volume swamped down by a 9:3 ratio.
BTW thanks for mentioning GROW at the Tucson IBD meeting. It hadn't popped up on my screens and it proved to be a very profitable trade. If you hadn't metnioned it I would have totally missed the trade.
Quote from Spydertrader:
Let us know how it turns out if you choose to investigate it further.
- Spydertrader
I have tried to create a sheet that compares the PRV to a 8 day vol MA. I had a few test rows working and then went ahead and typed in my universe of stocks.
Of course, after typing in the universe, the excel sheet doesnt seem to quite work. This was my first go around with Qcharts and I am not really familiar with Qlinks....
If anyone would look into the sheet and help, It would be greatly appreciated. Worst case scenario is you receive a Universe List.
Attachments
Simulated Trade Results
Thank you Spyder for your efforts in keeping this forum relevant!
Some observations
1. August was the first month (out of the six months that I kept stats for) that all of the
stocks traded acheived DUAVG before 1130 and subsequently achieved FRV before the end
of the day.
Considering we are in the summer low volume trading doldrums in August what
caused this high volume?
Is it the popularity if this forum?
2. The mechanical exit rules that this system uses prematurely got me out of trades with
small gains and losses. This can be dramaticaly improved using trendlines.
This has been mentioned several times in this forum. I am not suggesting anything new
but I am recomfirming this observation.
Note - The Trendlines on the graph was generated by the latest hershey script that SpyderTrader
posted here recently. The trendline in the center was eyeballed in as a visual queue
only.
10% line = 10% gain calculated from entry price.
SO = Stop Offset calculated with script Offset Percent.
D1_YCS = Stop used when price went below yesterday closing price.
5% TS = Stop used when price moves 5% below daily high.
SUMMARY
NASDAQ S&P500 RUSSEL 200 % Profit
% Change % Change
Feb-06 -1 0 0 -2.7
Mar-06 2.3 1 4.7 23.4
Apr-06 0 1 0 22.3
May-06 -6.2 -3 -5.6 20.4
Jun-06 0 0 0 21.4
Jul-06 -3.9 0 -3.3 -9.7
Aug-06 4.9 2.1 2.8 0.3
AUGUST SUMMARY
IPSU, 02-AUG-06, 1000, $In: 26.89, 03-AUG-06, 1000, $Out: 27.09, % Pft: .7, DUAVG < 1130,
IPSU, 28-AUG-06, 1030, $In: 30.21, 28-AUG-06, 1100, $Out: 29.08, % Pft: -3.7,DUAVG < 1130,
MGPI, 22-AUG-06, 1030, $In: 21.56, 23-AUG-06, 1100, $Out: 22.3, % Pft: 3.4, DUAVG < 1130,
NEU, 03-AUG-06, 1030, $In: 51.99, 04-AUG-06, 1230, $Out: 52.4, % Pft: .8, DUAVG < 1130,
NEU, 21-AUG-06, 1030, $In: 61.17, 23-AUG-06, 1400, $Out: 60.65, % Pft: -.9,DUAVG < 1130,
SUMMARY 01-AUG-06 TO 06-SEP-06 DULOW TIME=1030 CYCLES= 5 PROFIT: .3 TradeCnt: 5
***
Trades %Profit
DUAVG < 1130 5 .3
DUAVG > 1130 0 0
Thank you Spyder for your efforts in keeping this forum relevant!
Some observations
1. August was the first month (out of the six months that I kept stats for) that all of the
stocks traded acheived DUAVG before 1130 and subsequently achieved FRV before the end
of the day.
Considering we are in the summer low volume trading doldrums in August what
caused this high volume?
Is it the popularity if this forum?
2. The mechanical exit rules that this system uses prematurely got me out of trades with
small gains and losses. This can be dramaticaly improved using trendlines.
This has been mentioned several times in this forum. I am not suggesting anything new
but I am recomfirming this observation.
Note - The Trendlines on the graph was generated by the latest hershey script that SpyderTrader
posted here recently. The trendline in the center was eyeballed in as a visual queue
only.
10% line = 10% gain calculated from entry price.
SO = Stop Offset calculated with script Offset Percent.
D1_YCS = Stop used when price went below yesterday closing price.
5% TS = Stop used when price moves 5% below daily high.
SUMMARY
NASDAQ S&P500 RUSSEL 200 % Profit
% Change % Change
Feb-06 -1 0 0 -2.7
Mar-06 2.3 1 4.7 23.4
Apr-06 0 1 0 22.3
May-06 -6.2 -3 -5.6 20.4
Jun-06 0 0 0 21.4
Jul-06 -3.9 0 -3.3 -9.7
Aug-06 4.9 2.1 2.8 0.3
AUGUST SUMMARY
IPSU, 02-AUG-06, 1000, $In: 26.89, 03-AUG-06, 1000, $Out: 27.09, % Pft: .7, DUAVG < 1130,
IPSU, 28-AUG-06, 1030, $In: 30.21, 28-AUG-06, 1100, $Out: 29.08, % Pft: -3.7,DUAVG < 1130,
MGPI, 22-AUG-06, 1030, $In: 21.56, 23-AUG-06, 1100, $Out: 22.3, % Pft: 3.4, DUAVG < 1130,
NEU, 03-AUG-06, 1030, $In: 51.99, 04-AUG-06, 1230, $Out: 52.4, % Pft: .8, DUAVG < 1130,
NEU, 21-AUG-06, 1030, $In: 61.17, 23-AUG-06, 1400, $Out: 60.65, % Pft: -.9,DUAVG < 1130,
SUMMARY 01-AUG-06 TO 06-SEP-06 DULOW TIME=1030 CYCLES= 5 PROFIT: .3 TradeCnt: 5
***
Trades %Profit
DUAVG < 1130 5 .3
DUAVG > 1130 0 0
Sometimes I think you have to take the dryup scan with a grain of salt. For example, it suggests NEU is in drup on 9/08. But to my eye the volume just does not look in dryup.
Does anyone else sometimes ignore the chartscript when their eye tells them a different story?
Thanks for your help.
Does anyone else sometimes ignore the chartscript when their eye tells them a different story?
Thanks for your help.
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